Rothenberg Senate Rankings

[Brittain33]

If I had to edit further, I'd push Illinois into the Clear Advantage category, along with McCain.  I'd otherwise put an asterisk next to New York's open seat and Delaware—both are almost guaranteed to go Democrat, but there is at least a scenario where either could wind up in competitive territory.

I don't think there are any potential viable candidates for the Rs in Delaware. In New York, I could see a viable Republican running and a Democrat completely imploding, even if it's unlikely.

[Brittain33]

If I had to edit further, I'd push Illinois into the Clear Advantage category, along with McCain.  I'd otherwise put an asterisk next to New York's open seat and Delaware—both are almost guaranteed to go Democrat, but there is at least a scenario where either could wind up in competitive territory.

I don't think there are any potential viable candidates for the Rs in Delaware.

Castle.

key word is "viable" - Castle is not.  Health issues + age + 40 year personal relationship with the Biden family mean he's not going to run

This. Thanks.

[Brittain33]

No way Gillibrand should be considered safe, even in New York.   She's not well known enough yet and may face a brutal primary challenge from someone downstate.  Couple that with the possibility of a prominent Republican other than Peter King getting into the race if things get ugly enough, and I think that seat belongs in the Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party pile instead.

Rothenberg rates "safe" according to party control, so he's factoring in a Gillibrand primary defeat by any viable Democrat as "safe."

In that sense, she is, because betting against a Democratic senator in N.Y. is like betting against a Republican senator in Utah. When was the last time one lost a race? The 1800s?

[Brittain33]

Most incumbents haven't lost a race, but the last appointed temporary Senator from New York, Republican Charles Goodell, lost a three-way race to Conservative James Buckley in 1970.  That's right - New York elected a Conservative Senator within the past 40 years. 

Do you really think that has any relevance to a Senate election in New York in 2010? Are you familiar with the importance of the Nassau Republican machine to statewide wins, and what kind of shape it's in now? How about relative population growth upstate?

No Democratic senator has lost a race for reelection in New York in eons. The last Republican to be elected to the Senate for the first time was in 1980, and that was in a 3-way race with a liberal Republican who siphoned off Democratic support in a Republican landslide year. Most damningly, you can't beat somebody with nobody. There is no Republican in the state with the stature and appeal to win a statewide federal race.

You can cherry-pick data to give hope where there is none, but the preponderance of the evidence is on the side of people who see Gillibrand or another Democrat winning reelection easily just as Republicans, appointed or not, cruise to election in Wyoming, Idaho, and Utah Senate seats.

[Brittain33]

Sorry for calling you insane, but that article was just cherrypicking a bunch of Democrats complaining about his vote.  Mack comes from a conservative district, he's not going to be in hot water over that vote.

While it is a conservative district, and he's at no risk for losing election, I would not be surprised if he wasn't genuinely getting heat from the Chamber of Commerce types about how desperately they need help. Cape Coral, Lehigh Acres--these are areas as well-publicized as Queen Creek, AZ, Tracy, CA, or Victorville, CA for having squashed Ponzi economies based solely on construction. Only unlike those other areas, FL-14 isn't even an exurb of anything. Unemployment in Lee County, FL is astronomical.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/08/us/08lehigh.html

FL-13 and FL-16 are likely doing better, financially.

[Brittain33]

Finally, I'm not sure KY should be so highly ranked. Not because I think Bunning stands a prayer of re-election, but I just don't quite believe he'll wind up as the Republican nominee.

Well, let's look at it this way. If Bunning is the nominee, it is Safe Democratic Takeover. The Democrats have multiple top-tier nominees running for the seat, while all of the potential Republicans (short of Grayson, who won't primary Bunning) are second-tier. You could do a weighted average of performance with Bunning or without Bunning as the nominee and possible get Lean Takeover. I don't know if that's how Rothenburg calculated it, though. Burris is an interesting counterexample for a similar phenomenon.

[Brittain33]

    * Specter (D-PA)

Wow.

[Brittain33]

It's premature to say that Kentucky is lean takeover.  The primary hasn't even begun!

I believe Rothenburg goes according to declared candidates only, which explains Kentucky and Delaware.