Canadian by-elections, 2015

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First polls counted are in. PQ 39%, CAQ 31%, PLQ 21%.
As expected the fight is between PQ and CAQ for the win.

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CAQ and PQ at about 35% with 10 votes difference between the two.

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With more than 25% of polling stations counted, PQ leads by 84 votes (36% to 34%).

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At halfway, it's 35%-33%-24%. PQ leads by around 200 votes.

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It's almost a tie with around 30 vote difference.

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PQ's lead has increased to over 200 votes. Getting near the end now.

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Jean-Talon has been Liberal since its creation and the PLQ is expected to hold it. The PLQ candidate is Sébastien Proulx. He was the member of National Assembly for Trois-Rivières representing the ADQ during the period the ADQ was the official opposition. He was the House leader for the opposition. Before running in the by-election he was an adviser to Couillard.

Chauveau was vacated by Gérard Deltell because he will run for the federal Conservatives. Last election he won with 52% to 30% for the PLQ. The race is between these two parties. They both have women journalist as candidates. For the CAQ it's Jocelyne Cazin. I think she is retired from journalism. She was living in the Laurentians (north of Montreal) so attacked as parachuted in the riding.

The PLQ is running Véronyque Tremblay, she lives in the riding. She was still active in media, working at the most popular radio station in Quebec City prior to jumping to politics a few weeks ago.

During advance voting, 15% of people already voted in Jean-Talon and 14% in Chauveau.       

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The Q-Conservative party candidate in Chauveau is the leader. I think he is regurlay interviewed by some Quebec city radio stations. One host wrote Why not vote for him?:

http://www.journaldequebec.com/2015/06/01/chauveau--pourquoi-pas-adrien-pouliot

The latest CROP poll had for the Quebec city region, PLQ 37%, CAQ 27%, PQ 23%.
  

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Chauveau was expected to be a close CAQ-PLQ battle. Lower turnout of a by-election probably hurts CAQ too and PLQ found a good candidate.

Must be one of the strongest showing for the Quebec conservative party in an election.

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I don't know if it was a factor for voters but governments make the case it's easier to get something done when you are on the side of power. In Chauveau's case I know the govermnent said they could deliver on a promise of a superclinic and more doctors.  

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Do you think CAQ could win it? I imagine Dutil had some personal popularity, as the are is quite conservative.

The PLQ is quite conservative. Beauce I imagine is satisfied with streamlining of government. Always seems easy for PLQ to find good candidates.

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The PLQ candidate for Saint-Henri - Saint-Anne will be Dominique Anglade. She comes from the CAQ. She ran for CAQ in 2012 in Fabre and is a former party president.

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The four Quebec byelections will be held November 9th. It was announced October 7 so overlap the federal election.

Beauce-Sud
Fabre (western tip of Laval)
René-Lévesque (main town Baie-Comeau)
Saint-Henri - Sainte-Anne