Ontario Election 2022

[mileslunn]

Mine are:

PC - 80 (42%)
NDP - 26 (22%)
OLP - 17 (27%)
Greens - 1 (5%)
Others - 0 - 3%

[Hatman 🍁]

Here is our seat by seat forecast: https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2022/06/ekos-seat-projection-3/

Of course, I don't actually think the NDP will get 30 seats, it's just difficult to decide which one's they won't win. Certainly Oshawa is on the top of the list for me though (I had some help from Joseph Angolano on this forecast, and he thought it would go NDP). I also wanted to call Spadina-Fort York for the Liberals.

[King of Kensington]

Seat prediction:

PCs  82 seats
NDP  27 seats
Liberals  14 seats
Greens  1 seat

[King of Kensington]

I also wanted to call Spadina-Fort York for the Liberals.

That would be the first break in the pattern of the downtown TO seats voting the same way.  Spadina-Fort York seems to have the weakest NDP base of the three.  I have it in the NDP column.

[toaster]

My prediction:
PC: 78
NDP: 29
LIB: 15
Green: 2

[Hatman 🍁]

I also wanted to call Spadina-Fort York for the Liberals.

That would be the first break in the pattern of the downtown TO seats voting the same way.  Spadina-Fort York seems to have the weakest NDP base of the three.  I have it in the NDP column.

Maybe, though the Liberals are stronger in Toronto Centre. Kind of remarkable that the NDP does just as well there as the other two ridings though. I think it might be their best riding of the three due to KWT this time.

In hindsight, it was silly of me to think University-Rosedale and Spadina-Fort York would vote differently. Not even Kevin Vuong himself could make that happen.

[King of Kensington]

Yes, Toronto Centre lacks Rosedale and has fewer high income ondo-dwellers and more social housing and low income immigrants.  It's the least Conservative of the three.

Spadina-Fort York and University-Rosedale came in at basically an identical result last time, but Uni-Rose more bifurcated.  It has a stronger NDP base, but also has the Avenue Rd. "wall" east of which is really weak for the NDP. 

[DL]

Forum’s seat projection model is totally nuts they say the Liberals will win just 6 seats!

[Oryxslayer]

Forum’s seat projection model is totally nuts they say the Liberals will win just 6 seats!

This is the extreme end of what I am  alluding to when I say that 2018 is a bad benchmark to judge Liberal outcomes.

[mileslunn]

Forum’s seat projection model is totally nuts they say the Liberals will win just 6 seats!

Agreed silly, but Liberals could do really bad.  I think Liberals getting in low teens is a very real possibility.  Problem with Liberals in Ontario is support mile wide, inch deep so when ahead they do really well, but when behind, lack of strongholds unlike PCs and NDP means they fall much further.  PCs have a floor around 30 seats, NDP around 15 seats, while OLP floor is single digits.  By contrast PC ceiling is probably in low 80s, NDP 50s, while OLP around 100 seats.  Off course I am talking just in general not any specific election.  Also being to right of NDP but left of Tories means more potential of votes to pick up, but also can lose on both sides not just one like other two.  Yes you have New Blue and Ontario Party to PCs right, but they are so irrelevant at most shaves a few points off.

[Independents for Nihilism]

So what, if anything, changed in the last few days that put the PCs back in such solid majority territory? Was it just a matter of the opposition vote not breaking one way or the other?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

So what, if anything, changed in the last few days that put the PCs back in such solid majority territory? Was it just a matter of the opposition vote not breaking one way or the other?

Probably consolidation from a lot of undedicded voters who went with the default choice of picking the incumbent.

[jaichind]

It seems a surprise, to me, that the late minute polls seems to have broken in favor of PC.  My impression of Canada elections is that usually last minute breaks, if any, are in favor of an opposition party at the expense of the ruling party or at the expense of another opposition party.

[DistingFlyer]

It seems a surprise, to me, that the late minute polls seems to have broken in favor of PC.  My impression of Canada elections is that usually last minute breaks, if any, are in favor of an opposition party at the expense of the ruling party or at the expense of another opposition party.

They can be, but just as often it's the incumbent party that does better than expected (ON 2014, BC 2013, SK 2020, etc.) or the (non-incumbent) perceived frontrunner (ON 2018, AB 2019, etc.).

[jaichind]

It seems a surprise, to me, that the late minute polls seems to have broken in favor of PC.  My impression of Canada elections is that usually last minute breaks, if any, are in favor of an opposition party at the expense of the ruling party or at the expense of another opposition party.

They can be, but just as often it's the incumbent party that does better than expected (ON 2014, BC 2013, SK 2020, etc.) or the (non-incumbent) perceived frontrunner (ON 2018, AB 2019, etc.).

I guess it must be where there are cases where the is a last minute pro-opposition surge are more memorable

[Hatman 🍁]

Some of it is herding. Mainstreet has the Tories going from 35 to 39 in just one day? Yeah, right.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

So what, if anything, changed in the last few days that put the PCs back in such solid majority territory? Was it just a matter of the opposition vote not breaking one way or the other?

Like Hatman said, probably some herding going on at this point. But if the upswing in PC support is "real", it still makes sense. When there is an incumbent government that isn't terribly unpopular, undecided voters tend to break for them.

[jaichind]

Toward the end of the campaign I expected either the Libs or NDP to collapse to the benefit of the other.  I guess it did not happen much to the benefit of PC.

[brucejoel99]

So what, if anything, changed in the last few days that put the PCs back in such solid majority territory? Was it just a matter of the opposition vote not breaking one way or the other?

Like Hatman said, probably some herding going on at this point. But if the upswing in PC support is "real", it still makes sense. When there is an incumbent government that isn't terribly unpopular, undecided voters tend to break for them.

In all honesty, the RoI of the PC campaign is producing brilliant results precisely because they haven't really even had to campaign in the first place: a basic message of getting sh*t done & keeping their mouths shut about basically everything else is all that's been necessary for efficacy. The PCs are winning again because they simply abided by the Napoleonic tactic of never interrupting your enemies when they're making mistakes: namely, the OLP & ONDP cannibalizing each other.

Of course, what doesn't exactly serve to help &, indeed, rather hurts them is that they're both led by milquetoast political veterans who are incapable of running good, inspiring campaigns & who've long overstayed their welcomes in ON politics. Frankly, the OLP is a sad shell that doesn't even know who its voters are or have a feel for what actually matters. It still hasn't recovered from 2018 because it hasn't found its identity. Provincial voters have no reason to trust them again when they don't really stand for anything; see: most of their messaging in this election being - just as it was at the tail-end of 2018 - geared toward telling people 2 things: Ford sucks, but don't vote for the NDP. That reeks of desperation, just as it did at the tail-end of the last campaign. Their platform itself is actually interesting, but that doesn't matter much when seemingly all of their messaging is instead focused on just how much of a worse choice all of the others are. As for the ONDP, I've already expressed my issues about them. I'll just add that it's no wonder that the working-class is allying itself with the PCs over the party that was literally founded to stand up for the working-class when said party seemingly does nothing these days but pander to urban progressives. The ONDP putting a hard day's work into figuring out how to jive with the working-class again would go a long way toward potential successes in the future, but I digress about the present. And the Greens, despite having the best leader in the province by far & maybe even the best platform too, are sadly stuck at the bottom because people probably still see them as "radical." RIP. Still, fingers are crossed for Parry Sound-Muskoka.

This election could've been great. Now, it's just sad. ON doesn't deserve 4 more years of Ford's highways over climate action.

[Central Lake]

Will a election results thread be created

[adma]

So what, if anything, changed in the last few days that put the PCs back in such solid majority territory? Was it just a matter of the opposition vote not breaking one way or the other?

Like Hatman said, probably some herding going on at this point. But if the upswing in PC support is "real", it still makes sense. When there is an incumbent government that isn't terribly unpopular, undecided voters tend to break for them.

In all honesty, the RoI of the PC campaign is producing brilliant results precisely because they haven't really even had to campaign in the first place: a basic message of getting sh*t done & keeping their mouths shut about basically everything else is all that's been necessary for efficacy. The PCs are winning again because they simply abided by the Napoleonic tactic of never interrupting your enemies when they're making mistakes: namely, the OLP & ONDP cannibalizing each other.

Actually, a lot of this tableau could have been foretold from the start, going back to '18; because the "mistake" was built into the outcome of that particular election, and Ford and his team knew it.  With their majority, they *knew* they could gaslight Andrea Horwath and the NDP into uselessness as if they had 14 seats rather than 40.  And they *knew* that the OLP had undergone a thrashing even more decisive than their federal counterparts in '11--but they also knew that as far as progressivism goes, the Libs were still the "media party", they still had that apparent 2nd place "natural condition", and that there'd be a *lot* of push to try and turn '22 into a Lib-centric "correction" of '18.  And they *knew* it was destined to fail.

Essentially, it was Doug Ford as Uncle Fester gleefully presiding over an Addams Family model train wreck.

[DL]

As for the ONDP, I've already expressed my issues about them. I'll just add that it's no wonder that the working-class is allying itself with the PCs over the party that was literally founded to stand up for the working-class when said party seemingly does nothing these days but pander to urban progressives. The ONDP putting a hard day's work into figuring out how to jive with the working-class again would go a long way toward potential successes in the future, but I digress about the present.

Actual the self-styled "urban progressives" in Toronto all complain to no end about how the ONDP under Horwath is too populist and too busy trying to chase working class blue collar blue/orange swing voters. They have never been comfortable with Andrea Horwath because she is a bit too "common" and doesn't talk like a member of a think tank.

If you look at what the NDP has been pushing for this election, I'm not sure what exactly there is for a "working class person" to object to. What's wrong with pharmacare? What's wrong with free dental care? What's wrong with a $20/hour minimum wage? What about 10 sick days per year guaranteed? What about doubling ODSP payments to be above the poverty line? What about the NDP promise to roll back gasoline prices? What about promises to make it easier for people to unionize and to give gig workers more rights...just to name a few. If these measures are somehow all a turn off to so-called "working class voters" - then what do they want that the NDP is not offering? Are you suggesting that the NDP needs to chat ":make the rich pay" and "workers of the world unite" and mimic the Linke Party in Germany???

Personally, I have never been crazy about Horwath as a leader largely because I find she tends to sound like a bit of wind up toy and to be a bit trite and simplistic...but I think she actually "gets it" and has tried to target working class voters in the SW of Ontario much more than many intellectual party grandees would have liked. So I just don't think this is fair criticism of her or of the party.

That being said, I think she has had her turn as leader and its time for a new face.

[adma]

What happens in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek? 

Without setting anything in stone, I'll say this: it's a case where the NDP have the lowest-profile candidate of the "big three" + Miller, so they'd *really* require the raw legacy momentum of party machinery to put them over the top--and I tend to agree that the dynamics (both blue-collar and Stoney Creek ethnoburban) are rather Tory-favourable, and that the 3rd place federally last year should have sent the ONDP a message, whatever the "Horwathland" advantage.  (And another open NDP seat worth monitoring on such lowest-political-profile-candidate-of-the-three grounds is Windsor-Tecumseh.)

[DL]

What happens in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek? 

Without setting anything in stone, I'll say this: it's a case where the NDP have the lowest-profile candidate of the "big three" + Miller, so they'd *really* require the raw legacy momentum of party machinery to put them over the top--and I tend to agree that the dynamics (both blue-collar and Stoney Creek ethnoburban) are rather Tory-favourable, and that the 3rd place federally last year should have sent the ONDP a message, whatever the "Horwathland" advantage.  (And another open NDP seat worth monitoring on such lowest-political-profile-candidate-of-the-three grounds is Windsor-Tecumseh.)

In both Hamilton East-Stony Creek and Windsor-Tecumseh - the NDP is running young racialized candidates. Is it your view that anyone young and racialized is ipso-facto "low profile" and "weak". To be a strong candiadte, does one have to be a middle white guy who screams and yells a lot?

[adma]

Or Thunder Bay, no idea what's going on there.

In a weird way, I'd monitor the Tories there--there seems to be a *lot* of extra-elevated Lib presumptions through '18's result and your usual projection-site quackery; but a lot of that is the long tail of the Lyn McLeod era, and now that both seats are effectively "open" and clear of that direct lineage (and with some consideration of federal results), I'd think they're *very* tempting PC targets.  It's just that they don't get the same press because preexisting Liberal/near-Liberal allegiance doesn't trigger "Red Wall" hand-wringing the way that NDP allegiance does--but they're sleepers, let me tell you that.  (Of course, I could be wrong.  But if not now, *someday*.)