What will become of the Georgia Two?

[Adlai Stevenson]

Both Jim Marshall and John Barrow barely won re-election in 2006.  Given that 2008 is a presidential year and Georgia is a Republican state, what do you think will happen to them?  I think Marshall is more likely to win re-election than Barrow is (just a hunch).  But I could also see one of them being pressured to run for the Senate against Saxby Chambliss.  If it becomes obvious they're going to lose they might decide to go for broke and run against Chambliss. 

[Keystone Phil]

If Burns and Collins run again, both are done.

[swami7774]

Agree. Both barely squeaked by this year, with the worst anti-Republican atmosphere since 1974.
They're toast in '08--PROVIDED the RNC recruits good candidates.

Getting these two seats is vital to any hope of regaining the majority, because in my neck of the woods(New England), the GOP is officially dead at nearly every level.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Neither of you voted.  Why not!?

[Keystone Phil]

Neither of you voted.  Why not!?

Not sure if I should since I provided an "if." If they don't recruit those two again, Marshall and Barrow could keep the seats.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Neither of you voted.  Why not!?

Not sure if I should since I provided an "if." If they don't recruit those two again, Marshall and Barrow could keep the seats.

Fair enough.  But I imagine both Collins and Burns will be ambitious to run again if they think they can win.  Georgia is going to become a very tough state for Democrats in the coming years. 

[Virginian87]

Georgia is going to become a very tough state for Democrats in the coming years. 

Damn shame, isn't it?  Because I'd really like to see that pile of garbage Saxby Chambliss replaced with a Democrat.  Where are the Sam Nunn's and Roy Barnes's-type people when you need them? 

I just hope the Democrats wouldn't run some minority, Erik Fleming-like  candidate against them.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Georgia is going to become a very tough state for Democrats in the coming years. 

Damn shame, isn't it?  Because I'd really like to see that pile of garbage Saxby Chambliss replaced with a Democrat.  Where are the Sam Nunn's and Roy Barnes's-type people when you need them? 

I just hope the Democrats wouldn't run some minority, Erik Fleming-like  candidate against them.

That is why I think Marshall might as well run against Chambliss.  He would be likely to lose but he could run a close race.  He is an old opponent who held Chambliss to his toughest re-election margin in 2000 in Congress.  But then again I think Marshall is more likely to hold on than Barrow is so unless its obvious they are both going to lose Marshall should probably try to entrench himself.  One possible other Democrat to challenge Chambliss could be Kathy Cox.  I think it was stupid of her to run for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination this year and now her post as Secretary of State has been sacrificed to the Republicans.  Still, she would do better than a Flemingesque candidate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's too early to tell really... both were running in districts that included large areas in which they were more-or-less unknown and they now have two years to change that. Marshall for one has shown in the past that he can pick up a lot of new voters over two years.

Also note that the next election being in a Presidential year won't hurt Barrow; Kerry won his district in 2004 (even under the new lines) IIRC. Democratic turnout in eastern Georgia was awful this year.

[Conan]

If Burns and Collins run again, both are done.

I think the republicans got their maximum votes. Midterms are a lot easier to knock off incumbents because all you have to do is have greater turnout for your party because the overall turnout in all is low.

[Sam Spade]

Marshall will be in more trouble than Barrow.  Al is quite right on the turnout issue in GA-12.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

A lot depends on what happens with the Democratic Congress in 2007.  Assuming that it does as its leaders say they will, both Marshall and Barrow are in good shape.  Both Collins and Burns now have the stigma of having lost two straight elections.  They'll have a tough time winning the GOP primaries in 2008, let alone the general election.  IBarrow is clearly the weaker of the two.  Indeed, if the GOP had run a better candidate than Burns (he only won in 2002 because of the ethical baggage of the Democratic candidate) Barrow might well have lost this time, but a two-yerm incumbent is harder to beat than a one-termer.

[Flying Dog]

I think they both will win narrowly.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

That mid-decade gerrymandering designed to defeat them didn't get them yet, but it could get one or both of them in 2008.

[nclib]

I think they both will win narrowly.

What is the UP so democratic?

Not sure, but it's only Democratic on Gubernatorial and Senatorial races--for President it's evenly divided.

[socaldem]

As others have pointed out, the new GA-12 is more Democratic than the old one except it excised Athens County, Barrow's hometown and added additional African-Americans.  Barrow is really not the greatest politician in the world and Burns is fairly decent, so given the circumstances and a good year for the Georgia GOP, I'm not suprised at the close margin.  As others have pointed out, turn-out in the district was low (read: few black voters going to polls).  In a Presidential year, expect more black voters and a more solid Barrows victory.  In 2008, Barrows will also likely face a worse opponent and will have gotten to know the new territory in his district better.  Barrow, btw, would be a terrible statewide candidate so I don't expect him to give up his seat for a Quixotic statewide run.  One of these days, though, he may be primaried...

Jim Marshall is in a completely different position.  Marshall has proven to be an excellent campaigner and its to his credit that he was able to hold on in his insanely GOP district.  However, Collins may not have been his strongest opponent and he will likely someday face an anti-Democratic environment that would dislodge him from the seat.

Marshall has the perfect profile to run against Saxby Chambliss and I think he could very well win.  Moreover, the fact that his district changed may have helped him acquaint himself with additional Georgia voters that he needs to pick up in a statewide run. 

Chambliss doesn't seem to be particularly popular so I think Marshall would have a 50/50 chance at least.

[nclib]

As others have pointed out, the new GA-12 is more Democratic than the old one except it excised Athens County, Barrow's hometown and added additional African-Americans.

By Democratic, do you mean registration or Presidential voting? If it's the latter, Polidata actually measured the new GA-12 to be slightly more Republican.

[socaldem]

As others have pointed out, the new GA-12 is more Democratic than the old one except it excised Athens County, Barrow's hometown and added additional African-Americans.

By Democratic, do you mean registration or Presidential voting? If it's the latter, Polidata actually measured the new GA-12 to be slightly more Republican.

Okay, maybe I'm wrong.  But I think its only marginally less democratic by presidential vote.  In any case, a seat a generic Democrat should hold.

[Nym90]

I think they both will win narrowly.

What is the UP so democratic?

Not sure, but it's only Democratic on Gubernatorial and Senatorial races--for President it's evenly divided.

It's a heavy union area, though socially conservative. It's basically populist. This year, with the heavy Democratic tide and the GOP running strong economic conservatives in Michigan, it returned to its traditional Democratic roots.

[Nym90]

I wouldn't be so sure these two will lose in 2008 based simply on the logic that they barely squeaked by this year in a strong Democratic year and thus are automatically toast assuming that conditions will be better for Republicans. Both won in 2004 which was a strong GOP year, especially in Georgia with Bush and Isakson at the top of the ticket winning big. Especially in GA-12 I wouldn't at all assume Burns can beat Barrow in 2008 considering he lost to him in 2004.

[Eraserhead]

Both win.

[HardRCafé]

One possible other Democrat to challenge Chambliss could be Kathy Cox.

Kathy Cox is a Republican.

[Adlai Stevenson]

One possible other Democrat to challenge Chambliss could be Kathy Cox.

Kathy Cox is a Republican.

OK then.  How about Cathy Cox.

[HardRCafé]

I think Cathy Cox is a setback to women in politics, but she has nothing to lose at this point and could catch a wave in a perfect storm.  Even a brilliant Georgia Democrat would need a perfect storm, so:  sure, why not?