The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Tender Branson]

New general polls about Austria (& Germany) and the Church (scandals):

20% of Austrians consider leaving the Catholic Church right now, because of the recent sex scandals within the Catholic church throughout Europe.

According to a new IMAS poll, 83% of Austrians consider themselves Christian (78% Catholics, 5% Protestants) and 17% have either another faith (6% Islam) or no faith.

By 41-34, Austrians also say that the 10 Commandments are a strict guideline of everyday life.

83% of Austrians and 87% of Germans (Infratest dimap) also want to abolish the Celibate.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting turn of events recently:

The Austrian public TV broadcaster ORF apparently paid 2 skinheads to attend a FPÖ-campaign event in Wiener Neustadt where FPÖ leader Strache was giving autographs and when they were next to Strache they should shout: "Sieg Heil !" on camera.

Strache says he has a private video of the incident where they actually say it and says the ORF has manipulated their video material so that the skinheads said something else. He said the FPÖ will release their video soon, the ORF has already released their video.

The police is now investigating the events. If the ORF was really trying to scandalize Strache, this would be huge news and a huge scandal for the ORF ...

The last thing we need right now is a 1986 redux, in which people think the FPÖ is the victim of the leftist media and support Rosenkranz just because of these attacks (the "more-than-ever-campaign").

[Tender Branson]

Today, there are town council and mayoral elections in the state of Styria, which will hold state elections later in the fall. 800.000 people are eligible to vote (in all cities, except the capital Graz). Here`s a map of the 2005 Styria town council elections:



In 2005, the SPÖ gained strongly and was basically tied with the ÖVP, which served as an early indicator of the following ÖVP`s defeat in the 2005 state elections.

This time it is expected that the SPÖ will lose and that the ÖVP and the FPÖ will gain.

Today, there`s also a referendum in 3 counties in Southern Burgenland on the construction of an asylum center. I think that 60-80% of voters will vote AGAINST the construction. The town in which the ÖVP-proposed center should be built, has already voted a few weeks ago: 92% were against the construction.

[Tender Branson]

Early reports indicate heavy losses for the SPÖ in many places (-5 to -15%), in others the SPÖ fell by almost 30% and the ÖVP is gaining strongly. The FPÖ remains relatively low in the early reports. Official numbers will be released in about 1 hour when the polls in all cities are closed.

Turnout should remain high due to good weather. Something like 80%.

[Tender Branson]

The town Eberau in Southern Burgenland where the asylum center should be built has now released their results and even more people voted "NO" this time than 1 month ago: 96%.

Results from cities in all 3 counties voting on the center today will be released in about 1 hour.

[Tender Branson]

With 453 of 540 cities in Styria counted:

ÖVP: 50.70% (+3.36%)
SPÖ: 35.44% (-4.73%)
FPÖ: 5.98% (+0.19%)
Greens: 1.57%
KPÖ: 0.85%
BZÖ: 0.42%
Independents: 5.04%

Turnout: 79.27% (nc)

Many bigger cities are left and the margin between ÖVP and SPÖ will narrow.

[Tender Branson]

Results of the referendum in 3 counties in Southern Burgenland:

"Do you favor or oppose building a center for asylum seekers in Southern Burgenland ?"

94.41% NO
5.59% YES

The highest YES vote was in Stinatz with 15.2%, the lowest in Wolfau with 2.1%

[Tender Branson]

Final results in Styria:

ÖVP: 46.72% (+3.36%)
SPÖ: 37.73% (-5.60%)
FPÖ:   6.52% (+0.68%)
GRE:   2.08% (-0.24%)
KPÖ:   1.13% (+0.46%)
BZÖ:   0.57% (+0.57%)
IND:    5.25% (+0.77%)

Mandates:

ÖVP: 4.081 (+263)
SPÖ: 2.574 (-366)
FPÖ:    354 (+51)
GRE:      83 (-11)
KPÖ:      28 (+15)
BZÖ:      13 (+13)
IND:     374 (+35)

Turnout: 77.33% (-0.48%)

https://egov.stmk.gv.at/wahlen/GR2010/GR2010_60000.html

Well this certainly means that the SPÖ will have a very tough time in the fall to defend their 2005 results.

Governor Franz Voves of the SPÖ could be gone in a few months if ÖVP/FPÖ form a coalition.

[Tender Branson]

Currently I´m still undecided if I should sign a petition for Rudolf Gehring, the fundie from the CPÖ (Christian Party of Austria) to appear on the Presidential ballot.

The deadline for obtaining the 6000 signatures ends on Friday and Gehring currently has 4500.

Even though I´m against the platform of the Christian Party, I play with the thought of signing the petition to see the CPÖ on the ballot, to see how many ÖVP voters actually back them and also to see the CPÖ act as a spoiler for Rosenkranz and the FPÖ.

So, what do you think I should do in the next 3 days ?

[Tender Branson]

Right now, President Heinz Fischer (SPÖ) is starting his official campaign for re-election with a speech in Vienna.

Currently Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann (SPÖ) is speaking.

http://www.heinzfischer.at/livestream

[Tender Branson]

Do it.

That probably won`t be necessary. In the latest newspaper reports it says that Gehring now has more than 5000 signatures, which means he`s collecting about 500 signatures every day now and there are still 3 days to go. And if a candidate is close to the 6000 he can apply for an extension at the Interior ministry, to collect signatures for 3 additional days.

Plus: Rosenkranz has submitted 11.000 signatures to the Interior ministry yesterday.

[Tender Branson]

Latest Styria state elections poll by OGM for "News":

ÖVP: 39% (nc)
SPÖ: 37% (-5)
FPÖ: 10% (+5)
GRE: 7% (+2)
KPÖ: 3% (-3)
BZÖ: 3% (+1)
Others: 1% (nc)

Right: 52% (+6)
Left: 47% (-6)

http://www.news.at/articles/1012/11/265060/news-ogm-umfrage-steiermark-wahl-die-spoe-oevp

OGM also asked Austrians if they favor a complete smoking ban - proposed by the Greens - in all bars and pubs:

52% Oppose
45% Support

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100324_OTS0134/news-repraesentativ-umfrage-knappe-mehrheit-gegen-rauchverbot

[Tender Branson]

Latest federal poll - ATV Austria Trend by Peter Hajek:

ÖVP: 35% (+9%)
SPÖ: 28% (-1%)
FPÖ: 20% (+2%)
GRE: 11% (+1%)
BZÖ: 3% (-8%)
Others: 3% (-3%)

Right: 58% (+3%)
Left: 39% (nc)

Direct vote for Chancellor:

Josef Pröll (ÖVP): 29%
Werner Faymann (SPÖ): 18%
H.C. Strache (FPÖ): 10%
Eva Glawischnig (GRE): 5%
Josef Bucher (BZÖ): 2%

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100324_OTS0218/atv-oesterreich-trend-faymann-weiter-im-tief-nur-18-bei-kanzlerfrage

[Tender Branson]

Rudolf Gehring of the Austrian Christian Party (CPÖ) has announced yesterday that he has more than the 6000 signatures that are needed to be on the Presidential ballot.

Therefore he`s the 3rd and final candidate for President. He doesn`t have a lot of money to run a campaign, nor does he have any media attention. I don`t really see him getting more than 5%, but he could get more if some ÖVP voters decide to support him.

On the other hand, President Heinz Fischer is starting his re-election campaign with a bus-tour across Austria:

[Tender Branson]

Also yesterday, about 6000 people turned out in Vienna to protest the presidential candidacy of Barbara Rosenkranz (FPÖ) in a "sea of lights", initiated by leftist groups, influential media people, actors, writers, students, the Austrian Jewish Council, and the creator of the biggest Anti-Rosenkranz Facebook group which already has 100.000 members:

[Tender Branson]

The number of signatures submitted to the Interior Ministry (the deadline for Presidential signatures was yesterday):

Fischer: 45.000
Rosenkranz: 10.500
Gehring: 8.000

The preliminary number of eligible voters in Austria for April 25:

6.354.551 (+323.569, +5.4% compared with 2004) => 85% of all Austrian citizens.

3.306.479 women
3.048.072 men

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/bundespraes/bpw_2010/Wahlberechtigte.aspx

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup/Ö24 poll:

Fischer: 86.4%
Rosenkranz: 13.6%

Plus: 44.6% of FPÖ-voters say they will vote for Fischer.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100327_OTS0064/oesterreich-nur-mehr-136-prozent-fuer-rosenkranz/channel/politik

[Tender Branson]

Has not really much to do with the election, but yesterday the new Swiss President - Doris Leuthard - visited Vienna and President Heinz Fischer. Still very good publicity for Fischer to show that he`s the experienced incumbent with good relations around the globe - contrary to Rosenkranz. Some pics:





 

[Tender Branson]

Swiss President?

Yepp:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Switzerland

[Tender Branson]

President Fischer has argued that Parliament should create a 8-year term for President, without the possibility of re-election, primarily to cut tax costs and avoid costly campaigns for the parties.

I guess this would make us the only country with Presidential 8-year terms, or do you know any other countries (except the dictator-countries like Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea, etc.) ?

[Tender Branson]

Well, 3 new polls:

ATV Austria Trend (1000 Austrians 16+ questioned)

Fischer: 80%
Rosenkranz: 13%
Other candidate: 2%
Invalid: 5%

Turnout projection:

63% will definitely vote
17% will probably vote
13% will not vote
7% are undecided

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100331_OTS0109/atv-oesterreich-trend-fischer-mit-80-favorit-vor-rosenkranz-mit-13

Market (1000 Austrians 16+ questioned)

ÖVP: 31% (+5)
SPÖ: 27% (-2)
FPÖ: 21% (+3)
GRE: 12% (+2)
BZÖ: 4% (-7)
OTH: 5% (-1)

http://www.market.at/news/index.php/action.view/entity.news_detail/key.436/

Karmasin for Profil

"Do you want the Pope to step down ?"

Yes: 34%
No: 57%

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100401_OTS0006/profil-jeder-dritte-fuer-ruecktritt-des-papstes/channel/politik

[Tender Branson]

New Market/Standard poll:

Fischer: 71%
Rosenkranz: 13%
Gehring: 2%
Undecided: 14%

http://derstandard.at/1269448736365/71-Prozent-fuer-Fischer-13-Prozent-fuer-Rosenkranz

[Tender Branson]

Also:

Unemployment in the country is now dropping for the first time since the economic crisis began. At the end of March, 266.000 people were unemployed, which is down by 2% compared with March 2009. The national unemployment rate was 7.5% in March, the Eurostat calculated rate was 5.0% for February (second lowest in the EU).

Unemployment rates by state:

Salzburg (yeah): 4.6%
Upper Austria: 5.4%
Tyrol: 5.7%
Vorarlberg: 6.9%
Styria: 8.0%
Lower Austria: 8.2%
Vienna: 8.7%
Burgenland: 9.1%
Carinthia (lol): 10.6%

[Tender Branson]

Here are 2 maps showing in which areas of Austria Rosenkranz and Gehring might have the biggest potential in the upcoming Presidential elections:

The first map shows the combined percentage of the Austrian Right in the 2008 elections.



Right: Light Blue = 50-60%, Medium Blue = 60-70%, Dark Blue = 70-80%
Left: Red (50-60%)

The second map shows which counties were won by the Far-Right (FPÖ+BZÖ+CPÖ).



Far-Right: Blue
ÖVP: Black
SPÖ: Red

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup/Ö24 poll:

Fischer: 82%
Rosenkranz: 14%
Gehring: 4%

FPÖ-voters:

Rosenkranz: 44%
Fischer: 25%

ÖVP-voters:

Fischer: 64%
Rosenkranz: 8%

Rosenkranz support in some states:

Vienna: 4%
Tyrol: 10%
Lower Austria: 10%

(Don`t know how Gallup thinks Rosenkranz will get 14% if she only has 4-10% in Austria`s largest states. Probably based on the fact that they only questioned 400 people. I guess Rosenkranz slightly underpolls right now by about 3-5%, but we'll see on election day.)

Overall, 78% of the people questioned by Gallup said they have already decided who to vote for, while 18% are still undecided how they will vote.

Turnout is now projected to be around 66% (-6% compared with 2004).

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100409_OTS0279/oesterreich-umfrage-fischer-mit-82-prozent-weiter-klar-vor-rosenkranz-mit-14-prozent-gehring-bei-4-prozent

There`s also a new general election poll by Gallup for Ö24:

ÖVP: 34%
SPÖ: 29%
FPÖ: 20%
GRE: 12%
BZÖ: 3%
OTH: 2%

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100410_OTS0001/oesterreich-umfrage-oevp-schon-5-prozentpunkte-vor-der-spoe