🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Oryxslayer]

Will any CDS voters not vote for the merged CDS-PSD?

Just commenting that the majority of parliamentary mergers, like cooperate ones, rarely are a net benefit for the two groups. There are always voters who came to the absorbed party because they disliked other groups, including the party benefiting from the merger. There are also absorbing party voters put off by some of the policies or individuals within the absorbed party.

Now sometimes it works out, and sometimes mergers have to occur to save a party from electoral thresholds, but Israel and the Netherlands offer a number of examples of failed mergers.

[Oryxslayer]

Almost final results, just 4 precincts yet to report:

52.5% Rui Rio (18,794)
47.5% Paulo Rangel (17,008)

  1.4% Blank/Invalid (513)

78.2% Turnout (36,315)

So what do we think this means: the PSD membership wants unity and a strong alternate in the face of a chaotic election...but they also want a Conservative coalition? The coalition thing is weird given that it is driven more by outcomes then by agreeable pre-election desires.

[Oryxslayer]

Almost final results, just 4 precincts yet to report:

52.5% Rui Rio (18,794)
47.5% Paulo Rangel (17,008)

  1.4% Blank/Invalid (513)

78.2% Turnout (36,315)

So what do we think this means: the PSD membership wants unity and a strong alternate in the face of a chaotic election...but they also want a Conservative coalition? The coalition thing is weird given that it is driven more by outcomes then by agreeable pre-election desires.

I believe the PSD membership didn't understand Rangel's candidacy and what it stand for and decided with continuity. Regarding coalitions, do you mean the possible PSD-CDS coalition, or the possibility of PSD-PS government pacts?

Yes thank you for you your updates on the election BTW. It seemed like most of the emphasis, now that an election was imminent, was on each candidate's approach to government. Given however that outcomes decide government options, even at time break down cordons and defy pre-election statements, preferred coalitions didn't seem like a meaningful division. But maybe that's just it - few clear known divisions with the surrounding circumstances dictating the outcome.

[Oryxslayer]

2022 election campaign: There will be 36 debates, so far, between parties.

WTF, that can't be normal...right? Especially for a campaign of a few weeks. That number would devalue all but the debate between PSD and PS.

[Oryxslayer]

Usual predictable populist right sloganising, then.

Yes, it leapt out to me how generic these are too...

Snip

Always interesting to see what parties put their leader front and center on their advertising, and which ones do not.

[Oryxslayer]

New polling:

SNIP

I hope this isn't cherry-picking and we actually will soon have a race on our hands. Competition is good.

[Oryxslayer]

Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

34.6% PS (-1.9)
33.5% PSD (+0.6)
 6.3% CHEGA (nc)
 6.3% IL (+1.1)
 4.9% BE (-0.1)
 4.5% CDU (-0.5)
 1.6% PAN (-0.3)
 1.6% Livre (+0.1)
 1.2% CDS (+0.2)
 5.3% Others/Invalid (+0.6)

Poll conducted between 17 and 20 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%

PS+BE+CDU+PAN+Livre=47,2%
PSD+Chega+IL+CDS=47,3%

Very interesting...

If this was to be the final result - a big if - do you think there would be an (unworkable given Rio and Ventura's relationship) Right wing majority of seats or Left Wing majority? PS might be the marginal beneficiary or D'Hondt, but the smaller Right parties would probably be winning more seats than the smaller Left one - benefiting in a similar comparative fashion from the electoral system.

[Oryxslayer]

Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

34.5% PSD (+1.0)
33.5% PS (-1.1)
 6.5% CHEGA (+0.2)
 5.7% IL (-0.6)
 5.7% BE (+0.8 )
 4.7% CDU (+0.2)
 1.6% PAN (nc)
 1.2% Livre (-0.4)
 0.8% CDS (-0.4)
 5.9% Others/Invalid (+0.6)

Poll conducted between 18 and 21 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%.

Saw in my twitter feed that this is the first poll in six years without a PS lead

[Oryxslayer]

Turnout update: (compared with previous elections at the same hour)

12pm

2022: 23.27% (+4.44%)
2019: 18.83%
2015: 20.65%
2011: 20.01%
2009: 21.29%
2005: 21.93%
2002: 18.97%

Interesting...

Do we know if that is just today or if the early-in-person stuff is added on?

[Oryxslayer]

Do we know if that is just today or if the early-in-person stuff is added on?

It's both election day vote and early voting, I believe. At least last year, in the Presidential elections, polling workers, before polls opened, inserted early ballots in ballot boxes. I assume the same happened this time.

Okay. I'm just wondering if the increased turnout statistic is a mirage caused by the early voting, and if this is the case, then we won't get an idea of the true behavior until later in the day.

[Oryxslayer]

^ I'm not sure if you are having trouble with links/images since you are a new user, but the gyazo takes one to a online models results. And as we saw when the PSD drew level with PS for a moment last week, the modeled distribution suggests anything less than a 2% PS lead could be a nail-biter. A popular vote/seat count winner difference would be an interesting result that's for sure.

[Oryxslayer]

Turnout update: (compared with previous elections at the same hour)

4pm

2022: 45.66% (+7.07%)
2019: 38.59%
2015: 44.38%
2011: 41.98%
2009: 43.30%
2005: 50.90%
2002: 45.87%

If the early vote was hypothetically skewing this count, then the percent increase would be going down, not up. Only other way I could think to explain this beyond increased enthusiasm is the desire to avoid the "covid hours" right before polls close. So it looks like voters are energized.

[Oryxslayer]

Any theories as to which parties are helped or hurt by a high turnout?

Well, we have had low and high turnout elections, and there isn't a clear pattern: we've had low turnout elections with PS and PSD victories, and high turnout elections with PS and PSD victories. Plus, there's few data on who's showing up to vote. If it's more younger voters, the rightwing parties will be benefited, but if there's also a high turnout on the elderly, the leftwing, and specially the PS, are the main benefited.

Are young voters more right-wing because of IL and Chega? I'm asking because PSD comes off as such a dull, charmless party that it would be strange to see it do well among young people.

The subtext here is that it is 'usual' for parties alligned with the left to do well with the youth. But it is also worth remembering that (sometimes once) big Socialist/Labour/SPD-style parties in Europe are often pensioner parties. There are are variety of reasons for this that have been discussed elsewhere, but this feature is why some parties like the PvDA are in seemingly terminal decline and the youth is nested with other parties.

One unique reason why this exists in Portugal though is cause if you are over 60 years old, you are likely to have spent some time of your life before, during, or right after the Revolution, which will forever color an individuals perspective in a way unimaginable to subsequent generations.

[Oryxslayer]

If true then we have a rerun of the 2021 Canadian election haha.

Well not really. It looks like PS gained by cannibalizing BE and CDU compared to polls. Would be very funny if the "unworkable right coalition" has the majority but PS has a commanding lead.