I feel like she'd have a better shot if she switched parties, hell even become independent and caucus with neither party.
Don't you have to caucus with one party for committee assignments? I was actually hoping she'd become an Indepdendent caucusing with the Democrats. However, if January 6 didn't convince her, probably nothing will.
One way or the other, ranked choice will most likely save her.
I was of this opinion too (that RCV would save her), but I'm starting to question it.
Ranked-choice voting doesn't simply have the effect of electing the consensus candidate, in the way that approval voting (or a variant of RCV where candidates got a descending number of "points" based on how they were ranked) does.
In other words, being everyone's 2nd choice doesn't help if you don't have enough first choice votes to remain in the race. Hypothetically, let's say most partisan GOPers rank Kelly as #1 and most partisan Dems rank Gross as #1. Murkowski, in 3rd, would be eliminated and her supporters' votes transferred to their second choice.
Now, what can save Murkowski is a) if enough partisan GOPers support her b/c she's the incumbent, b) strong turnout among independents, and/or (much less likely) c) if enough partisan Dems rank her as #1 b/c they're worried about the scenario I described above
I think she is still the favorite because A and B are both reasonably likely, but don't think this race is the slam dunk for her that most people seem to think it is. Definitely a world in which we end up with a crazy Trumper Senator out of Alaska come 2023 
Alaskan voters can and do see the same polls that we see, and voters generally are more sophisticated in their ability to vote tactically than we tend to give them credit for on this site. It's still over a year out, but barring a major change in the dynamics of the race, the narrative that the Democrat can't win will be spread widely. In that case, I expect to see mass tactical voting for Murkowski by Democrats just like in 2010; here the objective will be to get her into the final round, which she will win if she gets there. I personally don't see a Murkowski victory as a particularly worthwhile outcome, but if you think that she'd be a lot better than the alternative Republican then I don't think there's any reason for doom right now.
