Canadian by-elections, 2015

[RogueBeaver]

CBC projects Brown victory.

[Boston Bread]

Not a strong performance, but what is essentially a repeat of the 2011 results in this riding should not scare the OLP.

[136or142]

Liberals look like a lock for second place.

Calgary-Foothills byelection returns here:
http://results.elections.ab.ca/11.htm

None so far.

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals have dropped a lot, but not enough to fall to third. NDP increase is too small to catch up.

[Boston Bread]

First poll in Foothills has PC leading NDP and WR in a distant third. It's the retirement residence, interestingly.

[136or142]

First of 86 polls in Alberta reporting.

[Hatman 🍁]

First poll saw an increase in the NDP vote, second poll to come in saw a large decrease

[Hatman 🍁]

Third poll in also saw a decrease the NDP vote and an increase in the Wildrose

[Hatman 🍁]

4 polls reporting

Change in vote (just in those 4 polls):

WRP: +17%
NDP: -2%
PC: -16%

[136or142]

8 polls reporting now, NDP has won two of them.

[Boston Bread]

WHY ARE PEOPLE VOTING LIBERAL

[RogueBeaver]

19/66: WRP 797, NDP 701, PC 555.

[136or142]

NDP has won 7 of 19 polls.

[Njall]

30 polls in now, WRP seems to be pulling ahead.

Keep in mind that the advance polls haven't been reported yet, and supposedly more advance votes were cast this time around than in may.  Roughly 4500 advance votes were cast, I believe.

[136or142]

Looks like it's more likely that P.Cs could finish second than NDP could finish first.

[Njall]

Looks like it's more likely that P.Cs could finish second than NDP could finish first.

As much as I'd like a strong PC finish, I don't know how likely that is.  Many of the remaining polls cover neighborhoods in the Symons Valley area, which were less PC friendly in the general election.

[RogueBeaver]

43/66: WR 1914, NDP 1473, PC 1332.

[adma]

Not a strong performance, but what is essentially a repeat of the 2011 results in this riding should not scare the OLP.

Well, maybe relative to the 2014 result, it would.  (And given the federal-camp civil war over the nomination, the fact that the ONDP would do that well may be more impressive than it looks)

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like my swing analysis of the first few polls turned out to be an accurate representation of the outcome (so far).

[RogueBeaver]

NDP concedes. Woot.

[Holmes]

That makes sense. A by-election after an NDP majority that has no real effect on anything would lead to a WRP victory in this kind of riding. A respectable NDP showing regardless.

[Hatman 🍁]

That makes sense. A by-election after an NDP majority that has no real effect on anything would lead to a WRP victory in this kind of riding. A respectable NDP showing regardless.

Maybe, but it looks like a loss in vote share, with a much stronger candidate. The honeymoon is over

[Boston Bread]

First ADV poll is dragging down the PCs more than anything.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final results from Simcoe North

PC: 53.7% (+9.8 )
Liberal: 23.6% (-9.0)
NDP: 16.9% (+1.0)
Green: 4.6% (-3.4)
New Reform: 0.5%
The People: 0.4%
Libertarian 0.3% (lol!)
Paupers: 0.1%

PC hold (two party swing: +9.4%)

Turnout: 40.9%

[136or142]

Second advance poll very bad news for the NDP.  Now more than 10% behind.