2022 ROC local elections Nov 2022

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Various decisions made by the ROC election commission on voting this year

1) Those with COVID-19 cannot vote
2) COVID-19 restrictions on PRC-ROC transit continue to be in place despite the fact that PRC is supportive of opening up completely and COVID-19 has pretty much burned through ROC in the summer making such restrictions really unnecessary from ROC's point of view.  This is relevant because 1.5 million ROC voters (voting with their feet) work and live in Mainland China and almost all of them will not be able to come back to vote (although historically they usually show up for Prez elections and not midterms)
3) No exceptions on 300K eligible voters that reside aboard on residency requirements to vote.  Namely, such voters must have lived on ROC for 4 months over a 2 year period which is pretty much impossible due to COVID-19 since 2020.  Since Mainland China is part of the ROC as per the ROC Constitution the rules are different for them.  Many voters living abroad returned to vote only to discover they cannot until 4 months later when the election is already over.
4) Military personnel cannot vote as opposed to previous elections
5) Government-funded extra bus and transit services to transport people from where they work to their home county are not available this year.

The ROC Election Commission claims this is all based on guidance from the Department of Health due to COVID-19.  It is clear what is really going on is the DPP does not want pro-PRC voters to vote (number 2) from above) and is concerned that their support with youth voters is soft (numbers 4) and 5).)

I wonder where Stacey Abrams and the Georgia Democrats are?  They should be here yelling about voter impression and insisting on a boycott of ROC.

Has this caused any kind of media firestorm in Taiwan at all?

[jaichind]

Various decisions made by the ROC election commission on voting this year

1) Those with COVID-19 cannot vote
2) COVID-19 restrictions on PRC-ROC transit continue to be in place despite the fact that PRC is supportive of opening up completely and COVID-19 has pretty much burned through ROC in the summer making such restrictions really unnecessary from ROC's point of view.  This is relevant because 1.5 million ROC voters (voting with their feet) work and live in Mainland China and almost all of them will not be able to come back to vote (although historically they usually show up for Prez elections and not midterms)
3) No exceptions on 300K eligible voters that reside aboard on residency requirements to vote.  Namely, such voters must have lived on ROC for 4 months over a 2 year period which is pretty much impossible due to COVID-19 since 2020.  Since Mainland China is part of the ROC as per the ROC Constitution the rules are different for them.  Many voters living abroad returned to vote only to discover they cannot until 4 months later when the election is already over.
4) Military personnel cannot vote as opposed to previous elections
5) Government-funded extra bus and transit services to transport people from where they work to their home county are not available this year.

The ROC Election Commission claims this is all based on guidance from the Department of Health due to COVID-19.  It is clear what is really going on is the DPP does not want pro-PRC voters to vote (number 2) from above) and is concerned that their support with youth voters is soft (numbers 4) and 5).)

I wonder where Stacey Abrams and the Georgia Democrats are?  They should be here yelling about voter impression and insisting on a boycott of ROC.

Has this caused any kind of media firestorm in Taiwan at all?

Only with Pan-Blue circles.  Turnout and interest are low this year so for the marginal vote, this entire thing is a technicality.   I do think this will reinforce the loss of the youth mega-tide for DPP from 2020.

Note for a) there are workarounds.  Yesterday was the first day that if you report you have COVID-19 you cannot vote.  Result: the number of people reporting getting COVID-19 halved from the day before.  So now people are just not going to report their COVID-19 status so they can vote

Oh.  I forgot

g) There seems to be a bunch of reports across ROC that many voting stations have moved to the 2nd or 3rd floors of schools.  The claim is that this makes it harder for pro-KMT older voters to vote.  To be fair many of these stories are anecdotal and no one has done a systemic analysis of how many we are talking about and also count the situation where it is the other way around (voting stations moved from 2nd and 3rd floors of schools to 1st floor.)

[jaichind]

I think I shared this story a while ago but will share it again now that it seems almost certain that KMT Chiang will be elected mayor of 臺北市(Taipei City).

My cousin actually attended elementary school with Chiang.  They were in the same class for 2-3 years.  During that time (the mid-1980s to late 1980s) she told me that Chiang was a known brat in the school, was not that great academically but was definitely alpha.   She said Chiang and his "gang" were behind a lot of pranks in the school.  She said one time they went too far and by accident blew out a tire of a car parked right next to the school.  Everyone in the class knew it was Chiang and his gang that was behind it but all covered it up for him so in theory the perpetrator of that act was never "caught."

Frankly, this sounds a lot like my childhood in elementary school on ROC six years earlier from my cousin and Chiang.  During 2nd and 3rd grade I was the main school bully in my class and was behind a lot of bad stuff.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

4) Military personnel cannot vote as opposed to previous elections

Just like in 2004 with Chen Shui-bian.

Do you think the KMT is still going to win?

[jaichind]

4) Military personnel cannot vote as opposed to previous elections

Just like in 2004 with Chen Shui-bian.

Do you think the KMT is still going to win?

The military vote is not the same advantage for the KMT as it was in 2004 given the shift of the youth vote toward the DPP since 2008.

KMT will win for technical reasons.  This election is a no wave low turnout election which is good for incumbents.  Due to the 2018 KMT wave, the KMT has a lot of incumbents that can benefit from this.  Also, most of the open seats are in Blue areas which also helps the KMT.

If the KMT wins in 2024 Prez (which at this stage I figure is a 40% shot) I will be very fearful for the KMT in 2026 since all these KMT advantages will go into reverse.

[jaichind]

3 days away from election day and no signs of a DPP October surprise anywhere.  If anything the scale of DPP media attacks on KMT and TPP seems to be waning.  Unless this changes in the next day or so it does seem the DPP has shot its bolt and now will be facing defeat this Saturday with the only question of the scale of the defeat.  Looking back the turning point was the Nancy Pelosi visit back in August.  That visit was supposed to help galvanize the DPP campaign but the aftermath seems to have the situation turned further against the DPP, especially in the North.

[jaichind]

Former DPP VP 陳建仁(Chen Chien-Jen), who is Catholic, while campaigning for the DPP in  Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4) said that God told him that everyone in  Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4) should vote for DPP.  This got a clear blowback from the ROC Catholic hierarchy.   陳建仁(Chen Chien-Jen) is DPP Prez Tsai's top candidate to stop her rival current DPP VP Lai in the DPP nomination process next year.  Clearly for that to work DPP has to hold  Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4).  One can see why Chen is getting desperate ergo he started to talk about God backing DPP.

[jaichind]

Voting in progress.  Final projection by me.  Lower turnout pushes up DPP vote share a bit.

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4) (KMT flip from TPP)
KMT         43% (Grandson and Great Grandson of Chiang the Younger and Chiang the Elder)
DPP         31%
pro-TPP    23%   


New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +1)
KMT         60%  (incumbent) (KMT superstar, possible future KMT Prez or VP candidate)
DPP          40%  (former incumbent of Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +1))


Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4) (KMT flip from DPP)
KMT         47%
DPP         40%
DPP rebel   7%
TPP           6%


Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +1)
KMT         60% (incumbent) (KMT superstar, possible future KMT VP candidate)
DPP          39.5%


Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP          60% (incumbent) (in theory future DPP star, sister is pro-PRC which holds him back)
KMT          33%
Pan-Blue     5.5%
TSU rebel    1%


Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +6)
DPP         61% (incumbent)
KMT         38%
 
 
Keelung City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +7) (KMT flip from DPP)
KMT           48%
DPP            45.5%
NPP              4%
KMT rebel     2%


Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)
KMT           49% (incumbent) (hit by a scandal which she claims is trumped up by DPP)
DPP            44%
TPP              6%


Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +12)
KMT           63% (incumbent)
DPP            36%


Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3) (TPP flip from DPP !!!)
TPP             41%
DPP             36%
KMT            22%

 
Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11) (KMT rebel flip from KMT !!!)
KMT rebel     40%
DPP              34%
KMT             18%
NPP               7%


Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Even)
KMT             55.5% (incumbent)
DPP              44%


Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +5)
KMT             61%
DPP              38.5%


Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +6)
KMT              55% (incumbent)
DPP              44%
 

Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +8)
DPP              61% (incumbent)
KMT              39%
 

Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +4)  (election delayed due to death of a minor candidate)
KMT             53% (incumbent)
DPP             45%
 

Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +6)
DPP             51%
KMT             43%
NPP               6%


Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)
KMT            64%  (incumbent)
DPP             35%
 

Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)
KMT            61%  (incumbent)
DPP             38%  (tribal background means a bigger DPP wipeout is avoided)


Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4) (chaotic 3-way battle)
KMT             39%  (incumbent)
DPP              37%  (former incumbent)
KMT rebel     24%
 

Overall Pan-Blue (KMT TPP KMT rebels) vs Pan Green (DPP NPP DPP rebels) comes to 54.26% vs 45.24% which most likely overestimates Pan-Blues a bit since some TPP voters are light Green.

[jaichind]

Voting over.  Count in progress.  So far the early count pretty much matches CW.  The only real exception so far is DPP Chen is in 3rd place in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4) (KMT flip from TPP) as opposed to second but again the count is early.

[jaichind]

So far in Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3), KMT is in a distant third.  It seems TPP has this.

[jaichind]

In Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11) it seems to be a KMT rebel landslide as the KMT candidate is way back in a distant third place. KMT rebel has this.

[jaichind]

In Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4) it seems so far it is

KMT Chiang 38
Pro-TPP       31
DPP Chen    30

[jaichind]

So far the candidate I picked to win is ahead everywhere.  Only exception is Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4) where DPP ex-incumbent is slightly ahead of KMT incumbent with very little in

[jaichind]

Large KMT lead in swing Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4) where KMT is ahead of DPP 57-39

[jaichind]

Incumbent safe reelection cities

DPP leads in Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +6) and Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) slightly less than expected.  KMT heads in New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +1) and Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +1) around what is expected.

[jaichind]

In the open seat of Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +5), DPP is going to lose but so far doing better than expected.   On the flip side, the KMT is doing slightly better than expected in the open seat of Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +6) even it is clear DPP will win.

[jaichind]

In Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Even) and Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +6) the KMT incumbents are blowing out the DPP

[jaichind]

The heavy urban areas are not in yet but so far it looks like a KMT wave.

[jaichind]

In Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4) it is

KMT Chiang              41
DPP Chen                 30
pro-TPP Huang          29

[jaichind]

So far KMT has a significant lead in battleground open seat in Keelung City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +7)

[jaichind]

In Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) KMT is only behind DPP incumbent by 4% !!! so far  This was supposed to be a 20-point lead DPP blowout.

[jaichind]

It s now neck-to-neck in the open seat of Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +6) !!!

[jaichind]

More votes come in for  Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4).  KMT lead down to 14%.  Still a massive lead in the circumstances.

[jaichind]

In Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6) the KMT incumbent who is on trial for corruption which the KMT claims is trumped up is ahead by 10

[jaichind]

Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3)

TPP     47
DPP     35
KMT    19

Massive KMT tactical voting for TPP to defeat DPP