Ukraine Crisis

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I'm not particularly crazy about manipulating with existing European borders.

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Btw, I'm now ignoring 4 people thanks to this thread.

Just 2 for me. For now.

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Btw, I'm now ignoring 4 people thanks to this thread.

Just 2 for me. For now.

Well tbf I'd be meaning to put Snowstalker on it for ages but I was lazy until I saw his sage attempts here...

And that's how Snowstalker became an un-person for us.

At least I did something productive today.

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We should certainly use this crisis as an excuse to seize the property of oligarchs in London.

That would be far more effective tool than talking nonsense as blocking Kaliningrad or setting up NATO bases on the Russian borders.

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Russia will invade and occupy Ukraine tomorrow morning it seems.

All of Ukraine? I'm still far from being convinced.

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2010 Ukraine presidential election: (Without Crimea)
Tymochenko: 50.2%
Ianoukovitch: 49.8%

Timochenko would have won. I tend to believe that Russians are "bluffing". If they annex Crimea, they will massively lose their influence in the rest of Ukraine. And I don't think it's what they want. Remember Stalin who wanted the Federal Republic of Germany and East Germany to merge and to be a "neutral" zone, a kind of "nomansland' between the two superpowers (and Adenauer refused this plan). Russia has always wanted to have a "buffer strip". And if they annex Crimea right now, Ukraine won't be a buffer strip anymore. That's why I believe they are bluffing.

I think the Russians want Crimea more than they want (or need) a buffer state. Finland, Estonia, and Latvia are NATO and EU states and they border Russia, with no buffer states between them.

Finlnd isn't a member of NATO. But you're right for Estonio and Latvia.
But if they annex Crimea, they will definitely lose their influence in  Ukraine!

Not all Ukraine.

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I've always considered ag as one of the most reasonable people here. That's why I'm disturbed with him predicting the doomsday.

Russia has just announced at the Security Council that Yanukovich asked for military help (they were unable to produce the living Yanukovich to do this - at his one press conference in Russia, though very nervous, lost, and talking nonsense he never uttered the words). You still wonder why I am preaching doom?

That's your indicator the WWIII is coming?

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I also remember invasion on Czechoslovakia caused a global war. Oh wait.

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Just read this line: "What's Happening In Crimea Would Be Like France Sending Troops To Quebec."

I think that's a tough analogy, since France doesn't border Quebec.

The analogy ppl keep coming to is Germany with Czechoslovakia in 1938.

The paranoia of any military crisis being the eve of the next Great War is embedded in the American psyche.

Except that in this case this is pretty much a description.

US has treaty obligations here. Either the invading Russian troops get bombed by US, UK (and, hopefully, the rest of the NATO troops), or US treaty obligations are not worth the paper they are written on. If US abandons Ukraine, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan might as well negotiate decent terms of joining China.

Ukraine is not Japan. Where's an analogy?

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The interesting poll in Crimea would be three choices: autonomous state in Ukraine, autonomous state in Russia, or full independence.

Hm, in the event of Crimea becoming a part of Russia I assume they would want a Republic status. Would be unusual, given native Russian population dominating here, as Republic status is pretty much reserved for ethnic regions (like Tatarstan, Chechnya, etc.)

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I checked, the United States gave no military guarantees to Ukraine whatsoever. Budapest Manifesto? The Manifesto does not carry military obligations. It does carry diplomatic ones and the U.S., as well as the EU states, are engaged in diplomacy.

Ag was referring to Japan and South Korea. There's no comparison, as there are clear military treaties in place.

Either the invading Russian troops get bombed by US, UK (and, hopefully, the rest of the NATO troops)

Now this is troubling. Not only you're preaching doom, you seem to look forward this eagerly. Bravo, a war of nuclear powers is surely going to help Ukraine and the rest of us.

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Seriously.

This is not 1938 nor 1939. I'm sick and tired of that extremely hyperbolic analogy, as I can hear it every day from my native nutjobs.

We live in the atomic age. That's why there never was a direct conflict between the West and the East. There were numerous crises, but come on, Ukraine, when compared to the Cuban Missile Crisis or Berlin standoff, is a storm in a teacup.

Russia is not going to attack NATO territory, NATO is not going to attack Russia. You may want this, but it ain't happening.

Putin is no Hitler, he doesn't look for a lebensraum to conquer.

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Appeasement is a lot more dangerous: if your objective is truly to avoid the war.

There are numerous ways to put an effective pressure on Moscow. Military engagements, big war games and threatening to mess with their borders are not among these options.

Please understand that not waving with your saber =/= doing nothing. It's not so hard to comprehend. Unless, of course, you're rooting for an armed conflict. In such case you're indeed a sorry mental case.

Today Crimea, tomorrow Berlin. Just remember that.

Really, dude, what are you getting from this?

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Want to get China on our side? Promise them all of Siberia if they would side with us against Russia if it were to actually come to anything. If it was the US/Europe/China/Japan agianst Russia they would probably be more likely to back down.

This isn't the 18th century; military conquest isn't actually a legitimate diplomatic instrument anymore.

Tell that to Putin.

Yeah, the United States, Japan, as well as the other powers, would be just trilled to have to deal with China reaching as far as the Northern Pole

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Looks like Putin has made a big mistake.

Sure he can annex Crimea, which will not receive any meaningful recognition, or turn it into another Transnistria (basically the same thing), but at huge cost. He's already losing influence in previously solid East and South Ukraine (windjammer being correct here) and the international reaction won't be nice.

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I don't see where he is making a mistake. Ukraine is leaving the Russian's zone of influence and he's trying to save what can be saved (and what matters most to Russian's interest).
Same thing goes with Georgia or Moldavia.

So he's trying to limit his losses, hardly a strategic victory regarding his own backyard.

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People really tend to underestimate diplomatic and political measures that has been applied already and more than can be applied. So no one is going to the economic war with Russia, you don't have to wage an economic war.

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Both the European Union and the United States reacted with such measures as imposing visa restrictions on Russia and suspending several agreements. Also, the former is about to sing  association agreements with Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova.

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The West and Russia both seem to support self-determination when it's convenient and oppose it when it isn't.

While I tend to agree in general, this time it is a bit more complicated. In the 1994 Budapest Convention, the USA, the UK and Russia have guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for Ukraine handing over all nuclear weapons inherited from the USSR. If any of the signatories now unilaterally questioned that accord, that would mean a massive blow to worldwide arms control, and put the international credibility of all parties at stake.

This. Also, the whole European stability depends on respecting existing borders. Russia's one-sided action threathens it's very foundation.

Naturally, changes should be possible, but only if it is a mutual agreement (like the German reunification or Czechoslovak separation) in accordance with the international law. Crimea is not the case.

There are a lot of skeletons in EU and U.S. closets and I'm always willing to condemn illegal and harmful actions by any government. But West in on the right side here.

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The West and Russia both seem to support self-determination when it's convenient and oppose it when it isn't.

Deep.

Kinda ironic coming from you.

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The West and Russia both seem to support self-determination when it's convenient and oppose it when it isn't.

Deep.

Kinda ironic coming from you.

Not as ironic as it coming from someone who supports sweatshops...

Not ironic, this is "rich".

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I've heard some reports Yanukovych is in hospital, heart attack suspected.

Kinda ironic coming from you.

Let the butthurt flow through you....

Some sick burn, brother.

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/05/putin-nobel-prize_n_4904768.html

Naturally some genius decided it was a brilliant idea to nominate Putin for a Nobel Peace Prize (Again).

Given Putin's invasion of Ukraine, and unnecessary meddling in Syria, this is totally inappropriate.

A lot of people gets nominated. Bush was nominated in 2003, right after Iraq, by some nutjob. Even Godwin character was nominated. Big f**king deal.

He's not getting Nobel anyway.

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Godwin ought to become an infractable offense.

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Godwin ought to become an infractable offense.

Under the circumstances, I woul not have expected this from a Pole.

Considering your amazing grasp on reality, I'm actually relieved to heard that.

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I think it's time for President Obama to ask for a Declaration of War against Russia

How f**king brave of you considering you neither would have to fight nor you live in the region.

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Guys, what about Sevastopol status? Sevastopol was not a part of the Crimean Republic.

95.5 percent for union with Russia. Most impressive.

Was there a boycott?

Leader of the Crimean Tatars claims, 99% of them boycotted the vote. Meanwhile, the Crimea Premier says, 40% did vote.