Will a health care bill pass with a public option?

[East Coast Republican]

Ok we're all gonna quit messing around here and lay all the cards on the table.  In plain English:

DO YOU THINK THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION WILL SUCCEED IN PASSING HEALTH CARE REFORM WITH A PUBLIC OPTION?

No, don't say 'Uhh well yes in a couple of years.'  WRONG.  I want to know right here and now in the near future do you think it will pass with a public option or are his efforts for this option dead and will only tear his party apart?

[Smash255]

I think it will pass.  I think the administration and the Dems were a bit surprised about how much the GOP would lie and try to scare the hell out of the American people about it, they didn't prepare well enough to counteract it, but they seem to be finally stepping in the right direction on that regard.

[Franzl]

I doubt it.

[Frodo]

Yes -it's the only way it will ever pass. 

[anvi]

Well, I don't accept the premise of the question, namely that if a public option doesn't pass this fall, it will never pass. 

That being said, I think it's hard to see how a bill with a public option will pass this fall.  The current list of Senate Democrats and Independents who are weak on or against a public option now (copied from another recent thread) stands at:

Bayh
Conrad
Ben Nelson
Pryor
Landrieu
Baucus
Johnson
Feinstein
McCaskill
Begich
Lieberman,

That's eleven Senators whose votes cannot be counted on, leaving (maybe) 49) who support.  So unless the administration can win a few in their own party back, reconciliation would fail.  But even a reconciliation process assumes that the conferees would add back a public option if it failed the first vote in the Senate, and that's highly unlikely.   Without enough receivers downfield, I don't think it's worth throwing the hail mary at the end of the first quarter and risking a costly interception.

But, like I said, this doesn't imply anything about a public option being more feasible later.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

No