Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)
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  Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)  (Read 148947 times)
RicardoCampos
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« Reply #1425 on: October 30, 2022, 02:15:19 PM »
I'm still not allowed to post links, but for those who want additional election night coverage, search in Youtube for:

  • Uol
  • Jovem Pan (the Brazilian Fox News)
  • Brasil247 (Lula supporters)
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1426 on: October 30, 2022, 02:18:17 PM »
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Mike88
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« Reply #1427 on: October 30, 2022, 02:18:43 PM »
Quote from: RicardoCampos on October 30, 2022, 02:15:19 PM
I'm still not allowed to post links, but for those who want additional election night coverage, search in Youtube for:

  • Uol
  • Jovem Pan (the Brazilian Fox News)
  • Brasil247 (Lula supporters)




Joven Pan:



Uol:



Brasil247:
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #1428 on: October 30, 2022, 02:22:02 PM »
Quote from: RicardoCampos on October 30, 2022, 02:15:19 PM
I'm still not allowed to post links, but for those who want additional election night coverage, search in Youtube for:

  • Uol
  • Jovem Pan (the Brazilian Fox News)
  • Brasil247 (Lula supporters)



Obrigado. I think I'm following Jovem Pan because I'm morbidly curious in seeing what the story is on the Bolsonaro side of things.
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RicardoCampos
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« Reply #1429 on: October 30, 2022, 02:24:36 PM »
Quote from: Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil on October 30, 2022, 02:22:02 PM
Quote from: RicardoCampos on October 30, 2022, 02:15:19 PM
I'm still not allowed to post links, but for those who want additional election night coverage, search in Youtube for:

  • Uol
  • Jovem Pan (the Brazilian Fox News)
  • Brasil247 (Lula supporters)



Obrigado. I think I'm following Jovem Pan because I'm morbidly curious in seeing what the story is on the Bolsonaro side of things.

Me too, I love having fun watching them sometimes LOL
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #1430 on: October 30, 2022, 02:27:46 PM »
Where can I find 1st round overseas results, please? I don't find any link!
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Mike88
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« Reply #1431 on: October 30, 2022, 02:29:30 PM »
Quote from: RicardoCampos on October 30, 2022, 02:24:36 PM
Quote from: Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil on October 30, 2022, 02:22:02 PM
Quote from: RicardoCampos on October 30, 2022, 02:15:19 PM
I'm still not allowed to post links, but for those who want additional election night coverage, search in Youtube for:

  • Uol
  • Jovem Pan (the Brazilian Fox News)
  • Brasil247 (Lula supporters)



Obrigado. I think I'm following Jovem Pan because I'm morbidly curious in seeing what the story is on the Bolsonaro side of things.

Me too, I love having fun watching them sometimes LOL

Record should be fun also. The old guy complaining about everyting is quite entertaining. Wink
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #1432 on: October 30, 2022, 02:30:23 PM »
Quote from: RicardoCampos on October 30, 2022, 02:24:36 PM
Quote from: Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil on October 30, 2022, 02:22:02 PM
Quote from: RicardoCampos on October 30, 2022, 02:15:19 PM
I'm still not allowed to post links, but for those who want additional election night coverage, search in Youtube for:

  • Uol
  • Jovem Pan (the Brazilian Fox News)
  • Brasil247 (Lula supporters)



Obrigado. I think I'm following Jovem Pan because I'm morbidly curious in seeing what the story is on the Bolsonaro side of things.

Me too, I love having fun watching them sometimes LOL
If I had 22 real for every time Bolsonaro supporters posted '22' in the JovemPan livechat, I'd be as rich as the people running the bus companies trying to engage in voter suppression.
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icc
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« Reply #1433 on: October 30, 2022, 02:32:42 PM »
« Edited: October 30, 2022, 02:35:54 PM by icc »
For comparison, some benchmarks from the first round (lifted somewhat at random from this thread):

4.5% in: Bolsonaro 48.84%, Lula 42.07%
8.1% in: Bolsonaro 48.51%, Lula 42.64%
13.2% in: Bolsonaro 48.02%, Lula 43.24%
25.8% in: Bolsonaro 47.74%, Lula 43.49%
35.5% in: Bolsonaro 47.34%, Lula 43.86%
46.5% in: Bolsonaro 46.69%, Lula 44.47%
54.6% in: Bolsonaro 46.31%, Lula 44.87%
70.0% in: Lula 45.74%, Bolsonaro 45.51%
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Sestak
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« Reply #1434 on: October 30, 2022, 02:43:22 PM »
Quote from: icc on October 30, 2022, 02:32:42 PM
For comparison, some benchmarks from the first round (lifted somewhat at random from this thread):

4.5% in: Bolsonaro 48.84%, Lula 42.07%
8.1% in: Bolsonaro 48.51%, Lula 42.64%
13.2% in: Bolsonaro 48.02%, Lula 43.24%
25.8% in: Bolsonaro 47.74%, Lula 43.49%
35.5% in: Bolsonaro 47.34%, Lula 43.86%
46.5% in: Bolsonaro 46.69%, Lula 44.47%
54.6% in: Bolsonaro 46.31%, Lula 44.87%
70.0% in: Lula 45.74%, Bolsonaro 45.51%

So this would give an equivalent benchmark of Bolsonaro 56 - Lula 44 at that 4.5%rpt mark for a tied race, then?
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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
ModernBourbon Democrat
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« Reply #1435 on: October 30, 2022, 02:50:46 PM »
Quote from: Sestak on October 30, 2022, 02:43:22 PM
Quote from: icc on October 30, 2022, 02:32:42 PM
For comparison, some benchmarks from the first round (lifted somewhat at random from this thread):

4.5% in: Bolsonaro 48.84%, Lula 42.07%
8.1% in: Bolsonaro 48.51%, Lula 42.64%
13.2% in: Bolsonaro 48.02%, Lula 43.24%
25.8% in: Bolsonaro 47.74%, Lula 43.49%
35.5% in: Bolsonaro 47.34%, Lula 43.86%
46.5% in: Bolsonaro 46.69%, Lula 44.47%
54.6% in: Bolsonaro 46.31%, Lula 44.87%
70.0% in: Lula 45.74%, Bolsonaro 45.51%

So this would give an equivalent benchmark of Bolsonaro 56 - Lula 44 at that 4.5%rpt mark for a tied race, then?

More or less. The only X Factor is that there could have been localized swings that could increase or decrease the margin necessary for Lula to overcome Bolsonaro's initial lead.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #1436 on: October 30, 2022, 02:51:51 PM »
Polls closing is less than ten minutes away.
Anyone want to guess what kind of lead Bolsonaro might have in the early count?
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Mike88
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« Reply #1437 on: October 30, 2022, 02:52:37 PM »
Quote from: Sestak on October 30, 2022, 02:43:22 PM
Quote from: icc on October 30, 2022, 02:32:42 PM
For comparison, some benchmarks from the first round (lifted somewhat at random from this thread):

4.5% in: Bolsonaro 48.84%, Lula 42.07%
8.1% in: Bolsonaro 48.51%, Lula 42.64%
13.2% in: Bolsonaro 48.02%, Lula 43.24%
25.8% in: Bolsonaro 47.74%, Lula 43.49%
35.5% in: Bolsonaro 47.34%, Lula 43.86%
46.5% in: Bolsonaro 46.69%, Lula 44.47%
54.6% in: Bolsonaro 46.31%, Lula 44.87%
70.0% in: Lula 45.74%, Bolsonaro 45.51%

So this would give an equivalent benchmark of Bolsonaro 56 - Lula 44 at that 4.5%rpt mark for a tied race, then?

RicardoCampos posted, a few pages back, this:
Quote from: RicardoCampos on October 30, 2022, 10:49:38 AM
We can say that Bolsonaro will start at the front, so to facilitate the follow-up of today's elections, based on my own feeling:

  • Bolsonaro >60%: if start with Bolsonaro with more than 60%, Bolsonaro wins
  • Bolsonaro <55%: if start with Bolsonaro with less than 55%, Lula wins in the end
  • Bolsonaro >55% and <60%: if start with Bolsonaro between 55% and 60%, the result is unpredictable


When 4-5% of precincts will be reporting, you could start doing the math.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1438 on: October 30, 2022, 02:56:24 PM »
Quote from: Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil on October 30, 2022, 02:51:51 PM
Polls closing is less than ten minutes away.
Anyone want to guess what kind of lead Bolsonaro might have in the early count?

My guess is that Bolsonaro underperforms.  The actions of the Bolsonaro camp last few days seem to indicate that they think they are most likely behind.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1439 on: October 30, 2022, 03:00:59 PM »
Polls are now closed.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1440 on: October 30, 2022, 03:03:55 PM »
0.12% reporting:

57.3% Lula
42.7% Bolsonaro
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #1441 on: October 30, 2022, 03:05:05 PM »
Where can I find the official results?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1442 on: October 30, 2022, 03:06:18 PM »
How likely is it that we have a winner in 10-12 hours?
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skbl17
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« Reply #1443 on: October 30, 2022, 03:06:39 PM »
Quote from: Yeahsayyeah on October 30, 2022, 03:05:05 PM
Where can I find the official results?

https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/app/index.html#/eleicao;e=e545/resultados/cargo/1

Here's the TSE's official results page.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #1444 on: October 30, 2022, 03:07:03 PM »
Lula: 105,844 (56.36%)
Bolsonaro: 81,946 (43.64%)
0.12% REPORTING
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #1445 on: October 30, 2022, 03:09:38 PM »
Tropical Mussolini has taken the lead:

Bolsonaro: 215,888 (52.64%)
Lula: 194,219 (47.36%)
0.30% REPORTING
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jaichind
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« Reply #1446 on: October 30, 2022, 03:09:48 PM »
Bolsonaro takes the lead 52.6 to 47.4 with .3% in
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1447 on: October 30, 2022, 03:11:14 PM »
Are there likely to be exit polls or is it just the long count?
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Double Carpet
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« Reply #1448 on: October 30, 2022, 03:11:59 PM »
Quote from: Filuwaúrdjan on October 30, 2022, 03:11:14 PM
Are there likely to be exit polls or is it just the long count?

No exit polls afaik.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1449 on: October 30, 2022, 03:12:07 PM »
Quote from: Filuwaúrdjan on October 30, 2022, 03:11:14 PM
Are there likely to be exit polls or is it just the long count?

My understanding is that there are no exit polls
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