Outside NC redistricting, do any seats flip D-->R?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

CA-47, MI-07/8, MD-06, VA-07

These are 5 seats that would be close to likely D if the Dem incumbents ran, but are now tossup due to being open seats. CA-47 is well Orange County, and Republicans have managed to recover significantly since 2018. The Michigan two are obvious. MD-06 will go comfortably for Biden, but Hogan will likely carry it by double digits. Whether the house race tracks closer to the Presidential or Senate will be key. VA-07 will vote Biden again, but it's unclear whether Trump does worse in VA this time around. Additionally, the GOP is likely going to nominate a better candidate than Vega.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Quite a few. Kaptur and MGP go down for sure.

I think Kaptur should be fine honestly. MGP is in a tossup race but she can certainly win.

Yes.

Four categories to watch:
Trump seats (AK-AL, ME-02, OH-09, PA-08, WA-03)
Competitive open seats (CA-47, MD-06, MI-07, MI-08, VA-07)
Seats that were close in 2022 (CO-08, CT-05, NM-02, NY-18, PA-07)
Working-class seats (IN-01, OH-13, all three seats in NV)

Democrats are individually favored in almost all of these districts, but of these 20, I think at least one will end up flipping. My hot take is that CA-47 is the most vulnerable.

This is fair; just by pure numbers Democrats should lose *something*.

However, everything in the first category are Democrats with history of big overperformances and almost everything else is a Biden seat, often seat Biden carried by quite a bit and will likely carry again in 2024. In my opinion, seats like VA-07 and MD-06 are not tossups; Biden already carried both seats by ~10% in 2020 and generally these seats have been getting bluer. There's also no reason to expect some sort of localized red wave in the DC metro region.

There is a sizeable chunk of suburban voters who hate Trump but are totally fine voting for a generic boring Republican downballot.