Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Devils30]

What do people think about the Virginia HoD? Some are saying GOP could win it back but looking at this chart it looks pretty bleak.

Only 3 Dems are in districts Biden won by less than 10% and all of these 3 were at least Biden +5.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1838276900

[Devils30]

The old map was great for the GOP in maximizing its numbers in 2011-13 but it's now a pretty fair map as NoVA's realignment made formerly Lean R seats into safe/likely D.

[Devils30]

Trump is really trying his best to make sure McAuliffe wins this race lol.

https://twitter.com/andrewsolender/status/1414678429178421253?s=21

I think part of it is that people are giving the Virginia GOP credit because for once, they didn't nominate the most outwardly crazy candidate (Chase).

Gillespie wasn't an outwardly crazy candidate, neither was Gade.

Why would I not be shocked if McAuliffe won by 11 after Trump visits and Dems go from 55-45 to 57-43 in the HoD.

[Devils30]

Are some exaggerating the idea Dems need +6% to win the House of Delegates? Biden won 52 districts by 10% or more. Yes this map was a GOP gerrymander but the coalition it was drawn for is completely broken.

[Devils30]

The GOP's performance in SoCal was very bad for their chances of taking back the HoD in Virginia. If Dems are winning Orange County, they're probably doing well enough to hold at least the 52 seats that were Biden+10 or more.

[Devils30]

It's really hard to square the CA recall numbers in Orange County with the idea that Youngkin is close enough in NoVA to make this a real race.

[Devils30]

TMac's numbers with white college grads in polling suggest this is still very much an uphill battle for Rs

[Devils30]

Is this election really as close as it's "cracked out" to be?

MSM is now making this like a horserace election, but my question would be why unless DEM TO sinks dramatically or massive swings in the Deep DEM 'Burbs of Metro DC, and lesser extent Richmond, plus major shifts in Tidewater.

Ideas Atlas Hive?

VA elections have always been overhyped by the MSM, but I would be surprised if this turned into a "2017 redux," and I think Republicans should be concerned if McAuliffe wins by the same margin as Northam.

I’m not a fan of concepts like "redux," but the closest analogies I can think of here are IA-GOV/OH-GOV 2018 — the race ends up at something close to a McAuliffe +4 win, which would also be in line with the CA swing from 2020. Republicans put up a decent candidate with fairly good messenging, the environment is somewhat favorable to them (even if not massively so), but the state is too far gone at that point.

McAuliffe and Murphy both winning in a blowout close to the 2020 result would indicate that the R brand is toxic enough to sink even generic/"inoffensive" Republicans (conservative =/= offensive!) in non-federal races and trump (no pun intended) local issues, and at that point the GOP should worry about implications for 2022. They absolutely don’t need to win states like VA or NJ just like Democrats didn’t need IA or OH for a wave, but if they can’t even achieve a moderate swing from 2020, something is obviously wrong.

Using the election shuffler, giving TMac Northam like margins in NoVA, Richmond and Youngkin Trump ones in rural areas only gets Rs from -10 to around -7/-7.5. To actually win the state Youngkin needs to at minimum cut these suburbs to Romney type numbers and even then it's 50/50 at best. As long as polls show Dems up with white college, be skeptical this is a real tossup.

[Devils30]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrsts-virginia-governor/2021/09/29/47f3099a-2135-11ec-9309-b743b79abc59_story.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wp_politics

Time to wet the bed some more.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/christinafreund/status/1443343610838142980?s=20

Big Youngkin momentum!

Yuck. This makes me trust T Mac even less. If a CoC isn't all in for the Republican, something is very amiss in the Democratic party.

Why can't you just accept the Republican Party is alienating people?

Are they? Because polls show a close race here. The GOP losing CoC types but picking up blue collar minorities is not a trade I'd want to make, and right now that looks like the most likely outcome.

Might not be a big deal in upper middle class Virginia, but it would be devastating for what's left of the Midwest, and would dash any hopes of a blue Texas.

Youngkin has had like 3% black support in most of the polls and Latino support seems about on the same level as 2016/2020, so not sure where you're getting that impression in VA at least.

I hope you are correct. Polls have shown Biden's approval taking a huge hit among unvaccinated minorities and with vaccines such a big part of political discourse these days, that is problematic.

Also, while I have said myself it's not the same thing, 20% of Black California voters and over 40% of Latino California voters said yes on the recall.

No they didn't, actual results by precinct show very little GOP improvement with AA's and urban Hispanics.

[Devils30]

apparently terry mcaulife had some gaffe tonight where he said he doesn't want parents being involved in decisions schools make or something.

Ehh I think VA has become about as blue as IA has become red

This is T-Mac's "hell yes" moment, but likely won't be as consequential.

This will affect McAuliffe as much as Soybeangate affected Ernst last year.

I hope you're right, but Iowa's a lot more Republican than Virginia is Democratic, and the polarization is asymmetric.

That probably will be true in 2022, but in 2020 and 2018 Virginia was way more Democratic than Iowa was Republican.

No it wasn't.

Iowa at Trump +8.2 while the popular vote was Biden +4.45 was 12.65% more R than the country.

Virginia at Biden +10.1 was 5.65% more D than the country.

[Devils30]

If Trumpkin wins the HOD absolutely flips but I doubt it would end up 60 40 GOP. More like 54 to 46 or 55 to 45.

The current HoD is a pretty fair map. The GOP gerrymander in 2011 is for a coalition that no longer exists.

[Devils30]

I personally believe that panic is the best motivator in political campaigns, whether a campaign is in trouble or not. Even if this only serves to energize turnout and fundraising to pad McAuliffe's, and maybe the other statewide candidates' margins, I think it's still worth it. I don't think there's a downside.

Biden won by over 10% in 52 of the Dems 55 current seats in the HoD. Only 12, 75, 91  were below 10% and all 3 went to Clinton in 2016. The Rs will have to flip a couple Biden +11 seats while holding open ones like Kirk Cox's seat.

[Devils30]

I personally believe that panic is the best motivator in political campaigns, whether a campaign is in trouble or not. Even if this only serves to energize turnout and fundraising to pad McAuliffe's, and maybe the other statewide candidates' margins, I think it's still worth it. I don't think there's a downside.

Biden won by over 10% in 52 of the Dems 55 current seats in the HoD. Only 12, 75, 91  were below 10% and all 3 went to Clinton in 2016. The Rs will have to flip a couple Biden +11 seats while holding open ones like Kirk Cox's seat.

FWIW, there are currently six Republican delegates from Biden seats. Chaz Nuttycombe has four of those seats as Likely or Safe R - Kirk Cox's open seat is a Tossup and another seat in Chesterfield is Tilt R.

Meanwhile, he's got six Dem-held seats as tossups, two as Tilt D, and two more as Lean D, and all of those seats were won by Biden.

A lot just depends on what the top of the ticket is. A 2017 style polling error could keep Dems at -2 to +2 depending on local districts while accurate polls probably are -3 to -6.

[Devils30]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidMDrucker/status/1447677488159731720

The GOP is setting itself for major disappointment. I'm curious....what poll has shown a substantial change in this race the past few months?

[Devils30]

If you were Youngkin you really want to see more crossover from 2020 in these polls. Maybe they have something internally but being down 3 in a Biden +2 sample isn't really confidence inspiring. This electorate even with a Dem dropoff is unlikely to be below Biden +7-8.

[Devils30]

People said early CA numbers were horrendous, then polls started to catch up a bit as pollsters realized it wasnt going to be the ultra low 2010 turnout they predicted. VA has no pre-2020 mail or early vote history, we need to wait and see. Not everyone is eager to vote 5 weeks before the election this year like 2020. There's a reason pre-2020 late ballots in CA AZ tended to be more Dem.

[Devils30]

People said early CA numbers were horrendous, then polls started to catch up a bit as pollsters realized it wasnt going to be the ultra low 2010 turnout they predicted. VA has no pre-2020 mail or early vote history, we need to wait and see. Not everyone is eager to vote 5 weeks before the election this year like 2020. There's a reason pre-2020 late ballots in CA AZ tended to be more Dem.

And oddly enough it's mostly the same posters who got the CA recall so wrong who are now spamming this incorrect info on early voting in every VA thread...

You also have white voter numbers in the polls that indicate very little chance for GOP.

[Devils30]

Turnout of course will be well down from 2020 but I am looking at it as a % compared to what 2017 was to 2016. In 2017 it was 65.6% of 2016's total vote.

If this holds in 2021 we would get a total vote of around 2.9 million or so.

[Devils30]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/terry-mcauliffe-is-misreading-what-matters-to-virginia-voters

Youngkin is gonna win because of the real Virginians in Buchanan, Russell, Frederick counties. Who cares if he loses Fairfax by 38%, the real Virginians will just turn out too much.

[Devils30]

Can we all just accept there is a lot we don't know? It is the first post Trump-era large state election and one that did underestimate Dems in 2017 (albeit it did the same to GOP in 2013). Until we get actual numbers it is difficult to make predictions about 2022. So far special elections this year have shown little crossover from 2020 but these are small ones with low turnout. Accept the unknown and wait for the data in 13 days.

[Devils30]

The only way Youngkin wins is if turnout is low enough among Democrats. Fortunately for him, that might well happen.

Turnout (Voted by mail, ballot app, early vote)

10th district (Dem) = 88,533
9th district (GOP) = 45,798

Well yeah it looks great for the Dems when you compare a hugely overpopulated, growing district, with an underpopulated, shrinking district. You could also look at turnout like this:

3rd district (Dem) = 55,933
1st district (GOP) = 81,743

And how much of the 1st is from now overpopulated Prince William? I would be careful looking at early vote numbers because VA's history is very short for non-election day voting. Some 2020 mail voters have traditionally voted E-day and appear to be returning to it.

[Devils30]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BrentScher/status/1452652366168268809

She sounds like a very impressive women and it's too bad that she is not at the top of the Republican ticket.

I could easily see someone like her giving terry mcauliffe and Dems a much tougher challenge had the Republicans actually picked her as their nominee

fortunately for the Dems republican voters would still much rather choose candidates like Larry elders or Marjorie Taylor Greene over someone like Winsome Sears

Sears might be the top vote getter on the GOP ticket. I would bet on Dems going Herring, TMac, Ayala in that order.

[Devils30]

https://www.rawstory.com/trump-virginia-2655412186/

Let's hope it happens! Hard to see any better gift to TMac.

[Devils30]

The real question now is whether Chesterfield County flips to the Traitors or not.

A 2% Youngkin win in Chesterfield won't be nearly enough for the GOP