🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

So, this is a picture I link from the Instagram account of the tax-funded state news! This oughta be allowed! 🤬

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Do either of the polls have a breakdown of the others? 7-9% is quite high.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

RIP in peace, Armin Laschet

https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1376269886465449986

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

If the FDP would not go into coalition with CDU+Greens 4 years ago, why would they go into coalition with SDP+Greens now?

Maybe if SDP+Greens+Linke get more than 50% of seats combined, the FDP may want to shoehorn the Linke out, but in that event  wouldn't FDP start losing votes to CDU or AfD?

FDP leaving the government formation process in 2017 put party survival ahead of government stability, why would it be different in 2021?

I suppose the logic is that you can't dodge responsibility forever.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

INSA has kindly provided a poll of Thuringia (changes from last election):
AfD 22 (-1)
SPD 21 (+8)
SED 18 (+1)
CDU 18 (-11)
FDP 9 (+1)
Green 5 (+1)

Feels like the East is ready to swing BIGLY now Merkel is gone.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

EDIT: Upon further consideration, I am pretty certain that the objective of this paper is to convince some FDP voters to vote CDU. Schulze, Künast, Hofreiter in crucial positions is not something that FDP-voters would want.

It also has FDP running Finance, Economy and Education - if it's a false flag it sounds like one also designed to bail out Linke and make a scaremongering campaign based around that more plausible.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

And now we have an Infratest poll out of Brandenburg (changes from last election):

SPD 29 (+11)
AfD 18 (-2)
CDU 15 (-12)
SED 11 (-6)
FDP 9 (+2)
Green 9 (+4)
Others 9 (+3)

LOL

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The big Linke drop possibly implies some of their usual SED pensioner vote is flirting with Scholz. Not surprised, tbh.

Question for Germans:

Is Scholz more popular in the East than West?

So far, I have only seen polls from Eastern states which had double digit gains for the SPD - but only single digit increases in the West.

Not German, but I believe Merkel had something of a personal vote.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

GMS poll of Bavaria (changes from last election):

CSU 29 (-10)
Green 18 (+8)
SPD 15 (=)
FDP 13 (+3)
AfD 10 (-2)
FW 6 (+3)
SED 3 (-3)
Others 6 (+1)

I mean, what can you even say?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Actually, there is one thing to say: no change for the SPD from 2017 is a bit surprising but I suppose it makes sense for the swing, if it's happening, to be most pronounced in the north and east and least pronounced in the south.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Actually, there is one thing to say: no change for the SPD from 2017 is a bit surprising but I suppose it makes sense for the swing, if it's happening, to be most pronounced in the north and east and least pronounced in the south.

Infratest dimap has also polled Bavaria and come up with:
CSU 28 (-11)
SPD 18 (+3)
Green 16 (+6)
FDP 12 (+2)
AfD 10 (-2)
FW 7 (+4)
SED 3 (-3)
Others 6 (+1)

Some movement from 2017 for the SPD but not as much as the federal polls imply, which makes sense considering the likely large Eastern swings. A poll of BaWü would be pretty nice right now.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I presume Merkel still has some coattails in her seat.

I actually wouldn't be surprised if she didn't, the CDU vote in MeVo seems to be collapsing without her. An Infratest poll of the state came out today:

SPD 31 (+16)
AfD 18 (-1)
CDU 16 (-17)
SED 11 (-7)
FDP 9 (+3)
Green 8 (+4)
Others 7 (+2)

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

It would be better to call parties by their proper name...

What are you referring to?

The post above mine, where the poster is showing a habit, he or she seems all the time, that shows him or her living more than 30 years in the past.

Now that someone has compared the LINKE to the SED, it is time for everyone's standard reminder that the CDU existed in the DDR, supported the SED government and was part of the non-democratic parliament, only became democratic in 1990, and was absorbed into the CDU of Germany - with all its former socialist personell and all it's party infrastructure.

Linkie get's sh**t because it has elected stasi members and has numerous members who countinue to defend the human rights record of GDR, the rest of the parties don't.

Every party has had their Stasi-informants, and the CDU also has nominated people very recently who had vigorously defended DDR-socialism when they lived there. People who try to pin the legacy of the DDR solely on the LINKE just because it is the legal successor of the SED generally don't argue in good faith, have no real understanding of the historical life situations of Eastern Germans, or both. And I say that as a non-LINKE-voter.

And as someone who does vote for the legal successor to my own Eastern Bloc country's communist party and who has some personal ties to that social milieu, I like to occasionally poke fun in my own way at the political tradition I effectively support

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Don't think we noted the latest Trend poll of Hamburg, btw:

SPD 34 (+10 from 2017 / +6 from last poll)
Green 17 (+3 / -2)
CDU 15 (-12 / -2)
FDP 13 (+2 / -1)
SED 10 (-2 / +1)
AfD 7 (-1 / =)
Others 5 (= / -1)

Scholzistan. I wonder if the SPD can keep squeezing the other parties enough to start flirting with 2005 levels in the city.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The Linke result is interesting, in that you have to wonder how much of it is Eastern pensioners voting for Scholz because he comes off as more post-communist than the actual post-communists, and how much of it is those pensioners, er, not voting for anyone. They have to be hoping that it's primarily the former, otherwise they have to start making up ground in the west real fast.

Anyway, pleased to see the best SPD result in over a decade!

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The Linke result is interesting, in that you have to wonder how much of it is Eastern pensioners voting for Scholz because he comes off as more post-communist than the actual post-communists, and how much of it is those pensioners, er, not voting for anyone. They have to be hoping that it's primarily the former, otherwise they have to start making up ground in the west real fast.

I'd also add that this is the first election they've run in where both the SPD and the Greens had strong wind in their sails. Even if, say, Scholz is a popular Chancellor and gives the SPD a boost going into the next election, that probably won't happen again.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

https://twitter.com/amsterdamalie/status/1443094573597831171

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

A majority of Union supporters and even 47% of AFD voters want Scholz as Chancellor:

https://twitter.com/marceldirsus/status/1448921163317628939

Seems to me that the German electorate are crying out as one 'he won, now get on with it'.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

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Is there a pattern to the FDP vote I'm missing, or does it look a bit off because the party doesn't really have deep roots in Saxony and therefore it is a bit off?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

He has almost become a cult-like figure, lmao.

that doesn't sound like a good thing

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

From start to finish, totally unserious way to run an election. It seems obviously ridiculous and unfair to me that an already elected MP can just randomly lose their seat. But hey, Procedure was followed, I guess.