MI (RP/Trafalgar): Trump +2

[Hammy]

Numbers are too low to tell us much. Trafalgar starting to fall into the same trappings that the Clinton-2016 polling leads did.

[Hammy]

Well. I am really looking forward now to an official forum rule after the election that polls from Trafalgar are permanently banned.

This would be like a Quinnipiac poll having Biden up by 2 in Nebraska or Tennessee right now.

I'd rather Atlas not become the left wing version of RCP just so we cam collectively use the polls as comfort blankets.

And Trafalgar was more accurate than Quinnipiac so if one goes the other should.

[Hammy]

The absolute height of Buzz's delusion.

First thinks Florida is not competitive and now thinks Trump is winning Michigan.

I'm pretty sure posting polls =/= believing them.

Doing some comparison beyond the topline I posted on earlier, their poll in 2016 was 49-47 Trump--and they actually over-polled Trump by about 1.5 points while being correct on Hillary's.

Seeing how the final result is not 45-44 this entire poll is called into question.

[Hammy]

Something that occurred to me after I posted, is it me or does Trafalgar seem like they're having a problem with high undecideds across the board this election, and not just with this poll?

[Hammy]

Something that occurred to me after I posted, is it me or does Trafalgar seem like they're having a problem with high undecideds across the board this election, and not just with this poll?

Not sure if I'm understanding your question correctly but they have undecided at roughly 2%. Their undecided numbers from my observation have been actually lower than those of the average pollster.

Undecided/other. We're probably not getting 6% third party vote this year, and their 2016 poll only had 3% combined.

[Hammy]

The Biden collapse is real.

And Biden still leads in Trafalgar's PA and WI polls.

[Hammy]

Well. I am really looking forward now to an official forum rule after the election that polls from Trafalgar are permanently banned.

This would be like a Quinnipiac poll having Biden up by 2 in Nebraska or Tennessee right now.

I'd rather Atlas not become the left wing version of RCP just so we cam collectively use the polls as comfort blankets.

And Trafalgar was more accurate than Quinnipiac so if one goes the other should.

My comment was very tongue-in cheek, I'm not actually advocating banning any polls.

That being said, we'll have to wait and see how Trafalgar v. Quinnipiac shakes out, I find it very dubious that trafalgar is more accurate.

While I know Quinnipiac does have a D bias, I spoke in error as it was PPP I was thinking of that was completely out of it, 2016 comparison of the polls released today cleared it up for me.