Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[TomC]

Do we think the large number of returned ballots means someone was filling requests out en masse from the voter rolls?

[lfromnj]

Anyway its incredible how one man is doing all the investigative reporting for us


Thanks a lot to Joe Bruno. Bigger companies should take a look at him.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1070472541209272320

[jimrtex]

Harris supposedly got 96% of the absentee vote by mail in Bladen County. What is the precedent for scoring in the high 90s in absentee vote in a county that is roughly evenly split in a race that is roughly evenly split?



I'll take my answer off the air.

"There are people who are registered Democrats in the South who don't always vote for Democrats" is not a meaningful reply.

Huh? You are mixing things up.

Absentee Vote: Harris 61%, McCready 38%, Libertarian 1%
Election Day: Harris 59%, McCready 39%, Libertarian 2%
Early Voting: Harris 56%, McCready 43%, Libertarian 1%.

Note that the Early Voting location is in Elizabethtown, which is more Democratic than the district as a whole. While anyone in the county may drive to to the Elizabethtown it is less convenient. If one compares the election day turnout to population, that for Elizabethtown is depressed. One can drive or walk over to the library any day for about two weeks and vote, or wait until a particular Tuesday. Ealy voting cannibalizes election day voting.

The absentee voting is representative of the in person voting.

Are you confusing NC-7 with NC-9?

He’s talking about the primary, for which Dowless was also employed by Harris. See the image above?

Harris got 437 to 17. In no way is that representative of normal. And recall the candidate who got 17 votes was a sitting Congressman.

To add



Is the graphic that shows why the 61% figure in the general is an outlier.

For in-person voting, McCready got 53% of the vote in Mecklenburg County, but only 38% in Union County.

Why the 15% difference? I would attribute it to demographic differences. What is your theory?

But in the absentee vote there was only a 4% difference 65% to 61%? How do you explain that?

[pppolitics]

Joe Bruno is on MSNBC right now

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1070462687983882241

[TomC]

Why do you keep bringing up different data and not responding to the data I and others bring up? You implied Harris’ 61% in absentee was in line with his ED vote in Bladen. Do you now see it’s a red flag?

Mecklenburg is more urban and less white. Absentee votes are smaller samples and I guess, without a huge absentee effort like we see in Bladen and Robeson, tend to be a more distinct type of voter and use absentee as intended. Young people away at college/in military, elderly with concerns about health care, not sure, but not as diverse a population as those who vote in person. It’s clear absentee is more Democratic than Republican. Except in Bladen. Why is that? (I know but...) can you bring yourself to say it?

ETA: with a higher ED % in Mecklenburg it’s going to be harder to replicate the same margin. Union is whiter and the absentee return rates is higher, that’s going to help the Republican’s margin,

[lfromnj]

Joe Bruno is on MSNBC right now

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1070462687983882241

FF
He should be hired by one the big media groups
He has done incredible work with all his investigative reporting for this event all by himself.

[SCNCmod]

It absolutely amazes me that there are ppl who are still trying to explain away all of the data from NC-9.   (On top of the data being proof itself- esp when you also look at the 2016 and 2018 Primaries... there are also the affidavits from those paid to collect these absentee ballots).

I mean at this point- does anyone really think they are going to convince anyone that there is nothing to see in NC-9?

[GeorgiaModerate]

It absolutely amazes me that there are ppl who are still trying to explain away all of the data from NC-9.   (On top of the data being proof itself- esp when you also look at the 2016 and 2018 Primaries... there are also the affidavits from those paid to collect these absentee ballots).

I mean at this point- does anyone really think they are going to convince anyone that there is nothing to see in NC-9?

They'll convince the hardcore Republican faithful.  Then if a new election is called and McCready wins it, they'll believe they were cheated, and outrage is a powerful motivator.

[The Mikado]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1070453129999736833

[Antonio the Sixth]

...it's happening.

[aaroncd107]

...it's happening.

what’s happening?

[Antonio the Sixth]

...it's happening.

what’s happening?

Read the post above. That sounds like a big deal to me.

[aaroncd107]

...it's happening.

what’s happening?

Read the post above. That sounds like a big deal to me.

Oh. Yeah... that’s not great for Harris. Taste of his own medicine ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[pppolitics]

CNN: More than a thousand absentee ballots possibly destroyed

[The Mikado]

CNN: More than a thousand absentee ballots possibly destroyed

Clearly, though, we should still seat Harris for...reasons.

Starting to think Harris is more likely to see the inside of an NC jail cell than the US Capitol.

[pppolitics]

NC-9 scandal: More than a thousand absentee ballots possibly destroyed

https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2018/12/05/lead-drew-griffin-dnt-live-jake-tapper.cnn

[adrac]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1070543855924244481

lmao

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1070543855924244481

lmao

Mark Harris for Prison!

[Ebsy]

NC-9 scandal: More than a thousand absentee ballots possibly destroyed

https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2018/12/05/lead-drew-griffin-dnt-live-jake-tapper.cnn

These scum were filling out ballots for literal blind people. Gee wonder if that is legal!

[Beet]

Why doesn't the North Carolina legislature just pass a bill declaring Harris the winner?

[pppolitics]

Lock Him Up!

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1070543855924244481

lmao

I really hope 538 adds the % prison chance to every candidates odds from now on.

[NewYorkExpress]

Do they have enough to indict Harris now?

I'd like Democrats to have ammo to be able to easily refuse to seat him when the new Congress convenes.

[adrac]

Do they have enough to indict Harris now?

I'd like Democrats to have ammo to be able to easily refuse to seat him when the new Congress convenes.

He can't get seated if his election is never certified.