NC 2016 Gubernatorial Discussion Thread

[Miles]

If then-State Treasurer Richard Moore (D) had been the Dems nominee for NC Governor in 2008 and not Perdue, would he have done better ?

No; I think he'd have lost in 2008. He wouldn't have got the votes out east to offset McCrory's Charlotte strength.

[Miles]

Well, you know you're failing when you run on your private sector background but a majority of the business community still gives you bad grades:

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[TX Conservative Dem]

What about the other down ballot statewide offices in 2016 ?

Do you see the NC Dems running the table or do you see status quo like we've seen in 2012?

[Sol]

What about the other down ballot statewide offices in 2016 ?

Do you see the NC Dems running the table or do you see status quo like we've seen in 2012?

The trouble with the NC dems is that they're very poorly organized- they aren't able to capitalize on the GA's awfulness very well because of that. It thus depends entirely on the candidates.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Would Hilary Clinton on the 2016 ballot help or hurt the NC Dems in down ballot statewide elections?

[Miles]

Would Hilary Clinton on the 2016 ballot help or hurt the NC Dems in down ballot statewide elections?

Probably help. Its hard to assess how well Obama's coalition in the urban areas will hold up, but she'll help in the rural areas.

[TX Conservative Dem]

It'll also depend on who Hilary picks as VP for the Dems.

[Miles]

Melissa Harris-Perry rips McCrory on his handling of NC-12.

[Miles]

Buried down in their Senate poll release, Rasmussen has McCrory at a pretty even 46/47 approval split.

[TX Conservative Dem]

McCrory inching back up in approval ratings.

[Miles]

PPP has polled a quintet of Assembly House seats. Republicans there are generally tied or trailing hypothetical Democrats. Here's how McCrory's margin's there have held up:

SD8 (Wilson and Pitt counties)
McCrory 2012- 56/43
Mccrory 2014- 38/50

HD9 (eastern Pitt County)
12- 58/40
14- 38/48

HD36 (Wake County- southern Cary)
12- 59/38
14- 39/52

HD45 (Cumberland County)
12- 57/41
14- 38/45

HD118 (Haywood, Madison, Yancey Counties)
12- 58/40
14- 28/59

[TX Conservative Dem]

Only way McCrory loses reelection is if he gets caught in a sex scandal.

[Miles]

Only way McCrory loses reelection is if he gets caught in a sex scandal.

You're getting very close to my ignore list.

[Morning in Atlas]

Only way McCrory loses reelection is if he gets caught in a sex scandal.

You're getting very close to my ignore list.

I've had him on my ignore list ever since he started spewing his nonsense about Corbett.

[TX Conservative Dem]

It was a joke

[Miles]

Roy Cooper is out with a new video doubling down on his criticisms of the current regime. I think the new age-ish music in the background is a bit tacky and subtracts from the overall message, but I'm glad he's taking these steps.

[TX Conservative Dem]

When do you expect Cooper to announce?

[Miles]

High Point University polled the approvals of these guys:

Obama- 40/54
McCrory- 37/40
Hagan- 33/43
Burr- 29/29
NCGA- 32/51
Congress- 12/80

It doesn't bug me that Hagan has only 33% favorables, as Burr is very low too; she just needs to get her negatives down. Those ads have played a big part in that.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Burr will be in the Senate as long as he wants to be.

[Morning in Atlas]

It was a joke

It's better to stand by your unpopular opinions here. McCrory recovering isn't out of the question, and Corbett winning is still possible - after all, Democrats are likely to run a candidate whose main issue is being pro-choice. If you have the right reasoning, you'll be fine here.

Burr could go down in a wave year - the state as a whole is trending D, and he's not known well. If something big happens in 2016, even to cause a statewide wave, Burr will be washed out with the tide. If not, then he's done.

[Miles]

This poll is from Civitas, so make of it what you will. Obama has a 45/52 approval in NC while McCrory is at 48/42.

[Miles]

Roy Cooper will be appealing the ruling that struck down NC's ultrasound law, despite McCrory's opposition.

[Miles]

McCrory and Assembly Republicans are making a big education announcement tomorrow. I was expecting, ya know, more cuts and privatization, but this would be good:

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[Miles]

PPP has McCrory at 39/44 but he won't be a pushover. He leads Cooper 43-41. Cooper's favorables are 27/18.

[Miles]

In minor news, there was this little incident over the weekend.

McCrory was shopping at a gourmet grocery in Charlotte, which is actually next to my high school. A chef started to ask him if he needed help; when he realized it was McCrory, the chef said "Thanks for nothing" and walked away. McCrory started yelling at him and they go into something of a shouting match. The chef was subsequently fired.

I sympathize with the guy, but definitely not the route I would have gone. I would probably have helped him while making sarcastic comments or something.