2020 Poll Hype Thread (user search)
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  2020 Poll Hype Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Poll Hype Thread  (Read 191703 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 9,773
« on: May 19, 2020, 03:28:20 AM »

Their Twitter account claims they have finished the survey but have also delayed its release by up to a week while they are vetted by 538.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #1 on: May 29, 2020, 06:44:09 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on May 19, 2020, 11:14:15 AM
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on May 19, 2020, 03:28:20 AM

Their Twitter account claims they have finished the survey but have also delayed its release by up to a week while they are vetted by 538.

Actually, that's good. There keeps being rumors about them being fake, so I'd like to see 538 weigh in once and for all.

There should also be a Civiqs/DailyKos poll of Georgia out today

There's been no word from 538 but they continue to insist they're being vetted, though they've given no updated timescale and it's been well over a week:

https://twitter.com/OurProgressHQ/status/1266046600478167041

More likely than not to be a fraud at this point, I suspect.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #2 on: May 29, 2020, 07:08:29 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on May 29, 2020, 06:48:08 AM
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on May 29, 2020, 06:44:09 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on May 19, 2020, 11:14:15 AM
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on May 19, 2020, 03:28:20 AM

Their Twitter account claims they have finished the survey but have also delayed its release by up to a week while they are vetted by 538.

Actually, that's good. There keeps being rumors about them being fake, so I'd like to see 538 weigh in once and for all.

There should also be a Civiqs/DailyKos poll of Georgia out today

There's been no word from 538 but they continue to insist they're being vetted, though they've given no updated timescale and it's been well over a week:

https://twitter.com/OurProgressHQ/status/1266046600478167041

More likely than not to be a fraud at this point, I suspect.

It's weird, b/c they're releasing a ton of data, like the VP maps and stuff. It just seems like a lot of work to make all that sh**t up, ya know? But it's weird that 538 or anyone else hasn't commented on if their legit or not.

I agree. It's possible they fiddled some numbers in their early stages and regret it (they list some of their earlier surveys as "non-scientific"), but it might also be an elaborate PredictIt scam (they wouldn't be the first to try this) or a group that manufactures data for political ends (Warren lobbying, perhaps?). @baseballot (Nathaniel Rakich) wrote a tweet seeming to imply that their data might have been fake, but never explicitly called them out on it.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2020, 08:57:02 AM »
I mentioned this in another thread, but it belongs here:


As for their own polling:


If they were just hucksters, I doubt they'd be commissioning polls from other sources, too.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #4 on: July 12, 2020, 08:25:48 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 12, 2020, 08:14:19 AM
Polling this cycle is very lackluster. CBS/YouGov haven't done a poll in months, or a Battleground tracker. And even monthly outlets like NBC/WSJ, ABC/Wapo feel like they're now going longer than a month in between polls.

I feel like in 2016, by this point we were waking up on Sundays to tons of new polls.

I suspect the industry took a bit of a hit because of the 2016 results, but AFAIK it is also in a state of general decline because it's getting costlier for pollsters to reach a reasonably representative group of people by phone, especially landline.

@Pollster what do you think of the apparent decline in the volume of polls?
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #5 on: August 29, 2020, 03:59:06 PM »
Quote from: Lognog on August 29, 2020, 03:55:52 PM
Quote from: Ferguson97 on August 28, 2020, 07:58:15 PM

This is wild

can someone please explain what the hell happened here

Two ET guys created a fake Gravis poll as a meme, then pretended it was real and sent it to a local MA journalist, who published it. When they caught heat for the inconsistencies, the pranksters came out saying it was a social experiment, then apologised as people started haranguing them for it. Some went so far as to suggest they were trying to fix betting markets and threaten lawsuits (lol) so they deactivated their accounts.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #6 on: September 02, 2020, 04:56:38 PM »
If UNH's previous releases are anything to go by, we should get presidential and congressional numbers tomorrow for NH.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #7 on: September 07, 2020, 10:12:33 PM »
A WI-Marquette poll will be released in two days.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #8 on: September 08, 2020, 03:39:41 PM »
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #9 on: September 10, 2020, 06:23:15 PM »
« Edited: September 10, 2020, 08:43:00 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
OK-05 poll dropping tonight (from OKSooner).
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2020, 11:03:02 AM »
Quote from: redjohn on September 16, 2020, 10:51:17 AM
Really interested in the ME polls for POTUS and Senate. Hoping Gideon leads by high-single digits and Biden has a strong lead there.

IMO whether she is above 45%/50% matters much more than her lead at this point given that the Fabrizio poll suggested undecided voters were leaning heavily towards Collins.

I'd also like to see more pollsters grapple with RCV and publish 1st ballot/2nd ballot toplines.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2020, 09:26:40 PM »
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #12 on: September 22, 2020, 12:18:15 PM »
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #13 on: September 23, 2020, 04:24:50 PM »
They're not going to be as good as Selzer, but I think it's still a welcome addition:
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #14 on: September 30, 2020, 10:00:36 PM »
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2020, 09:50:01 PM »
The pro-RCV outfit in AK polled the presidential race as Biden and Trump supporters (but not "third party/undecided voters") are crosstabs for their referendum poll. Hopefully they release the topline soon, but I doubt they will if they feel the numbers would be significantly bad news for either candidate given their efforts to maintain a nonpartisan appearance.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #16 on: October 10, 2020, 06:56:06 PM »
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #17 on: October 12, 2020, 04:52:29 PM »
The rest of the NC SUSA numbers are apparently arriving within the next 2 days.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2020, 09:34:31 AM »
http://politicaliq.com/2020/10/20/co-biden-51-trump-43/

COSEN poll coming from RMG Research/PoliticalIQ later.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2020, 01:55:49 PM »
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2020, 02:46:59 PM »
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #21 on: October 20, 2020, 06:45:10 PM »
AZSEN polling coming from RMG Research/PoliticalIQ soon: http://politicaliq.com/2020/10/20/az-biden-47-trump-46/
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #22 on: October 21, 2020, 11:09:20 AM »
They'll have Trump up in Texas and Biden up in Pennsylvania again, although by slightly smaller margins in both cases.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #23 on: October 21, 2020, 11:01:43 PM »


Small sample sizes inbound!
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773
« Reply #24 on: October 22, 2020, 05:50:17 PM »
RMG/PoliticalIQ poll of IASEN coming tomorrow: http://politicaliq.com/2020/10/22/ia-toss-up-trump-47-biden-47/
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