MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[OneJ]

I'll definitely keep a close eye on this race. I'll get too complacent like last year and Ross, Feinstein, Kander (the result was not very surprising though), and Bayh all ended up getting beaten.

So are a good number of Montanans getting fed up with the "establishment or the usual" or could it be something else?

BTW, thanks ciync.

[OneJ]

Here is an interesting thought.  If Quist wins and holds the seat until redistricting, he may thereafter have an easier time keeping his seat, since Montana is expected to gain a congressional district.  Assuming the states districts are drawn so that one takes up the west half of the state, and another takes up the east half, he would be competing for a seat that I think would be either a tossup or Democrat leaning, since Quist is from the western half of the state. 

Good point made.

[OneJ]

Cant Betwixt the Quist!

Can't Twist the Quist sounds better IMO.

Can't Resist the Quist.

All of them are great imo.

[OneJ]

Let's also wait & see what Gravis has to offer (although their results are usually screwed up and will definitely have to take them with a grain of salt). It's definitely not the end for Quist, especially after recent events.

[OneJ]

Undecideds blew up and Quist was "gaining ground?" Lol okay Gravis.

[OneJ]

I made a map showing the percentage of requested ballots returned so far in the Bullock (red) and Pianoforte (blue) counties. I apologize for the awful color scheme:

Don't you mean Quist TN? Lol.

[OneJ]

I made a map showing the percentage of requested ballots returned so far in the Bullock (red) and Pianoforte (blue) counties. I apologize for the awful color scheme:

Don't you mean Quist TN? Lol.

No, Bullock. Bullock was the Democratic nominee for governor in 2016 and this map shows the percentage of requested ballots returned so far in the counties won by Bullock and Pianoforte in the 2016 gubernatorial race. Obviously there is no way we can know what the map for the special election will look like.

Ah. I see now.

[OneJ]

From Eric Erickson:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Good. Although it would've been better if they spent more resources in Montana however, but I'm not complaining.

[OneJ]

As of 5/22:

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 65.4% of mail-ins returned (+2.8 )

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 67.4% of mail-ins returned (+4.6)

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 62.5% of mail-ins returned (+3.8 )

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 71.6% of mail-ins returned (+2.4)

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 71.1% of mail-ins returned (+2.8 )

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 62.3% of mail-ins returned (+3.1)

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 73.4% of mail-ins returned (+2.5)

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 69.6% of mail-ins returned (+4.7)

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 68.1% of mail-ins returned (+1.4)

STATEWIDE: 67.2% of mail-ins returned

Added the change (5/21-5/22) in brackets.

Can I please ask what the "+" numbers towards the end in parenthesis are?

I believe that indicates from the previous day's % of ballots returned.

[OneJ]

The thing is that the more R-friendly counties have turned out at a higher rate than the more D-friendly counties. So if anything, Quist has more room to grow.

[OneJ]

Frightening.

[OneJ]

Why would Paul Ryan turn his back on Gianforte? He refused to do that publicly after Trump's tape bragging about sexual assaults. Both Handel & Gianforte are firm yes votes for Ryan & Trumpcare, that is why CFL is running so many ads & are spending so much money there !

Paul Ryan is getting a strong ally, he knows this will die down after a while !

I agree with Shadows here. If he wouldn't call out Trump's tape, why would he call out Gianforte's?

[OneJ]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

Montana is a swing state for non presidential elections. They've elected Tester, Bullock, Baucus, Schweitzer, etc. Trump's 20 point win is meaningless in terms of helpfulness to forecast this race.

All those people were first elected before the rise of right wing populism.

That doesn't mean anything. Trump is crashing and burning and is ultimately dragging other Republicans down with him. Montana is an elastic swing state downballot (and on occasion on the presidential level).

Saying things like that is what would keep the Democrats down from taking the House (and maybe the Senate) away from the Republicans.

[OneJ]

The suspense is killing me lol. I've been so vested in this election.

I feel the same. I have goosebumps now actually. Lol.

[OneJ]

What are some good results pages?

New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/montana-house-special-election

[OneJ]

Jonathan Martin‏ @jmartNYT  2m2 minutes ago
GOP firm Remington Research did a robo poll today in MT to test awareness of body-slam:

93% had heard of it. 
9% said voted Quist bc of it

9% is actually higher than what I thought it was gonna be, lol.

I thought the same lmao.