2022 French legislatives

[DavidB.]

Whar happened in Hérault 6th? Who is E. Ménard, the nationalist candidate with almost 70% of the vote against LFI?

[Frodo]

Analysis- French left pulls off election gamble, but unity going forward not so easy

[Oryxslayer]

Whar happened in Hérault 6th? Who is E. Ménard, the nationalist candidate with almost 70% of the vote against LFI?

Elected as RN backed indie in 2017 and won support of the LR voters.

[Oryxslayer]

Breakdown of NUPES:

66 LFI
28 PS
15 EELV
12 PCF
4 G.S
2 GE
7 Others

Does not include any from overseas departments.

[MaxQue]

Whar happened in Hérault 6th? Who is E. Ménard, the nationalist candidate with almost 70% of the vote against LFI?

The wife of the local mayor (and founder of Reporters without Borders) Robert Ménard, through she is not a RN candidate (they are endorsed by them, but they refused to join the party multiple times and he had good words for Macron recently).

[Oryxslayer]

There are dozens of different ways to count the final results based on the unaligned or non-major parties, so I'll let people pick what they prefer, and just give rough numbers.

Ensemble got around 250, NUPES around 140 or 150 depending on overseas, the Parliamentary right around 70, RN 89.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Outside of a few delirious months in 2017 I've never actually seen Jean-Luc Mélenchon as the saviour of the French left, but I can see why the people who do, do. He's probably one of the most powerful and inspiring speakers in Western politics today, even if I think he's using those talents to sell a load of crap for ultimately self-serving goals (not that that's unusual for French politicians...) - it's not hard to see why, with the PS of old dead, he's going to have a grip over the majority of the French left for as long as he wants it.

[parochial boy]

Outside of a few delirious months in 2017 I've never actually seen Jean-Luc Mélenchon as the saviour of the French left, but I can see why the people who do, do. He's probably one of the most powerful and inspiring speakers in Western politics today, even if I think he's using those talents to sell a load of crap for ultimately self-serving goals (not that that's unusual for French politicians...) - it's not hard to see why, with the PS of old dead, he's going to have a grip over the majority of the French left for as long as he wants it.

I don’t know overall though. He autodestructed post 2017 and it’s not exactly as if he has lost that capacity to alienate everyone who even slightly disagrees with him since then. Plus we have the same issue as ever which is that the guy manifestly had no interest in anything except the presidential election. Has no interest in developing the party into a structure with proper activists, grounded networks, a local implantation and all the rest.

I mean maybe the degree to which he did actually take the législatives seriously might indicate that that is changing, as might LFIs presence in the 93. But that is by no means the same as saying it will happen or that he hasn’t just been disillusioned by the exercise. Only time will tell, but while there definitely is the space for him or for LFI to lead the left, it does sort of depend on them not hashing it up and learning from what went wrong last time. And time for some other figures to step up to the plate.

Unless that is, the other hot take is that the age of parties is dead and gone in France. The three biggest parliamentary factions are not « parties » with activists and internal democracy and structured representation and all that. They are the personal vehicles of Macron, Le Pen and Jonluk. Which means that there won’t be a party leading the left because that’s not how it works any more. And the stakes of the next five years are about who can emerge as the leading figure on the left bloc, but also who will emerge as the successor in the liberal bloc. With the intermediate elections being the qualifying rounds or being played around local notables with no especially relevant partisan consequences. The far right one at least appears safe in Marines hands for the time being.

[RGM2609]

Is there any chance of the other parties under the Macronist specter betraying Dear Leader or are all of them basically non-entities?

[jaichind]

In seats where ENS-RN are in first or second, it was a near tie at  ENS 56 RN 53
In seats where NUS-RN are in first or second, it was an edge for RN at NUS 26 RN 34

[Oryxslayer]

RN advanced mainly in seats where they did well several weeks ago, but RN won 16(!) seats that Macron won in Round 2 of the 2022 Presidential Election, five of which she even failed to win in Round 1! The situations are outlined below:

Drôme 2: Macron won by 50.5% to 49.5%. In Round 1 it went Le Pen - Macron - Melenchon. RN defeats LFI.

Seine-et-Marne 6: Macron won by 50.5% to 49.5%. In Round 1 it went Le Pen - Melenchon - Macron. RN defeats LFI.

Charente 3: Macron won by 50.7% to 49.3%. In Round 1 it went Le Pen - Macron - Melenchon. RN defeats MoDem.

Bouches-du-Rhône 3: Macron won by 50.8% to 49.2%. In Round 1 it went Melenchon - Le Pen - Macron. RN defeats LFI.

Allier 2: Macron won by 50.9% to 49.1%. In Round 1 it went Le Pen - Macron - Melenchon. RN defeats LFI.

Aube 3: Macron won by 51% to 49%. In Round 1 it went Le Pen - Macron - Melenchon. RN defeats LREM.

Gard 1: Macron won by 51.7% to 48.3%. In Round 1 it went Le Pen - Melenchon - Macron. RN defeats LREM.

Loiret 3: Macron won by 52.5% to 47.5%. In Round 1 it went Le Pen - Macron - Melenchon. RN defeats MoDem.

Gironde 5: Macron won by 52.1% to 47.9%. In Round 1 it went Le Pen - Macron - Melenchon. RN defeats LFI.

Ain 4: Macron won by 52.5% to 47.5%. In Round 1 it went Le Pen - Macron - Melenchon. RN defeats LFI.

Yonne 1: Macron won by 53.3% to 46.7%. In Round 1 it went Le Pen - Macron - Melenchon. RN defeats EELV.

Essonne 2: Macron won by 53.6% to 46.4%. In Round 1 it went Le Pen - Macron - Melenchon. RN defeats LFI.

Tarn 1: Macron won by 54.5% to 45.5%. In Round 1 it went Macron - Le Pen - Melenchon. RN defeats LFI.

Nord 5: Macron won by 55.1% to 44.9%. In Round 1 it went Macron - Le Pen - Melenchon. RN defeats LFI in suburban Lille!

Vaucluse 1: Macron won by 58.1% to 41.9%. In Round 1 it went Melenchon - Le Pen - Macron. RN defeats LFI in Urban Avignon!

Marne 2: Macron won by 59.5% to 40.5%. In Round 1 it went Macron - Le Pen - Melenchon. RN defeats LFI in Urban Reims!



So what are the common themes. Firstly, most of these seats were marginal to begin with in a contest that disfavored Le Pen, and most had decent Far Right bases to begin with. More importantly though Melenchon often had little base of support in these seats, and it was LFI candidates losing. That final point has to be the sticker given what happened in Reims and Avignon since those are seats that would still favor Macron in a tight round 2 race with Le Pen.

Avignon in particular is striking since this was one of Melenchon's better seats outside of I-d-F and the overseas departments. Turnout didn't plummet here, and so one turns to the next reason LFI candidate Farid Faryssy gave to his loss...Racism...

[Oryxslayer]

Is there any chance of the other parties under the Macronist specter betraying Dear Leader or are all of them basically non-entities?

No, they'll apply pressure for positions, and maybe go against LREM on some votes, but Macron has their confidence. This is because the real prize for them, and others, is heading the coalition in 2027. You don't betray the coalition, but you do backroom deal and maneuver if you want that reward. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Avignon in particular is striking since this was one of Melenchon's better seats outside of I-d-F and the overseas departments. Turnout didn't plummet here, and so one turns to the next reason LFI candidate Farid Faryssy gave to his loss...Racism...

Which is a lazy excuse, but not exactly an obviously wrong one given the current climate in France on racial, religious, and national-identity issues.

[omar04]

https://twitter.com/_JeanLannes/status/1538662501272936462

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/963043157308760077/988220664500584458/LARGE2022electionlelegislative.png

[Zinneke]

Is there any chance of the other parties under the Macronist specter betraying Dear Leader or are all of them basically non-entities?

Horizons is the personal vehicle of Edouard Philippe and there are definitely rumours that Macron's political vehicle were very reluctant to give the ex-PM a political space. I highly doubt they leave the majority but they follow their own Dear Leader, not Macron's inner circle.

[Velasco]

Is there any chance of the other parties under the Macronist specter betraying Dear Leader or are all of them basically non-entities?

Horizons is the personal vehicle of Edouard Philippe and there are definitely rumours that Macron's political vehicle were very reluctant to give the ex-PM a political space. I highly doubt they leave the majority but they follow their own Dear Leader, not Macron's inner circle.

Worrh noting that, alongside the demise of the traditional Gaullist and Socialist artifacts, the main political groups in French politics are personal vehicles: EM/Ensemble £Macron), FN/RN (Le Pen) and LFI/NUPES (Mélenchon). I mean, the former vehicles of De Gaulle and Miterrand were apparently more resembling of proper political organizations

[patzer]

Gonna go against the grain of predictions here- I think it's possible that Ensemble and NUPES end up a similar amount of votes each in round 2 and therefore a similar number of seats each, given that poll suggesting RN transfers leaning towards NUPES.

Of course that poll could have been wrong, but something along the lines of ENS 240, NUP 230, RN 50, LR 40 would not surprise me.

Huh, so my pre-election prediction was actually very accurate for ENS, and also got RN being on the higher end and exceeding LR.

It was just way off for NUPES.

[RGM2609]

Thanks! Also what is the deal with MoDem? Does Bayrou dream of running for President at 76 in 2027?

[jaichind]

The ratio of 1st round first place finishes vs 2nd round victories by major blocs

NUP: 187 to 131    70.1%
ENS: 201 to 245  121.9%
LR:     41 to  61   148.8%
RN:   110 to  89    80.9%

[Ethelberth]

Inside NUP there should be differences between different constitute parties.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

And the secret is revealed:

Ipsos statistic: 72% of Round 1 Ensemble voters in NUPES/RN runoffs stayed home, with the rest dividing marginally for NUPES. So All that was left in the electorate was LR/UDI voters, who went RN, and the now outnumbered NUPES.

Anyone who now supports Macron is more evil than the far-right itself.

This is just obviously untrue, I don't think there's anything more to be said.

it's proven this night.

I really don't think people who stay home in left-far right runoffs are worse than people who actually vote for the far right, although they've definitely earned a place chasing the banner in the vestibule of hell.

Do people like Laki who advocated for voting for the far right over Macron as a leftist also belong in a "vestibule of hell"?

[DL]

Are there ANY policies whatsoever where there is a difference of opinion between Ensemble and LR?

[jaichind]

If I understand correctly gifle means humiliation

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Is there any chance of the other parties under the Macronist specter betraying Dear Leader or are all of them basically non-entities?

Horizons is the personal vehicle of Edouard Philippe and there are definitely rumours that Macron's political vehicle were very reluctant to give the ex-PM a political space. I highly doubt they leave the majority but they follow their own Dear Leader, not Macron's inner circle.

Macron doesn't seem to have noticed he can't run in 2027.

[jaichind]

My final quick seat-by-seat eyeball guesses knowing nothing about the history of the candidates or seats.

ENS          269
pro-ENS        4
NUP          166
pro-NUP      12
Other Left     5
LR              60
UDI              3
pro-LR          6
RN              36
pro-RN          2
Others         13

My dumb eyeball technique was wrong in 80 out of 577 seats.  54 of the 80 misses were RN unexpectedly beating ENS or NUP.  I pretty much got almost all of the LR seats right and only missed a few ENS-NUP battles.  I also missed a bunch of overseas seats since party labels there tell you nothing about what voter preferences might be.