MD-SEN 2024: Cardin retiring, Hogan IN

[Oppo]

I would note that Trone has a record of winning by large margins in a competitive district (particularly when he was heavily targeted in 2022) while Alsobrooks has run unopposed in all four general elections she has taken part in.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Alsobrooks is down 3 in primary let's wait til Primary is over Hogan isn't winning+10

[henster]

I'm wary of Alsobrooks DA record, that could be a big can of worms. I'm sure there's a few cases Hogan will warp to paint her as weak on crime and PG County's crime rate is nothing to write home about. Or she gets the Harris treatment and groups paint her as locking up too many POC. I think DA/judges really make for mediocre candidates when they run for higher office because the way you can pick apart every case.

[wbrocks67]

Interesting that Trone has gone negative in his latest ad. Something tells me he's not up 30% like that Wapo poll had him

[Pollster]

I've stayed quiet about this race as I'm heavily involved in it personally and professionally - my partner and I are personal friends with Angela Alsobrooks and I've polled it at multiple different points this cycle for multiple different clients - but I do think the media/online perception of this primary is drastically different from the way it's actually playing out.

A lot of this is because of the behind-the-scenes stuff going on - there's a ton of interpersonal politics and rivalries at play here, and things being taken into consideration by national party folks that don't usually factor into races like this, and for this reason it's probably going to get very ugly very quickly in these final weeks.

Alsobrooks is a real knife-fighter, her 2018 PG County executive campaign against Donna Edwards was vicious and very effective. She may not be able to get as aggressive in a higher-profile, statewide race and may need to outsource a lot of the dirtier work to allies/outside groups, but this race probably looks very different tonally by election day.

[wbrocks67]

I've stayed quiet about this race as I'm heavily involved in it personally and professionally - my partner and I are personal friends with Angela Alsobrooks and I've polled it at multiple different points this cycle for multiple different clients - but I do think the media/online perception of this primary is drastically different from the way it's actually playing out.

A lot of this is because of the behind-the-scenes stuff going on - there's a ton of interpersonal politics and rivalries at play here, and things being taken into consideration by national party folks that don't usually factor into races like this, and for this reason it's probably going to get very ugly very quickly in these final weeks.

Alsobrooks is a real knife-fighter, her 2018 PG County executive campaign against Donna Edwards was vicious and very effective. She may not be able to get as aggressive in a higher-profile, statewide race and may need to outsource a lot of the dirtier work to allies/outside groups, but this race probably looks very different tonally by election day.

Are you allowed to say whether there's been a shift in the polling on the race over the duration of the campaign?

[Pollster]

I've stayed quiet about this race as I'm heavily involved in it personally and professionally - my partner and I are personal friends with Angela Alsobrooks and I've polled it at multiple different points this cycle for multiple different clients - but I do think the media/online perception of this primary is drastically different from the way it's actually playing out.

A lot of this is because of the behind-the-scenes stuff going on - there's a ton of interpersonal politics and rivalries at play here, and things being taken into consideration by national party folks that don't usually factor into races like this, and for this reason it's probably going to get very ugly very quickly in these final weeks.

Alsobrooks is a real knife-fighter, her 2018 PG County executive campaign against Donna Edwards was vicious and very effective. She may not be able to get as aggressive in a higher-profile, statewide race and may need to outsource a lot of the dirtier work to allies/outside groups, but this race probably looks very different tonally by election day.

Are you allowed to say whether there's been a shift in the polling on the race over the duration of the campaign?

I am definitely allowed to say something that broad and general, yes.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Barbara Mikulski endorsed Alsobrooks and appeared at a rally for her last night.

It's really gonna suck if she still ends up losing after all this. It'll just further validate the reality that money can still very much buy political office in America.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Barbara Mikulski endorsed Alsobrooks and appeared at a rally for her last night.

It's really gonna suck if she still ends up losing after all this. It'll just further validate the reality that money can still very much buy political office in America.

Or that Trone is indeed a much stronger candidate

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Barbara Mikulski endorsed Alsobrooks and appeared at a rally for her last night.

It's really gonna suck if she still ends up losing after all this. It'll just further validate the reality that money can still very much buy political office in America.

Or that Trone is indeed a much stronger candidate

He's impressed me quite a bit with how good a retail politician he is in this race. I'm fairly neutral on this race, maybe lean Alsobrooks, but I think she underestimated how much of a lead Trone was going to build early.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hogan isn't gonna beat her by 18 pts anyways

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Barbara Mikulski endorsed Alsobrooks and appeared at a rally for her last night.

It's really gonna suck if she still ends up losing after all this. It'll just further validate the reality that money can still very much buy political office in America.

Or that Trone is indeed a much stronger candidate

Besides his money, what makes him a much stronger candidate?

[SnowLabrador]

Trone is a stronger candidate because he doesn't publicly support Israel as much as Alsobrooks. Gaza is the number one issue of this election, at least for the youth vote.

[Oppo]

Barbara Mikulski endorsed Alsobrooks and appeared at a rally for her last night.

It's really gonna suck if she still ends up losing after all this. It'll just further validate the reality that money can still very much buy political office in America.

Mikulski has unfortunately also endorsed convicted embezzler Sheila Dixon (backed by Sinclair Broadcasting) for mayor of Baltimore and Sarah Elfreth (back by pro-MAGA, pro-Netanyahu AIPAC) for MD-03.

[Roll Roons]

If Hogan wasn’t running, how would that have changed the dynamic of the primary?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are gonna see on 5/14th whom is gonna win primary, but no one has seen that much of Alsobrooks, she is a fierce competition and Hogan is no more than 6 pts ahead of Alsobrooks and tied with Trone like D internal had it not 18

[SnowLabrador]

If Hogan wasn’t running, how would that have changed the dynamic of the primary?

Alsobrooks would be doing better since electability wouldn’t be an issue. As it is, Hogan has a good chance - Bullock and Bredesen never led by this much or had a majority in polling.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hogan has been hit with any negatives yet but if Trone is the Nominee he will be hit with high negatives that's why Hogan is leading but he isn't winning by 18 pts. D internal shows Hogan leading by 7 over Alsobrooks and Tied WITH Trone

[Horus]

Trone is a stronger candidate because he doesn't publicly support Israel as much as Alsobrooks. Gaza is the number one issue of this election, at least for the youth vote.

They seem exactly the same on Israel to me. Honestly they seem pretty much the same on everything. I'm really not sure who to support here. I don't like people buying seats but the Alsobrooks campaign has been anemic.

[Not Me, Us]

Trone is a stronger candidate because he doesn't publicly support Israel as much as Alsobrooks. Gaza is the number one issue of this election, at least for the youth vote.

They seem exactly the same on Israel to me. Honestly they seem pretty much the same on everything. I'm really not sure who to support here. I don't like people buying seats but the Alsobrooks campaign has been anemic.

We have way more than enough geriatric millionaires in the Senate already, I support Alsobrooks for that reason alone.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Trone is a stronger candidate because he doesn't publicly support Israel as much as Alsobrooks. Gaza is the number one issue of this election, at least for the youth vote.

They seem exactly the same on Israel to me. Honestly they seem pretty much the same on everything. I'm really not sure who to support here. I don't like people buying seats but the Alsobrooks campaign has been anemic.

Yeah, there is no real daylight between the two of them on the Middle East. The only reason Alsobrooks is being vocal on the issue is because she's assumed to be the "progressive choice" as a younger Black woman and she doesn't want to be.

Also, the idea that this race will be decided by the Gaza-focused youth vote is lol. The people for whom Gaza is their #1 issue don't vote.

[Bismarck]

Is there a reason the dem establishment is backing Alsobrooks besides “muh white man bad”?

[Roll Roons]

Is there a reason the dem establishment is backing Alsobrooks besides “muh white man bad”?

I think a lot of it is the sense that Trone is a bored rich guy who effectively bought himself a congressional seat and is now trying to buy a promotion to the Senate in the same way. There is a grain of truth to that, especially considering that he first ran for MD-08 in 2016, lost that primary and then ran in MD-06 when it came open in the next cycle.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Is there a reason the dem establishment is backing Alsobrooks besides “muh white man bad”?

She's a known quantity in Maryland's biggest political machine, while Trone is a self-funding outsider who will only answer to himself once he's in office. It totally makes sense from the state party's perspective.

[2016]

Alsobrooks is TOAST
MD started Early In-Person Voting yesterday and her Home County has lower Turnout compared to 2022 when Wes Moore pulled out a narrow victory in the Dem Governor Primary.

https://twitter.com/MichaelPruser/status/1786378698263769267