Who will win the Wisconsin Republican Primary?

[Koharu]

It really depends on what parts of the state turn out. I think if the northern half of the state, as well as the extreme southwest part of the state, has good turn out, then Trump will do well. If the suburban areas turn out well, that pushes Kasich up more. I honestly don't understand Cruz, so it's hard for me to guess in regards to him.

I agree with earlier posters, though, in that I will not be surprised by whoever wins. They all seem possible to me.

[Koharu]

I don't understand why Wisconsin is supposed to be not naturally favorable turf for Trump. Could someone spell it out for me?

It's full of communitarian upper midwestern 'good governance' types who like people who are nice and don't like people who are brash. The Republican demographics tend to be more on the upper socio-economic status end of things in Wisconsin as well. The Wisconsin union voters tend to be more Democratic than in other midwestern states.

This.

There are definitely pockets where Trump will do exceedingly well, but again, it will depend so much on turnout. I don't think Trump will do well in Ryan's stomping grounds, and there just happen to be a lot more people there than in the rural areas. But then they are also going to be less fired up to vote, I think.