Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[MaxQue]

From the looks, the less (theorically) NDP-friendly riding in Vancouver Island is Nanaimo-Alberni.

Well, I could check that by calculating notionials next week...

[MaxQue]

Naniamo--Alberni looks like it's getting more NDP friendly. It loses some NDP areas, but gains some from Courtenay. Still probably a Tory hold.

I know, but Vancouver Island North gains NDP areas too.
Well, if someone search an area where redistricting is bad for NDP, check the plans for the current riding of BC Southern Interior.

[MaxQue]

Also, looks like Jean Crowder has been pushed out of her riding. Maybe she'll run in the new South Cowichan riding.

And Randall Garrison would run in Esquimalt-Colwood?

[MaxQue]

What bugs me about riding names in Canada is how long some of them can get, often naming three or four communities in the riding as its name. I mean, I get why, but if a riding takes over five seconds to actually just say...

Quebec is a pretty bad offender.

People actually complain when they feel not included in the name. The case of my riding is wonderful.
Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik before 2004, Nunavik-Eeyou after, renamed to Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou later, as most population is in Abitibi and in Baie James (Eeyou means "our land" in some Native language, it doesn't belong there, I think). The previous name was better, I think.

[MaxQue]

I'll be interested to see the Ontario and Quebec proposals.

Well, they should be the 2 last ones we'll get.
Any idea why PEI is so long? It shouldn't be that complicated!

[MaxQue]

It would be nice to have the redistribution numbers for all of the proposed ridings in every province (except NB, I saw someone do that on their blog already).

I'm doing Newfoundland, it should be finished soon (only SW is still to do).
You should put the link for the NB results.

[MaxQue]

Labrador (no change)
Conservative : 4 256 votes (39.8%)
Liberal : 4 177 votes (39.1%)
NDP : 2 120 votes (19.8%)
Greens : 139 votes (1.3%)

St. John's South – Mount Pearl (no change)
NDP : 18 681 votes (47.9%)
Liberal : 11 130 votes (28,6%)
Conservative : 8 883 votes (22.8%)
Green : 291 votes (0.8%)

St. John's North (current)            St. John's North (proposed)
NDP : 31 388 votes (71.2%)            NDP : 26 382 votes (71.0%)
Conservative : 9 198 votes (20.9%)         Conservative : 7 759 votes (20.9%)
Liberal : 3 019 votes (6.9%)            Liberal : 2 586 votes (7.0%)
Green : 467 votes (1.1%)            Green : 412 votes (1.1%)

Avalon (current)               Avalon (proposed)
Liberal : 16 008 votes (44.0%)         Conservative : 13 613 votes (38.4%)
Conservative : 14 749 votes (40.5%)         Liberal : 12 329 votes (34.8%)
NDP : 5 157 votes (14.2%)            NDP : 9 085 votes (25.6%)
Other : 276 votes (0.8%)            Green : 224 votes (0.6%)
Green : 218 votes (0.6%)            Other : 215 votes (0.6%)

Random—Burin—St. George (current)      Bonavista—Burin—Trinity (proposed)
Liberal : 12 914 votes (49.7%)         Liberal : 16 563 votes (54.7%)
Conservative : 8 322 votes (32.0%)         Conservative : 9 126 votes (30.1%)
NDP : 4 465 votes (17.2%)            NDP : 4 261 votes (14.1%)
Green : 307 votes (1.2%)            Green : 263 votes (0.9%)
                     Other : 61 votes (0.2%)

Bonavista—Gander—Grand Falls—Windsor   Bay d'Espoir—Central—Notre Dame (proposed)
(current)
Liberal : 17 977 votes (57.7%)         Liberal : 15 901 votes (54.7%)
Conservative : 8 595 votes (27.6%)         Conservative : 8 916 votes (30.7%)
NDP : 4 306 votes (13.8%)            NDP : 3 940 votes (13.5%)
Green : 279 votes (0.9%)            Green : 256 votes (0.9%)
                     Other : 68 votes (0.2%)

Humber—St. Barbe—Baie Verte (current)      Long Range Mountains (proposed)
Liberal : 17 199 votes (57.0%)         Liberal : 19 658 votes (55.1%)
Conservative : 7 559 votes (25.2%)         Conservative : 9 009 votes (25.2%)
NDP :    4 751 votes (15.8%)            NDP : 6 399 votes (17.9%)
Other : 332 votes (1.1%)            Green : 369 votes (1.0%)
Green : 253 votes (0.8%)            Other : 264 votes (0.7%)

[MaxQue]

Quebec plan is published.

Earl, you'll hate it, there is a ton of ridings named about people, like Gilles Villeneuve.

[MaxQue]

http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=qc&dir=media&document=jul1612&lang=e

Contrary to expectations, Montreal is heavily redistricted. Laurier--Sainte-Marie and Westmount--Vile-Marie are totally split.

Funilly, a Plateau--Mile-End seat is proposed. They decided to add a district in Montreal.

[MaxQue]

Mount Royal is in a riding strechting to the airport.

My home riding: Abitibi-Nunavik is quite unchanged, while Outremont is badly hurt. Areas to the northwest are added and parts of the downtown too. The Mile End is lost to the new Plateau-Mile End (would Mulcair move there? It includes the strongest NDP area of Outremont.)

[MaxQue]

I also don't know what do to with the names "Shawinigane" and "La Chute".

[MaxQue]

Wait, is this some sort of practical joke? Ok guys, where's the real proposal?

One thing I'll say for it: how they handled the Outaouais problem.

Western Quebec is very good, only have an issue with a name (Petite Nation).

[MaxQue]

Here's some suggested names (submitted for your approval)

Abitibi--Nunavik: Vallee-de-l'Or--Jamesie--Kativik
Abitibi--Temiscamingue: Abitibi--Temiscamingue--Rouyn-Noranda

No, no and no. Abitibi doesn't refer to the counties, but to the region of the same name. Anyways, nobody calls Abitibi county that name, because of the confusion with the region. They call it Amos-Région.

The current names are almost perfect, except than I would say Abitibi--Baie James--Nunavik.
Jamesie and Kativik are artificial names not used by people.

[MaxQue]

Given that the commission is clearly trolling us, I feel like seriously proposing the name 'Justin-Bieber' for the new Perth-Wellington riding.

And Prince Edward-Hastings to be renamed Avril-Lavigne?

.. i suppose i could support Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry being re-named Pierre Fitch But since that might be too controversial... Ryan Gosling sounds fun

Who is that person?

[MaxQue]

They did respect the boundary between Outaouais and Laurentides to the south but had to break it to the north. But they had no choice since Outaouais doesn't have the numbers to have fully 4 ridings.

That isn't an issue. The border isn't clear at all on the ground in the northern Laurentides.

[MaxQue]

Côte-Saint-Luc is very wealthy.

On another issue, I suppose I should email the commission next month to comment, being concerned by those changes as a Quebec elector.

[MaxQue]

My analysis of Western Quebec: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/07/quebec-federal-riding-proposal-analysis.html

The reason why Abitibi-Témiscamningue didn't lose population is Rouyn-Noranda, which is growing in population (but less than Vallée-de-l'Or). Still under average provincial growth, through.

[MaxQue]

My analysis of Western Quebec: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/07/quebec-federal-riding-proposal-analysis.html

The reason why Abitibi-Témiscamningue didn't lose population is Rouyn-Noranda, which is growing in population (but less than Vallée-de-l'Or). Still under average provincial growth, through.

What's up with that? One wouldn't expect the area to be growing. I think Nord du Quebec is growing because of the Native baby boom.

Because of the crisis, the prize of the metals rose, creating a mining boom here. The main factor blocking growth is the absence of housing. Inoccupancy rates are at or near 0%.

For Montreal, all Jews aren't Conservative. See the Orthodox ones in Outremont.

[MaxQue]

There are also a lot of left-leaning Jews in Montreal who vote NDP or misguidedly Liberal...they tend not to live in god-awful places like Cote St. Luc though.

Well, if you live there, you're quite wealthy.

[MaxQue]

Uhh, no, speaking as someone quite familiar with the area.

Well, it's the impression the French Quebecers have and as all three commissionners are French...

[MaxQue]

Was there any change to Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River? i think no?

Yes, but the number of electors moved is probably very low, as it includes nothing but road and empty land. Perhaps a couple of farms.

[MaxQue]

PEI published its map.

I quote the very short report

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[MaxQue]

Well, I'm writing a submission to them this week, than I send later this week.

[MaxQue]

NO - the new Nickel Belt-Temiskaming becomes more competitive for the tories i suspect, infact you would have two incumbents running...

I doubt it...the Tory MP for Nipissing-Timiskaming who won by just 18 votes would obviously run in the new riding of Nipissing which is now much more solidly Tory, rather than run against an NDP incumbent from Nickel Belt.

Correct. Remember, the Timiskaming area is fairly NDP (look at it provincially). The new area added to Nipissing (where my cottage is) is very Tory. It is very very WASPy. Probably one of the most Protestant parts of the province.

The Timiskaming area is clearly northern and follow Northern voting pattern. The biggest city, Timiscaming Shores, made by the merger of New Liskeard, Haileybury and Cobalt. Obviously, mining is pretty big in that area and it's much more silimar to Kirkland Lake than it is with North Bay.

For a previous post, problem with Oro-Medonte, Springwater and names like that are they are townships names. There, everybody uses the name of their village, not the township (I have family in that area, in Essa township.), so I know a bit about that area despite being far from Abitibi.

[MaxQue]

Ok, what about Barrie-Kempenfelt? Surely "Barrie North" is ridiculous.

I agree than "Barrie North" is a strange name. The problem with Kempenfelt is than it could describe both Barrie North and Barrie South.