Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District has an open seat

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Allan Fung indicated that he would run for this seat nearly 2 months ago, but hasn't officially launched his campaign. If he is the nominee he can make a serious play at the seat, especially since there aren't many high profile Democrats in the race (the only one with even a little bit of name recognition is state Treasurer Seth Magaziner, who isn't exactly exciting).

Another serious GOP candidate - probably one of the best GOP recruits along with Fung for a congressional seat in RI in over a decade - is state Sen. Jessica de la Cruz. She represents Burrillville, Glocester, and part of North Smithfield in the state senate. Burrillville and Glocester are in RI-02 and are trending Republican more rapidly than just about any other part of the state - rural AND wwc. de la Cruz lives in North Smithfield, however, which is in RI-01. So she would technically be carpetbagging in terms of residence although she does represent part of RI-02 in the state senate. Either way, she os running an active campaign and it is clear there is more money and organization compared to previous GOP congressional runs in RI. She also is a young Portuguese woman, definitely a different background. She is one to watch for sure.

Overall this is a Likely D race, closer to Lean than Safe. GOP has better candidates, more enthusiasm, better national environment - but this district is still probably just a little bit too blue to overcome this, barring an R+7-10 national environment or so. Without the large chunk of Providence in the district, it would be close to Tossup territory.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Recent polling has shown Treasurer Seth Magaziner is more than comfortably leading the Democratic field, with all other candidates being completely unknown. It is worth noting that Magaziner is a resident of the elitist east side of Providence, which is in RI-01.

Sarah Morgenthau's entire campaign right now is solely focused on fending off accusations of being a carpetbagger (she has never been a permanent resident of Rhode Island). That alone will sink her campaign because RI hates outsiders. David Segal is racking up some progressive endorsements but that doesn't mean a lot in a state that really isn't all that progressive. Joy Fox, Omar Bah, and the others are struggling to scrape together 2-3%.

On the Republican side, Sen. Jessica de la Cruz dropped out and endorsed former Cranston mayor, and 2014 and 2018 gubernatorial nominee, Allan Fung. The super Trumpy candidate is former state Rep. Bob Lancia - he will put up a good fight against Fung but it seems unlikely he'll win the nomination.

Fung's path to beating Magaziner will be to kill it in normally blue Cranston like he did in 2018, get Trump 2016 numbers in western RI and wwc areas like Warwick, and hope for depressed Dem turnout in the heavily Latino part of Providence in the district. Certainly not impossible, and this is the best year for him to try, but this race is still Likely D.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

A new Boston Globe / Suffolk University poll finds Allan Fung (R) leads Seth Magaziner (D) by 6 points.

https://www.wpri.com/news/elections/poll-gorbea-takes-lead-foulkes-surges-fung-on-top-for-congress/

17% undecided, but still, this is not within the margin of error. Wave incoming?