2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[ElectionsGuy]

Early and mail in vote will probably overstate McCormick's support in PA, McCrory's support in NC, and next week in GA Kemp's support. It may or may not come in first, but should be noted before people make some poorly aged claims.

[wbrocks67]

Early and mail in vote will probably overstate McCormick's support in PA, McCrory's support in NC, and next week in GA Kemp's support. It may or may not come in first, but should be noted before people make some poorly aged claims.

True, though people should remember that the mail in vote may come last in PA given that we're still in the old ages with not being able to pre-canvass still

[Gracile]

I'm most interested in the OR-05 and PA-12 Democratic primaries tonight.

[n1240]

Early and mail in vote will probably overstate McCormick's support in PA, McCrory's support in NC, and next week in GA Kemp's support. It may or may not come in first, but should be noted before people make some poorly aged claims.

PA returns will probably look similar to what we had in 2020, because they still have the same laws in place that prohibited them from opening mail ballots until 7 am today. Very early returns will be less Trumpy since it'll probably be the bigger counties posting partial mail results first, then a long wave of more Trumpy vote since some of the rural counties will start posting election day results first, as the big counties transition to reporting mostly election day, then a return to a mode where mail vote becomes more dominant. I can't necessarily expect the trend to be exactly the same as it was in 2020, but there will definitely be a level of choppiness in how the trends in initial returns look by county

[Sol]

Prediction for NC House primaries: Foushee wins the NC-04 primary by like 10-15 points, winning every county. Hope I'm wrong!

Allam will win some precincts in Durham--basically all of the heavily white ones plus the tiny one that has NC Central maybe. She'll probably also win in the more working class parts of Carrboro.

Clay Aiken will run a distant 3rd, doing best outside of Durham and Orange counties.

[wbrocks67]

Do we think Cawthorn will lose?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am getting to start liking NC and FL again Demings and Beasley are tied in the polls I think the dislike for Kamala is starting to wane, especially since Roe decision, that's why Beasley and Demings were doing so poorly because of Dislike for Harris

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

RACES TO FOLLOW:

OR-GOV
OR-06 (D and R)
PA-GOV
PA-SEN
NC-SEN

[Sol]

Do we think Cawthorn will lose?

Honestly I think he will.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Do we think Cawthorn will lose?

I do.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Do we think Cawthorn will lose?

Honestly I think he will.

Oh shoot, I've been so excited about the PA primaries -- I'd totally forgotten about this storyline. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hopefully Bob Tiernan wins the primary for Governor though I wouldnt mind Bob Pierce too. Drazen imo would be a bad candidate as she is way to robotic and Pulliam would be a disaster

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/17/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-north-carolina-oregon-idaho-kentucky-primaries.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2022&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc


First polls close at 6 ET in Eastern KY

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/RyanDeto/status/1526657453609439234?t=-uPUd_DOYqi6I4_TOZDL1g...

[Senator Incitatus]

I wouldn't expect a winner in the R-SEN primary tonight, then. And since Sands is on the ballot, I'm not sure I can even confidently say what the Lancaster margins will look like.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Embarrassing because this same issue happened last year too.

[Minnesota Mike]

KY-03 (D) early results, McGarvey up 2-1 with about 6,100 votes in.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling KY-5 R for Rogers!

[xavier110]

My hopes:
- Cawthorn barely wins, gets to attend another cocaine orgy
- Carrick Flynn loses
- PA Rep Sen is pure chaos, recount territory, with everyone claiming they won

[Sestak]

Yeah looks like TikTok boy is going to succeed Yarmuth fairly easily.

[Morning in Atlas]

Yeah looks like TikTok boy is going to succeed Yarmuth fairly easily.

Absolutely haram.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I really am enjoying the customary thread lull before the polls close.  It's kinda like a pre-party before everybody arrives. 

(And then the floodgates open where you can't post anything without getting hung up on Warning - while you were typing 16 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post.)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling KY-6 R for Barr!

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Close to calling both Senate primaries. Would be cool if Paul gets less than Booker.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 is liveblogging tonight's results: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/pa-nc-primary-elections-2022/