CA-25: Garcia just barely leads

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Who is the most likely to lose in 2022, Garcia, Kim, or Steel?

I suspect the commission will draw a vote sink in Orange County which can probably draw out Kim and shore up the other OC Dems. Steel would be safe. It’s possible to draw a Dem leaning version of CA-25 but from drawing the map it potentially risks other seats and is rather messy. At most Garcia will get a Tossup seat which will still be a tough battle for him to hold on to long term.

Other way around. Steel's seat is extremely easy to get rid of. Kim's depends on how minorities in North and West OC continue to vote.