Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[SCNCmod]

I am certainly no Harris fan... And I think there should be not only a new election... and probably even a new primary.  But do ppl really think Harris knew there was outright fraud going on? (vs thinking maybe that this Bladen Co guy was just aggressive at getting ppl to early vote or something?).

I'm asking b/c I genuinely have no idea regarding the likelihood that Harris knew about the actual Fraud type stuff or not.  In one since I just can't imagine anyone would be so reckless (& not think there was a decent likelihood of getting caught (especially since Harris has to know how odd the numbers would look... since he was on the losing side of this scheme in 2016 (I think).  and he had to think things look fishy in 2016 primary. 

Is it possible that in 2016 he just thought this guy was a pushy salesman type person who legally hustled absentee votes... and so this election he hired him so he would be on the losing end of the absentee battle.... Or did he really know that the votes were being manipulated illegally?  (honest thought... not just knee jerk lock him up... or knee jerk he's innocent)

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I'm sure Jesus told him to rig the election. So glad to see this homophobe go down in flames, and hopefully prison. Time to add NC-09 to the Blue Wall as soon as a new election is called for, which brings us to a grand total of 41 seats.

[new_patomic]

I am certainly no Harris fan... And I think there should be not only a new election... and probably even a new primary.  But do ppl really think Harris knew there was outright fraud going on? (vs thinking maybe that this Bladen Co guy was just aggressive at getting ppl to early vote or something?).

I'm asking b/c I genuinely have no idea regarding the likelihood that Harris knew about the actual Fraud type stuff or not.  In one since I just can't imagine anyone would be so reckless (& not think there was a decent likelihood of getting caught (especially since Harris has to know how odd the numbers would look... since he was on the losing side of this scheme in 2016 (I think).  and he had to think things look fishy in 2016 primary. 

Is it possible that in 2016 he just thought this guy was a pushy salesman type person who legally hustled absentee votes... and so this election he hired him so he would be on the losing end of the absentee battle.... Or did he really know that the votes were being manipulated illegally?  (honest thought... not just knee jerk lock him up... or knee jerk he's innocent)

We don't know.

But it's definitely a question now, whereas previously there wasn't any real evidence or suggestion that he might have been aware of McCrae Dowless' actions.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Why doesn't the North Carolina legislature just pass a bill declaring Harris the winner?

That sounds like when Florida was the first state to formally choose its electors in the 2000 election.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Why doesn't the North Carolina legislature just pass a bill declaring Harris the winner?

That sounds like when Florida was the first state to formally choose its electors in the 2000 election.

Plus, does anyone think for a second the Democratic congress would seat him in that scenario? No way.

[DrScholl]

It's not entirely clear if Harris knew exactly what was happening, but it wouldn't be surprising if he knew. He is an extremely fanatical Christian and some of these people feel as if they have a religious right to do whatever they need to do to achieve their goals.

[jimrtex]

Do we think the large number of returned ballots means someone was filling requests out en masse from the voter rolls?

There are bunches of ballot requests that were turned in en masse. Some have the names printed in. Others appear to have been hand-written by the same person (though some managed to use three different styles of "2" in an address.

But they are signed and dated. The signatures have been redacted, but the black boxes are quite varying in size, and the style and shape of the dates is quite variable.

The application form has check boxes for requesting a primary ballot. North Carolina permits unaffiliated voters to choose a party ballot. This was not a primary election, so the boxes were irrelevant, but there would be bunches in a row with Democratic selected. On some batches, there would be crude X'es in a shaky hand. On  others, the box was checked with a very distinct style, with the long tail of the check extending way outside the box. They had to have been marked by the same person. Either they had been pre-marked to indicate the the voter was a Democrat, or they were marked with a flourish to indicate that the runner can be trusted.

North Carolina has partisan registration, and also records the race of the voter. If you were working for McCready it would quite normal to get every black voter in the county to vote (and remember North Carolina permits registration during early voting). The best option is to get them to vote absentee, because the voting has to be witnessed by two persons.

So the volunteers go to a voter's home with a pre-filled application for an absentee ballot. They ask if the voter wants to vote in the upcoming election. The voter assures them that they do want to vote. The volunteers don't have to tell the voter of the other options such as voting early or on election day. North Carolina does not require a reason to vote absentee. So the have the voter fill in the application, and the volunteer takes it to the county elections office.

A few days later, the volunteers go back to "check" to make sure the voter received her ballot. It may be a hassle to get two witnesses. If it is a married couple, they still need another witness, and maybe they don''t want to have a neighbor watch them vote, or the daughter only comes up from Wilmington or Raleigh or Charlotte every few weeks. If the voter lives alone, it is even harder.

The voter tells them she has it here somewhere, and finds it. Or maybe she set it aside because the volunteers assured her they would help her vote. "You know it requires two witnesses." We can do that, and oh by the way here is a sample ballot, you can use." The witnesses are supposed to ensure that the ballot is secret, but also to make sure that it is the voter who is marking the ballot.

"OK, Now. Put it in the the envelope and sign it. And we'll sign as witnesses. Now you have mail it. I think I do have a stamp" (makes a show of looking for a stamp) "I guess not. I'll tell you what. I'll drop it off at the post office for you. Save you the trip."

Incidentally, in Texas, Democrats were extremely opposed to putting numeric limits on how many ballots a non-related person may possess. Apparently, some young Democratic runners were especially thoughtful about their neighbors, and carrying dozens of ballots.

If you can't get the voter to vote absentee, then you try to get him to vote early, offering rides, etc. Block walking is not for the purpose of convincing voters or arguing policy. It is to identify supporters and make sure that they vote. During early voting, you can check whether they have voted, and phone a reminder before the last day of early voting. If they have Sunday early voting, you run 'Souls to the Polls' with church buses leading a caravan of parishioners to the voting location.

Finally, you make an effort to get them to vote on election day, calling back around noon nd three P.M.

Some of the absentee requests were from out of state. One was from Gainesville, Florida, so presumably from UF. They e-mailed a PDF. If they got the ballot, they probably voted. Someone who had been handed an application, and all they had to do was sign it and hand it back, is less likely to actually vote when they do receive their ballot. Maybe nobody came back to help them vote. Maybe they put the ballot under a pizza box, with a pile of laundry on top.

[cg41386]

It's not entirely clear if Harris knew exactly what was happening, but it wouldn't be surprising if he knew. He is an extremely fanatical Christian and some of these people feel as if they have a religious right to do whatever they need to do to achieve their goals.

I believe Harris is/was Dowless’s pastor, fwiw.

[TomC]

Jimrtex- I’m loving your narrative technique: Pizza box under laundry? Goldmine! In earlier posts the down South repartee! LOL, man!

[Person Man]

It's not entirely clear if Harris knew exactly what was happening, but it wouldn't be surprising if he knew. He is an extremely fanatical Christian and some of these people feel as if they have a religious right to do whatever they need to do to achieve their goals.

I believe Harris is/was Dowless’s pastor, fwiw.

He should of known. That's what matters. You still cant sell alcohol to 20 year olds because they have fake ids and say you didn't know.

[Mr. Illini]

Lol Dowless actually signed all of the absentee votes as himself? Is he trying to go to prison?

[Gass3268]

Why doesn't the North Carolina legislature just pass a bill declaring Harris the winner?

Pelosi would refuse to seat him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Charlotte Observer calls for a new election

[Brittain33]

I'm sure Jesus told him to rig the election.

We're two weeks away from hearing he was banned from the mall.

[pppolitics]

It's not entirely clear if Harris knew exactly what was happening, but it wouldn't be surprising if he knew. He is an extremely fanatical Christian and some of these people feel as if they have a religious right to do whatever they need to do to achieve their goals.

I believe Harris is/was Dowless’s pastor, fwiw.

He should of known. That's what matters. You still cant sell alcohol to 20 year olds because they have fake ids and say you didn't know.

My local liquor stores don't give a ****.

They know that most of their customers are University students who aren't 21.

[jimrtex]

Why do you keep bringing up different data and not responding to the data I and others bring up? You implied Harris’ 61% in absentee was in line with his ED vote in Bladen. Do you now see it’s a red flag?

The reason why is that I am capable of looking at data and making an independent conclusion.

Others (perhaps including you) have certain prejudices. You hear that the Republicans committed vote fraud. You think, "I knew that". You are shown some evidence that supposedly supports your conclusion, and simply keep repeating it. You are like a student who keeps giving the teacher the answer they expect, rather than critically thinking.

Imagine you are asked how Nonesuch County will vote. You ask about the percentage of black population. Whether it is urban, suburban, or rural. Manufacturing, white collar, age profile. Etc. You eventually make an estimate even though Nonesuch County does not exist.

But now you are asked about the absentee vote. You instantly reply 60% Democratic. But don't you to need to know anything about the county? Not at all. It's 60%. If not it is fraud.

In Texas, absentee voting is invariable more Republican, but there is also a relationship to the in person voting. This year, in the various congressional districts, in-person and absentee voting was

60% (in person) 68% (absentee)
60% 66%
59% 61%
53% 58%
50% 56%
48% 51%
23% 29%

See the pattern?

absentee_i > inperson_i

inperson_i > inperson_j implies absentee_i > absentee_j

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In Bladen County, the Republican congressional candidates got 6.6% of their total votes from absentee ballots, compared to 6.7% for the Democrats.

(You probably didn't know that Kyle Horton got 87% of the vote in NC-7 in Bladen County did you?)

Both are relatively high (I think there may only be one county with a higher percentage for Democrats - Yancey). In many areas of the state, the percentage of absentee ballots was one or two percent. But also remember that the top of the ballot race this year was the congressional race, whose competitiveness varied by district. No reason to make much effort if there were no competitive races. The Democratic effort appeared to a bit stronger in urban areas, where the GOTV was more intense, and campaigns could spend more money.

Perhaps Bladen has a highly engaged electorate. Maybe it is highly competitive, and the absentee GOTV effort has developed. Maybe there are effects from Hurricane Florence which dumped 3-feet of rain on Elizabethtown in mid-September. How many homes where absentee ballots were sent are not habitable, or the ballot was washed away.

[Brittain33]

Why do you keep bringing up different data and not responding to the data I and others bring up? You implied Harris’ 61% in absentee was in line with his ED vote in Bladen. Do you now see it’s a red flag?

The reason why is that I am capable of looking at data and making an independent conclusion.

Others (perhaps including you) have certain prejudices.

You should consider a third category here besides 1) election data and 2) personal prejudices. The third category is artifacts from the reporting and incipient criminal case here which is being heavily investigated and reported on and which led the bi-partisan board of elections to refuse to certify the election.

You haven't made the argument for throwing all of that out and only considering speculative and possibly tendentious interpretations of data in order to reach a conclusion. And it looks like you're choosing not to engage with what's being reported or investigated, and that's confusing.

[Nyvin]

Why do you keep bringing up different data and not responding to the data I and others bring up? You implied Harris’ 61% in absentee was in line with his ED vote in Bladen. Do you now see it’s a red flag?

The reason why is that I am capable of looking at data and making an independent conclusion.

Others (perhaps including you) have certain prejudices. You hear that the Republicans committed vote fraud. You think, "I knew that". You are shown some evidence that supposedly supports your conclusion, and simply keep repeating it. You are like a student who keeps giving the teacher the answer they expect, rather than critically thinking.

You're not short of "certain prejeduces" don't worry.

[Wiz in Wis]

Hey jimrtex... it appears that among the rubes thinking that there is GOP fraud sits... the head of the North Carolina GOP.

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1070707900576882688

[DINGO Joe]

^^^^^^^^^^^^
Core is rotten

[lfromnj]

Hey jimrtex... it appears that among the rubes thinking that there is GOP fraud sits... the head of the North Carolina GOP.

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1070707900576882688

bagel
The head of the NC GOP is clearly a democratic hack and plant.
Bagel is seriously starting to piss me of on this subject .

[Landslide Lyndon]

Hey jimrtex... it appears that among the rubes thinking that there is GOP fraud sits... the head of the North Carolina GOP.

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1070707900576882688

Strong words from a guy whose party doesn't give a sh**t about democracy and the will of the people.

[Storr]

Hey jimrtex... it appears that among the rubes thinking that there is GOP fraud sits... the head of the North Carolina GOP.

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1070707900576882688

Strong words from a guy whose party doesn't give a sh**t about democracy and the will of the people.

I think this is about the NC GOP realizing there's a big difference in the mind of voters from being the party of shady late night bill passage/power grabs/jostling for power against the "liberals" vs. the party of blatant voter fraud. The wider NC GOP doesn't want what happened in Bladen County to taint the state Party. "Being open" to a new election seems to me, to be part of limiting the damage of the voter fraud scandal.

[jimrtex]

NC-9 scandal: More than a thousand absentee ballots possibly destroyed

https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2018/12/05/lead-drew-griffin-dnt-live-jake-tapper.cnn

These scum were filling out ballots for literal blind people. Gee wonder if that is legal!

Interestingly, the letter shown by CNN specifically mentioned the Bladen County Public Improvement PAC, but then zoomed in on the next sentence about McRae Dowless. Beginning the sentence with an ellipsis ...

You may remember reading that in the 2016 it was noticed that dozens of ballots had "Franklin Graham" written-in in a way down ballot race (29th race on the ballot, the only non-partisan race on the ballot, and with only one on-ballot candidate). Horace Munn, the leader of the PAC said at that time that maybe his runners had helped write in the name, even if they didn't do the bubbles, but didn't realize they had to sign the ballot envelope as an assistant in addition to the envelope.

The two voters interviewed by CNN were Audrey Atkinson (not Aubrey Atkinson as CNN misspelled it) said that he couldn't read and write - and CNN had to humiliate him by making him admit it on national TV. The other was Lacy Allison, who couldn't remember if he voted for "Harris" or "McCready", though he said the names sounded familiar. He is a registered Republican.

[TomC]

Why do you keep bringing up different data and not responding to the data I and others bring up? You implied Harris’ 61% in absentee was in line with his ED vote in Bladen. Do you now see it’s a red flag?

The reason why is that I am capable of looking at data and making an independent conclusion.

Others (perhaps including you) have certain prejudices.

You should consider a third category here besides 1) election data and 2) personal prejudices. The third category is artifacts from the reporting and incipient criminal case here which is being heavily investigated and reported on and which led the bi-partisan board of elections to refuse to certify the election.

You haven't made the argument for throwing all of that out and only considering speculative and possibly tendentious interpretations of data in order to reach a conclusion. And it looks like you're choosing not to engage with what's being reported or investigated, and that's confusing.

This exactly. You aren’t overtly rebutting anyone or stating conclusions. You’re just trying to distract from data that is a pretty stark outlier by throwing a bunch of other data without openly analyzing it. Then you tell hypothetical stories that have no basis in data analysis. Cute but meatless.

I’m done.