The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Tender Branson]

New Presidential poll by OGM for News:

Fischer (SPÖ): 74% (-5)
Rosenkranz (FPÖ): 26% (+5)

Turnout should drop to as low as 58% according to the poll, because many ÖVP, Green and BZÖ voters are staying at home.

Rosenkranz has given a few interviews so far and has now started a full fight for Freedom of Speech and she wants to abolish Austria`s law of Nazi prohibition.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verbotsgesetz_1947

For example she said that Freedom of Speech should also apply for the most scurrile, absurdest and reprehensible opinions. In many interviews she has said that the denial of the existence of gas chambers in WW2 should be part of Freedom of Speech.

Meanwhile, the Neo-Nazi Austrian NVP (Nationale Volkspartei) has endorsed Rosenkranz's candidacy, saying that she`s full in line with NVP issues. The NVP was banned to participate in the 2009 Upper Austria state elections because it violated the above mentioned Verbotsgesetz.

The ÖVP, the Greens and the BZÖ leaders on the other hand refused to endorse Fischer over Rosenkranz, saying that their voters are politically mature enough to vote for a candidate.

[Tender Branson]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verbotsgesetz_1947

A Vienna lawyer has sued Rosenkranz today because of violation of the above mentioned Verbotsgesetz. The FPÖ is now suing the lawyer and Rosenkranz now says "she doesn`t want to abolish the Verbotsgesetz".

President Fischer, until now very quiet about Rosenkranz, attacked her really hard today and said that he wants a firewall against Nazism in Austria and that her denial/positions on the Holocaust are completely wrong and cannot be tolerated.

Also, members of the ÖVP and Greens are now starting to attack Rosenkranz.

Let`s see how this impacts her poll numbers. Normally, attacks by the Left lead to an increase of Far-Right poll support here ...

[Tender Branson]

New Standard/Market poll:

Fischer: 65%
Rosenkranz: 17%
Undecided: 18%

Interestingly (well not really), Green voters are most likely to back Fischer over Rosenkranz.

84% of Austrians believe that Fischer will win the Presidential election, 6% say Rosenkranz and 3% say another candidate will win (even if there's no other candidate yet).

48% of Austrians say they are satisfied with the current field of candidates (only 2), 46% are not satisfied and want more candidates (especially ÖVP and Green voters).

http://derstandard.at/1267743364505/46-Prozent-wuenschen-sich-Alternative-zu-Fischer-und-Rosenkranz

Rosenkranz is coming under more criticism from SPÖ, ÖVP and Green party officials - with some ÖVP members calling her "unacceptable" for ÖVP voters and yeah, Green officials are generally very anti-Nazi and Alexander Van der Bellen is backing Fischer`s re-election.

Also, Cardinal Christoph Schönborn has attacked Rosenkranz and called her "unelectable".

[Tender Branson]

Disgusting:

Facebook group shut as users call for Nazi camp reopening

A Facebook group calling for the "reopening" of Austrian concentration camp Mauthausen was taken offline after winning more than 13,000 members, officials have said.

Political scientist Markus Rachbauer said members of the group called "Child abusers, we’ll reopen Mauthausen for you!" belittled Nazi era crimes.

"People posting messages there called for torture and murder," he said.

Facebook user Antonia F., for example, wrote she would "personally turn up the gas" for child abusers, while others suggested drug dealers, murderers and "social benefits parasites" should be gassed.

Willy Mernyi, head of the Mauthausen Committee Austria (MKÖ), said: "We immediately appealed to Facebook to shut this group down when we heard of its existence."

The Austrian Constitution Protection Authority (BVT) said today (Fri) it was investigating.

http://austrianindependent.com/news/General_News/2010-03-05/1403/Facebook_group_shut_as_users_call_for_Nazi_camp_reopening

VIENNA (Reuters) - A former concentration camp in Austria has been vandalized with anti-Semitic and anti-Turkish graffiti by suspected far-right activists, police and officials said on Friday.

Abuse was scrawled on the outer wall of the Mauthausen camp near Linz overnight and no culprits had been found, Michael Tischlinger, head of the provincial anti-terrorism police, told the Austrian Press Agency.

"Such a desecration is not a prank, the culprits had a select target," said Willi Mernyi, head of the Mauthausen Committee which helps oversee the site where around 100,000 people died during Nazi rule in Austria in 1938-45.

"There is an active far-right scene in Upper Austria that does not even shrink away from vandalizing a former concentration camp," Mernyi said in a statement.

The case shows authorities need to clamp down more on the extreme right, local Social Democrat politician Josef Ackerl said. Local police and Austria's interior ministry were not available for comment.

Far-right parties together captured nearly a third of the vote in Austria's 2008 national elections and feed off xenophobia and anti-European sentiment in the insular Alpine Republic.

http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCATRE6243PH20100305

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian Communist Party (KPÖ) wants the Interior Ministry to ban the presidential candidacy of Barbara Rosenkranz, because according to them she violates the Verbotsgesetz.

Rosenkranz is now also attacked by FPÖ-members: The Tyrol-FPÖ leader Gerald Hauser said that her positions about the Verbotsgesetz and about the existence of gas chambers in WW2 are not "in line with the mainstream of the FPÖ".

[Tender Branson]

After hiding behind extreme right-wing codes like "questioning the existence of gas chambers during WW2 is freedom of speech" and "I`ve grown up with the historical image of WW2 that was taught from 1946-1970" and big pressure from the media, party officials and intellectuals, Rosenkranz has said in a "Presse" interview today that "the existence of gas chambers and murdering of people there is undeniable." She`ll also give a speech/interview about it on Monday to distance herself more from the extreme views.

Don´t know though if her statement on Monday will lead to voters being more likely to vote for her, like Obama`s Philly speech saved his campaign.

For me at least, a Nazi-Wolf who eats the chalk is still a Nazi-Wolf.

[Tender Branson]

New IMAS/Kronen Zeitung poll for next Sunday`s Styria town council elections:

ÖVP: 43%
SPÖ: 40%
FPÖ: 7%
Greens: 3%
Others: 7%

And the same poll for the Styria state elections in the fall:

ÖVP: 39%
SPÖ: 39%
Greens: 9%
FPÖ: 7%
KPÖ: 5%
BZÖ: 2%

[Tender Branson]

At a press conference today and in presence of a notary, Rosenkranz repeated in a statutory  declaration (which she then signed) that she condemned in firm conviction the crimes of National Socialism and that she decidedly dissociates herself from the Nazi ideology. She also said that she doesn't want to abolish the Austrian Verbotsgesetz and that she never called it into question.

Officials from the other parties though called her statement worthless and that she remains unelectable. Josef Bucher from the BZÖ called on the ÖVP to nominate an independent bourgeois/center-right candidate, because Fischer is a far-left Socialist and Rosenkranz a weirdo Right-winger.

Let`s see what the next polls are saying: I guess Fischer will drop to about 60%, Rosenkranz will have about 20% and the rest undecided.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ isn´t coming out of the negative headlines it seems:

Today, a FPÖ-MP sent a letter to the Catholic Vienna Archbishop Schönborn and heavily attacked him from calling Rosenkranz unelectable for President. He said that Schönborn shouldn`t meddle with politics because of the separation of church and state and should rather focus on the current problems within the Catholic church.

Well, this letter by the FPÖ-MP certainly won`t drive the large masses of Catholic-ÖVP-voting people into the Rosenkranz camp ...

[Tender Branson]

The pollster OGM has asked the following for "News":

"Do you think that the recent comments from Rosenkranz about distancing herself from the Nazi crimes and the keeping of the Verbotsgesetz are trustworthy ?"

Not trustworthy: 66%
Trustworthy: 19%

FPÖ-voters:

Not trustworthy: 41%
Trustworthy: 38%

ÖVP-voters:

Not trustworthy: 75%
Trustworthy: 12%

http://www.news.at/articles/1010/13/264010/kein-vertrauen-barbara-rosenkranz-66-prozent-sie-nicht

[Tender Branson]

No new polls out, except a new trust index by OGM:

President Heinz Fischer: 76% trust, 18% no trust
Barbara Rosenkranz: 13% trust, 61% no trust

http://www.ogm.at/pdfs/BP-Kandidaten_Maerz10.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Amusing side fact that has nothing to do with the Presidency:

Hans-Peter Martin, Independent Austrian Member of the EU Parliament was invited to an ATV debate about the influence of the Kronen Zeitung in Austria`s politics. He said that he was appalled that the Kronen Zeitung backed Rosenkranz for President.

When a "Standard" journalist just next to Martin was interviewed right after the show and said that Martin was pissed that the Kronen Zeitung was backing Rosenkranz for President and not Martin for President, he shouted into the camera: " F**k You !"



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FiwhUpvoeIY

[Tender Branson]

Doesn't the Kronen Zeitung own Martin?

Yeah, during the 2006 parliamentary elections and the 2009 EU elections he frequently wrote editorials in the "Kronen Zeitung", but he has not appeared there now for several months.

[Tender Branson]

Whoa, Le Pen might actually have a race with Rosenkranz !

New Gallup/Ö24 poll (800 Austrians aged 16+ questioned this week):

Fischer: 84% (+5)
Rosenkranz: 16% (-5)

"Do you think that Rosenkranz shares Nazi-ideology ?"

63% Yes
20% No

Under-30 year olds: 76%
Seniors: 72%
FPÖ-voters: 36%

"For you personally, is Rosenkranz electable?"

20% Yes
72% No

ÖVP-voters: 18% Yes
FPÖ-voters: 64% Yes, 29% No

...

That is pretty obvious now, my parents (also FPÖ-voters) will NOT vote for Rosenkranz (my dad even says Fischer has done a good job (Rosenkranz is too radical for them) and many young (Strache)-voters will also not back her. I guess my parents will just stay at home this time and sit this out and I will go and vote for Fischer.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Rosenkranz-faellt-unter-20--Marke-0663956.ece

[Tender Branson]

New Profil/Karmasin federal poll:

SPÖ: 33%
ÖVP: 32%
FPÖ: 20%
Greens: 11%
BZÖ: 2%
Others: 2%

This is the first time since about 1 year that the Social Democrats have overtaken the Conservatives. Probably has to do with the Chancellor Faymann proposed bank-tax and with the dilettantish behaviour of Interior Minister Maria Fekter of the ÖVP who wanted to plant an asylum centre into the state of Burgenland just prior to state elections where the SPÖ is now heavily favored (or always has been).

Direct vote for Chancellor:

Josef Pröll (ÖVP): 27%
Werner Faymann (SPÖ): 25%
Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ): 8%
Eva Glawischnig (Greens): 7%

"Do you think that the presidential candidacy of Barbara Rosenkranz (FPÖ) will hurt FPÖ-leader Strache in the October Vienna state elections ?"

37% Yes
14% No
25% Will have no impact
24% Undecided

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100313_OTS0008/profil-umfrage-spoe-ueberholt-oevp-proell-weiterhin-vor-faymann/channel/medien

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100313_OTS0011/profil-mehrheit-glaubt-rosenkranz-kandidatur-schade-fpoe-chef-strache

[Tender Branson]

It looks like Rosenkranz attended a 1991 Neo-Nazi meeting in France:

Someone has apparently found her in a Documentary ("Wahrheit macht Frei") about Neonazis, listening and laughing to Holocaust-denier David Irving's speeches about the existence of gas chambers.

The article says that the clip is now forensicly examined to prove its really her.

If true and pressured about it, hopefully this will be the end of her campaign.

http://de.indymedia.org/2010/03/275586.shtml

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypXBz61I6_4

[Tender Branson]

The latest Gallup/Ö24 poll is similar to the Karmasin/Profil poll:

SPÖ: 32% (+2)
ÖVP: 32% (-1)
FPÖ: 20% (-2)
Greens: 12% (+1)
BZÖ: 2% (nc)
Others: 2% (nc)

Direct vote for Chancellor:

Josef Pröll (ÖVP): 38% (-1)
Werner Faymann (SPÖ): 36% (+1)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100313_OTS0018/oesterreich-spoe-und-oevp-in-umfrage-kopf-an-kopf

[Tender Branson]

Today, town-council and mayoral elections will be held in Lower Austria, Tyrol and Vorarlberg.

The 2004/2005 elections in these states were very favorable to the ÖVP, they got about 55% of all mandates in Lower Austria and 63% in Tyrol. Basically 70-90% of all mayors are from the ÖVP.

Here`s a list of how many people are eligible to vote (all Austrian citizens aged 16+ are allowed to vote and also all EU-citizens with main residence in one of the states):

Lower Austria: 1.458.779
Tyrol: 462.821
Vorarlberg: 275.905

Turnout should be around 75% in Lower Austria and Tyrol and 70% in Vorarlberg.

Just a few days ago, the SPÖVP government announced that it would raise taxes to balance the 4% budget-deficit by 2013. It will be interesting to see if SPÖVP will take a hit or not for these proposals.

[Tender Branson]

Vorarlberg is almost fully counted and the ÖVP is still dominating there with slight increases. Also, the FPÖ is gaining some ground compared with 2005. The mainly bad elections for the FPÖ were the mayor of Lustenau, a city which had only FPÖ mayors since 1960. This time it was won by the ÖVP guy. They also lost the mayor of Mittelberg to the ÖVP. The FPÖ-candidate there crashed from 56% to 31%.

In Tyrol, the FPÖ also gained some ground and won a mayoral election in East Tyrol. Another strange thing happened in the city of Sellrain, where the SPÖ candidate ran against his son, who ran on an independent list. Both of them lost and the winner was the incumbent ÖVP mayor ...

On the other hand, Tyrol and Vorarlberg are not important.

The really important state today is only Lower Austria, the home state of Barbara Rosenkranz who is FPÖ-leader there and top candidate for the FPÖ there.

The polls there close in 15 minutes and then we can see how the FPÖ does compared with 2005.

[Tender Branson]

First trends from Lower Austria:

ÖVP: Strong gains
SPÖ: Strong losses
FPÖ: moderate gains
Greens: more or less like 2005

[Tender Branson]

Harmannsdorf (hometown of Barbara Rosenkranz)

ÖVP: 55.4% (-5.1%)
SPÖ: 31.2% (-1.6%)
FPÖ: 13.4% (+6.7%)

[Tender Branson]

The newspapers are already up with headlines like "SPÖ losing stretch continues" and so on.

Well, they are correct.

The SPÖ has lost strongly with the bigger cities (10.000 people+) now coming in.

In Wr. Neustadt, where Fezzy is studying, they lost about 15% and the FPÖ is gaining strongly in cities like Bad Vöslau, where a mosque was recently opened.

The ÖVP and FPÖ in general had a good day in all 3 states, the SPÖ has also terrible losses in Tyrol and Vorarlberg, where they now only have 1 (!!!) mayor in 98 cities.

Don`t know how the media will spin this on President Fischer`s reelection chances, but not good news for him and for the SPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

If the last time these seats were contested was 2005 (though I might be misreading), then SPÖ losses can't be viewed as at all surprising as they were in opposition then and lead the government now.

Well, on the other hand all 3 states are ÖVP strongholds and in all 3 of them the ÖVP had landslide victories at more than 50% in the last state elections. Municipial elections are more influenced by the state governments than the federal government, but even more so they are completely candidate based. And if the ÖVP had 70-90% of mayors in the previous elections and (historically) people are satisfied with their mayors, then it`s very uncommon that the SPÖ can improve their ground. The results of yesterday are just a continuation of the Lower Austrian state elections 2 years ago and are very similar to them.

BTW, here`s the final result of Lower Austria:



Turnout was 72% (+0.5%)

Also, strong losses for the SPÖ in Tyrol and Vorarlberg, where turnout was 74% and 63%.

Here`s the final result of Vorarlberg:

[Tender Branson]

Latest OGM/News poll:

Fischer: 81% (-3)
Rosenkranz: 19% (+3)

ÖVP Voters: Fischer 81%, Rosenkranz 19%
Young voters (16-29): Fischer 87%, Rosenkranz 13%

Projected turnout: 54% (would be the lowest ever, minus 18% compared with 2004)

[Tender Branson]

Seems like we are getting a 3rd candidate for President:

Rudolf Gehring, head of the Fundie CPÖ (Christian Party of Austria), has already more than 4000 of the 6000 signatures that are needed to be on the April 25 ballot. He might turn out to be a protest candidate, because if ÖVP voters really go to the polls and see the names Fischer (liberal Socialist) and Rosenkranz (hard-core rightwinger/Nazi) on the ballot and then a guy from the Christian Party, then they might vote for him instead of voting blank. I could see him getting 5-10%.

Unsurprisingly, Fischer and Rosenkranz have already finished their collecting of signatures but mentioned no total number so far. In the 3 weeks, Fischer collected about 40.000 of them before the 2004 elections.