Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Alben Barkley]

Will Mr. Trump endorse Abrams now?

Both have accused Kemp of rigging elections against them and refused to concede so…

[Buzz]

Burt Jones down to 50.08%

[Rookie Yinzer]

Will Mr. Trump endorse Abrams now?

Both have accused Kemp of rigging elections against them and refused to concede so…

Uh…. I hope you’re kidding because the two are not comparable at all…..

Concession and acknowledging that Brian Kemp was the legal victor are two different things. Stop.

[Canis]

Saagar from Breaking Points made a really interesting hypothesis on why Trump's endorsed candidates did so bad in GA last night compared to OH and PA. Essentially long-time conservative republican voters value Trump's endorsement much less than those who were Obama-Trump voters who only recently became republicans and younger republicans which there were much more of in OH and PA compared to GA which had much more lifelong republicans.

[2016]

Sabato has moved Georgia Governor to Lean R!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sabato has moved Georgia Governor to Lean R!

If only Sabato can move it to Lean D to boost Abrams chabces

[Adam Griffin]

Looks like we're on track for a 60% R, 40% D primary split. If the crossover share from EV holds for ED as well, we're basically looking at an effective turnout comparable to the EV distribution (56.5% R, 43.5% D).

Not great for Democrats, but not a death sentence, either: basically right on the mantle of feasibility for November (my internal tipping point was if the share of the electorate pulling GOP ballots was >61%, then it's over for Democrats in November).

Given the amount of crossover vote and the nonexistent races on the Dem side makes the comparisons moot, though.

My figures included the dynamic of crossover. If the actual electorate was 60% R, we'd probably be looking at a result closer to 2016 than 2020.

[Alben Barkley]

Will Mr. Trump endorse Abrams now?

Both have accused Kemp of rigging elections against them and refused to concede so…

Uh…. I hope you’re kidding because the two are not comparable at all…..

Concession and acknowledging that Brian Kemp was the legal victor are two different things. Stop.

Huh? Seems you're making my point for me. Even Trump has effectively acknowledged that Biden was the "legal victor" (when he said so on Twitter shortly after 1/6, and when he eventually did back down so Biden could take office), he just claims the law/vote was rigged against him and refuses to concede. Much as Abrams did. There is very little difference between the positions of the two, not kidding at all. I had problems with what she was doing even at the time and said on this very site shortly after the 2020 election that Abrams should apologize and concede in order to neutralize a "both sides" argument against her from the GOP. Especially considering what Kemp and Raffensperger were doing to protect democracy in their state despite all her incendiary claims that they had destroyed it and rigged it so that Democrats couldn't win. Claims that REALLY did not stand up to scrutiny when Georgia was the only Southern swing state Biden won despite being the last one many expected him to win, and was one of the few states in the whole country where the result aligned almost exactly with the polls.

[emailking]

Refusing to concede I think is extremely petty of both of them. Of course Trump's approach was extreme and far more dangerous, by firing up his supporters to stage an insurrection.

[Inmate Trump]

Refusing to concede I think is extremely petty of both of them. Of course Trump's approach was extreme and far more dangerous, by firing up his supporters to stage an insurrection.

Agreed. Abrams was wrong to refuse to concede. It reflects poorly on her, and she's going to lose in November (though I will be voting for her).

[President Johnson]

I wonder whether Geoff Duncan regrets not running for reelection? Given that even Raffensberger pulled it out and avoided a runoff, the guy could easily have won as well?

[Inmate Trump]

I wonder whether Geoff Duncan regrets not running for reelection? Given that even Raffensberger pulled it out and avoided a runoff, the guy could easily have won as well?

I feel almost certain he does regret it.

But there seems to be no love loss between him and other Republicans. I could see him supporting Biden (or another Dem) in 2024, if Trump is the nominee.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/TeamAbrams/status/1529829006077476865

[lfromnj]

I wonder whether Geoff Duncan regrets not running for reelection? Given that even Raffensberger pulled it out and avoided a runoff, the guy could easily have won as well?

Possibly but unlike Raffesenberger and Kemp who were still relatively conservative and just got stuck in a bad situation Duncan went full Liz Cheney/Kinzinger.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1530594117599776768

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1530594117599776768

can’t fix stupid

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Twenty years ago some of them will still be making this claim.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1530594117599776768

can’t fix stupid

If Kemp narrowly loses, there’s a good chance these voters (or non voters in 2022) could be the difference.

My guess is the ultimate map is basically 2020 with a slightly better performance by Kemp in Cobb/northern Fulton, ect while Abrams does well in Gwinnett and the more diverse suburbs to the east. Rural GA prolly has a pretty universal small R swing. (Similar to the regular GA 2020 Sen race pre runoff). At face value this should be a narrow Kemp victory but if rural GA has even a slight dent in turnout it could spell trouble.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1530594117599776768

can’t fix stupid

If Kemp narrowly loses, there’s a good chance these voters (or non voters in 2022) could be the difference.

My guess is the ultimate map is basically 2020 with a slightly better performance by Kemp in Cobb/northern Fulton, ect while Abrams does well in Gwinnett and the more diverse suburbs to the east. Rural GA prolly has a pretty universal small R swing. (Similar to the regular GA 2020 Sen race pre runoff). At face value this should be a narrow Kemp victory but if rural GA has even a slight dent in turnout it could spell trouble.

Kemp- Warnock voters will be a real thing. GA is normally inelastic but looking at the primary, Herschel ran way behind Kemp in the Atlanta burbs. These quirks have a funny way of reasserting themselves in November. Look at 2020 where Dems had a massive turnout in GA, AZ (relative to 2016) even after Biden had basically won along with anemic turnout in South Florida.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's a fun blast from the past, when David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler slammed Brad Raffensperger right after the 2020 election and called for him to resign:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1325910990735740928

The voters rehired him.

[wbrocks67]

You really wonder if Geoff Duncan may have been able to pull through too if he ran again.

[Adam Griffin]

You really wonder if Geoff Duncan may have been able to pull through too if he ran again.

He would have easily cleared 60, if not 70. Most voters consider that office an extension of the Governorship in these days after its 21st century weakening (remember Democratic incumbent Mark Taylor held onto the seat in 2002 despite Barnes losing the Governorship; powers cut after that, but alas). With Kemp winning by the margin he did, there would be no reason why Duncan wouldn't have easily skied to re-nomination.

[MargieCat]

You really wonder if Geoff Duncan may have been able to pull through too if he ran again.

He would have easily cleared 60, if not 70. Most voters consider that office an extension of the Governorship in these days after its 21st century weakening (remember Democratic incumbent Mark Taylor held onto the seat in 2002 despite Barnes losing the Governorship; powers cut after that, but alas). With Kemp winning by the margin he did, there would be no reason why Duncan wouldn't have easily skied to re-nomination.

I was thinking this on election night.

My first thought was "I bet Geoff Duncan is kicking himself for not seeking re-election."

[Buzz]

I’ve met Geoff Duncan before and he’s a fellow Georgia Tech alum.  He’s a great guy and I’m sad he decided not to run.  We need more R’s like him in office.

[Adam Griffin]

Here comes the spin! Get ready to hear bitter Republicans argue this is why they lost (at least those who aren't already outright saying the election was made-up):

AP: Over 37K voters crossed over in Georgia GOP primary in effort to block Trump-based nominees

Diane Murray struggled with her decision all the way up to Election Day.

But when the time came, the 54-year-old Georgia Democrat cast a ballot in last week’s Republican primary for Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.

While state law allowed her to participate in either party’s primary, she said it felt like a violation of her core values to vote for the Republican. But it had to be done, she decided, to prevent a Donald Trump -backed “election denier” from becoming the battleground state’s election chief.

...

An Associated Press analysis of early voting records from data firm L2 found that more than 37,000 people who voted in Georgia’s Democratic primary two years ago cast ballots in last week’s Republican primary, an unusually high number of so-called crossover voters. Even taking into account the limited sample of early votes, the data reveal that crossover voters were consequential in defeating Trump’s hand-picked candidates for secretary of state and, to a lesser extent, governor.

Gov. Brian Kemp did not ultimately need Democrats in his blowout victory against his Trump-backed opponent, but Raffensperger probably did. The Republican secretary of state cleared the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff election by just over 27,000 votes, according to the latest AP tallies. Based on early voting data alone, 37,144 former Democrats voted in the Republican primary. The total number of crossovers including Election Day votes, set to be revealed in the coming weeks, may be even higher.

Even if we assume every single one of them was a D (as opposed to a D-turned-R) and every single one voted for the non-Trump-backed candidates, all it ended up doing was boosting Raffy from ~49% to 52%. These figures apparently don't include ED crossovers yet (though this of course also ignores that there would always be at least a few thousand net crossovers in any GAGOP primary).

So instead of winning by 19 points, he won by 16 - and based on precedent, he would have almost certainly powered through the runoff regardless (even if the margin was a few points smaller).