Canadian by-elections, 2015

[lilTommy]

Sudbury: rejected Grit candidate Andrew Olivier will run as an indie.

Any chance the Liberals had at winning, is long gone now... Oliver will likely pull in 5-10% of the liberal sympathy/protest vote at minimum I think over the mess the OLP made with this Thibeault coronation.
 
The NDP base is highly motivated and rightly pee'd off at Glen personally and at the OLP, so are the local unions. The push is to defeat them both. The last poll had Glen OLP slightly leading over a yet to be nominated NDP candidate, that does not bode well for his chances. The NDP have 4 or 5 candidates vying for the nomination which fly's in the face of what the OLP did.

[lilTommy]

I think Olivier might take some of the NDP vote as well. Hopefully not as much.

True, you might see some less partisan NDP vote shift, that sympathy/protest vote; but given how motivated and driven the NDP will be to defeat Glen, I think many NDP'ers were hoping Oliver would run as an Indie.

[lilTommy]

Kenora voted the way it did because a Con fluked into 2nd over NDP in 2006, thus anointing the Cons as the "strategic anti-Liberal" option going into 2008, and then incumbent advantage in 2011...

Meanwhile, the provincial NDP gets majorities/near majorities in the provincial riding? OK. I've been told that Tania Cameron was a "terrible candidate" which I am afraid is probably code. You can't deny that the racism is pretty bad up there. The riding has a large Aboriginal population, and are certainly not the elite of towns like Kenora.

Also Remember Kenora Federally is not Kenora-Rainy River Provincially, The NDPs strength was in the old Rainy River riding/area where Howard Hampton owned and Sarah Campbell the current MPP was his Assistant or whatever the term is. In 90 the NDP didn't even win the then Kenora riding! Could Tania Cameron as an aboriginal been a factor?, god I hope not. My thoughts are in 2011 it was the Gun registry, Con incumbent and Liberal/NDP vote splitting that was more a factor, perhaps Cameron was not a strong candidate but on Paper she looked competitive.

[lilTommy]

The Rainy-River area isn't that much more NDP friendly than the rest of the riding: http://election-atlas.ca/ont/107/35.php?e=2014

... I was going to add things have changed provincially since then... I should have
Federally it looks like Kenora (city) and Dryden voted heavily CON, while the Northern rural polls (more heavily Aboriginal) voted more towards the NDP in 2011 and Liberal in 2008 http://www.election-atlas.ca/fed/308/35035.php?e=2011
While provincially those same areas all trended NDP.

[lilTommy]

Too bad for Olivier, but the I guess voters realize this is a 2-horse race. Voters upset with the Libs can just vote NDP. If Olivier really wanted to win, and stick it to the Libs, he should've run for the NDP. Not sure he'd have won the nomination, though.

I'm actually kind of surprised he's polling so low, but you might be right Hatman, this was going to be a horse race, thought more disgruntled OLP would stick with Oliver though.
I can expect her vote to only go up as her name gets out there. Frankly Suzanne Shawbonquit is a "progressive" dream candidate on paper; a woman, a minority candidate and with business experience... type of candidate Wynne herself would have wanted to run, but i guess a second rate leftover will do too (yup, not a fan of floor crosser's)
Not sure if this was mentioned but Glen was not actually the MP for Sudbury, but rather Nickel Belt. I'm not sure if any of his Federal riding is actually in the provincial Sudbury riding? While Claude Gravelle the NDP MP for Sudbury has already spoken out against Glen's move, not sure if that will make any impact (the poll shows not really) but still a few weeks to do.

[lilTommy]

Gravelle is the MP for Nickel Belt, Thibeault was the MP for Sudbury.

.... :l totally disregard my comment...

[lilTommy]

SUPER scientific online poll on the CBC
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/sudbury-byelection-issues-may-get-hyperlocal-nipissing-prof-says-1.2897803
Shows that Oliver is polling at 12% and Greens at 13%
The NDP 38 vs OLP 26% - at the time i saw it about 1K voted... like I said SUPER scientific but it makes me think perhaps Oliver will poll better then 1%

[lilTommy]

Perfect timing... Oliver has released the taps of his conversation with Sorbara and Gerry Lougheed

http://www.thesudburystar.com/2015/01/15/olivier-releases-recordings

[lilTommy]

The OPP were called in, no criminal offence http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/ontario-liberals-did-not-commit-criminal-offence-opp-1.2898167

But, it basically contradicts the Premier, it calls her out as having lied about the whole issue.

[lilTommy]

Thibeault on why he switched: he suddenly realized that a lot of his pet issues are under provincial jurisdiction, he ran for Layton's style (faint echoes of Lise St. Denis) and the NDP has changed since, touchy-feely stuff about Wynne's leadership style.

Odd no mention of the backroom deal to get a nice power seat at the table... If he wanted to anger the local NDP more, he did it by throwing Layton's name in there. Needless to say, that "answer" is not going over well with the Northern Dippers

[lilTommy]

Yes.  In 1990 the NDP formed government with no seats in Brampton.  Brampton is much bigger now and it's a place where the NDP would need to win more seats.  So yes, it matters more than in 1990, but as hatman says, a winning coalition excludes most of the 905 belt.

There are very few ridings that can actually be described as "fast growing" and "low income."  More typical of 905 fast-growth is found in York and Halton regions - not exactly NDP territory.

The NDP could think tactically; target those older, working class 905 ridings in Durham, a region they have held while in 90, Oshawa is the beach head and the lowest hanging fruit there. Target riding's like Brampton East and North (new ones) were they came in second in Prov election where they have built up some base in the South Asian community. 
Anything outside those would be taking in a wave, probably have to have a strong locally known candidates in place. The way the NDP will win is by focusing in SWON, North and urban areas. Etobicoke North, York West, Scarb North, Centre, SW... are the only demographically TO riding's the NDP has a shot at but the Liberals have to collapse, I don't see the DT out of reach, it just means falling back in that some "champagne socialist" policies. To win the NDP basically has to run two campaigns, one for Toronto/urban seats (more champagn socialist, big idea, progressive outright) and one for the rest (working class, meat'n potatoes, what's in it for me policies)

[lilTommy]

Always the optimist!  But seriously, could the NDP really win more than half a dozen seats in the 905 belt?

They already have won two; and came in second in another... so that's already halfway there during a mixed to poor showing election (Provincial 14')

[lilTommy]

Trouble is, aside from JagmeetSinghLand and Oshawa, the party has virtually no infrastructure, real or potentially supportive municipal office holders et al, to wheedle 905 victories out of...

Not entirely correct; Dhillon, who can in second in Brampton-Springdale is now on Brampton Council. There are a number of other NDP members in the 905 in governments:
Joanne Dies - Ajax city council
Nester Pidwerbecki - Regional/City Councillor, Oshawa
Colleen Jordan - Ajax Regional Councillor

Former municipal politicians:
Evelyn Buck - Aurora city council
Eric Carter - Brampton Council

That was just using Wikipedia! I'm sure there are others, I was looking at GTA 905 (so Peel, Halton, York and Durham)

[lilTommy]

Jenny Kwan won the NDP nomination for Vancouver East, meaning at some time there will be a provincial by-election in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant.
The biggest battle for this seat will be for who will win the NDP nomination, it's an almost guarantee'd ticket to Victoria; the Liberals will be fighting the greens for second place.

[lilTommy]

Two NDP MLA in Nova Scotia both stepped down today

Gordie Gosse, MLA Sydney-Whitney Pier has been fighting Cancer (he looks terrible now) since last year and it looks to be taking a hard toll.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/gordie-gosse-cape-breton-mla-to-resign-1.3018938

Frank Corbett, MLA Cape Breton Centre, stepping down for family, personal reasons
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/frank-corbett-cape-breton-centre-mla-to-resign-1.3018977

Both seats became competitive for the Liberals in 2013, the NDP winning Sydney-Whitney Pier 49-43 and Cape Breton Centre 45-43. but compare that to 2009 where they NDP won with 71%(Gosse) and 78%(Corbett)
Three upcoming by-elections in NS, the NDPs best to just focus on these two instead of Dartmouth. Liberals seem to be still in a mild-honeymoon stage based on the last poll someone shared so the NDP might be at risk if the Liberals run high with strong candidates.

[lilTommy]

Jenny Kwan won the NDP nomination for Vancouver East, meaning at some time there will be a provincial by-election in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant.
The biggest battle for this seat will be for who will win the NDP nomination, it's an almost guarantee'd ticket to Victoria; the Liberals will be fighting the greens for second place.

While the NDP should be considered the favourites here (as it is their safest BC seat), I wouldn`t be surprised to see the Greens actually win this seat. Believe it or not.  Some reasons:

1. Prior to the May, 2013 election, the BC Greens were never heard from. And they had a dud for a leader.

2. Subsequent to the May, 2013 election, their first BC Green MLA Andrew Weaver (and only candidate for leadership) seems to be getting most of the media attention. Almost as if he is the de facto leader of the opposition. BC NDP leader Horgan is rarely in the media.

3. Inner areas of the City of Vancouver proper are fertile future political territory for the Greens - Kitsilano, West End, and Strathcona (where this riding is situate).

4. During the November, 2014 municipal election, the civic Greens came out of no where and elected 4 members to Vancouver municipal bodies including the poll topping councillor.

5. While the Greens ran a paper candidate here last time, they still came in 2nd in many polling stations and won a popular vote share as high as 27%.

6. This time the Greens will be running a `star` candidate here whose name remains under wraps:

`Keith Baldrey @keithbaldrey  ·  Apr 2

Tonight on @VoiceofBC @AJWVictoriaBC tells me Green Party is set to run well-known star candidate in looming Van-Mt. Pleasant byelexn.`

7. The Greens also have some `wedge` issues with the BC NDP - including total opposition to Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning, which would see vast increase in oil tanker traffic running right past this riding.

8. The Greens in BC (both provincially and federally) both have the wind in their sails and apparent momentum. OTOH, the NDP in BC does not.

Again, the BC NDP should still be considered the favourite here but I wouldn`t be surprised if the Greens take this by-election either.

PS. While the BC Libs received about 18% popular vote share here in 2013, wouldn`t be surprised to see their vote share drop to 10% or so with some movement from them over to the BC Greens as well.

If that BC Green Candidate is Matt Toner http://www.straight.com/news/425421/matt-toner-announces-bid-vancouver-mount-pleasant-jump-ndp-greens I'm not sure i'd call him a star, but I think that is a good steal of a candidate, but the advantage even without a candidate is the NDP... and the NDP above all other parties (the membership at least) is brutal towards party switchers.

[lilTommy]

What better time!... but this would be very interesting to try and read; using 2011 federal figures both would go NPDQ correct? in Particular Saint-Henri--Sainte-Anne looks to be a good fit for the NDP, QS tends to poll over 10% and they would not be the happiest with a NPDQ running. I'm actually really hopeful that they do run candidates!

[lilTommy]

What is the point of the NDPQ right now, then? Pierre Ducasse is too important of an NDPer to be leading a dormant party, when he could be getting elected to the House of Commons right now, and possibly becoming a cabinet minister.

I think Ducasse might have hurt himself a little with some in the party by going after a sitting MP, a young aboriginal one at that... so I've been trying to read up (mostly on rabble) looks like he's been keeping a low profile since then, probably working the campaign.

The common thread I am seeing is that QS is largely occupying the space the NPDQ would (in particular on the island of Montreal). In particular its noted Francois David and Boulerice work very closely together (offices are in the same building at that)... QS being formed by a merger, I don't see it  being that far fetched that the NPDQ and QS could merge in some fashion. Is there a will though?
There is also the national question which is what broke apart the last NPDQ, but that was before the Sherbrooke Declaration, so that issue might not be as important as the above one. 

[lilTommy]

Two By-elections today:

Alberta = Calgary-Foothills (NDP and WR dogfight)
Ontario = Simcoe North (likely to easily go PC, but who will be second? the NDP has been polling much better since the election, but this is not traditional or relatively favourable NDP territory. The Anti-hydro privatization has been hit hard by the NDP, but is that enough to move them to second or even competitive to win? maybe and unlikely?)

[lilTommy]

QC: PQ MNA and Chief Opposition Whip Marjolain Dufour (René Lévesque) resigning for health reasons effective next week.

... that's three by-elections now in La Belle eh?

[lilTommy]

Two byelections in British Columbia yet to be called. They must be called by end of January, I believe

Vancouver--Mount Pleasant - the last stronghold of Canadian Socialism and one of the poorest areas in the country.  Also a few blocks from where I live.  The byelection was triggered by Jenny Kwan's "trip to ride the rides in Ottawa," in the words of Christy Clark

First place will probably be Melanie Mark, NDP, a youngish Nisga activist who works with the office of Children and Families.  Second place will plausibly be Peter Fry, Green, son of Hedy Fry, a prominent community activist from Strathcona who ran for the municipal Greens last year.  To my knowledge, the Liberals do not yet have a candidate, though 2001 Candidate and former Musqueam Chief Gail Sparrow has considered running.

The other is Coquitlam--Burke Mountain, where Liberal Doug Horne resigned to take up the Conservative nomination for Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam, where he was defeated by the Federal Liberals.  I don't know if anyone has been nominated here. 

I Think Coquitlam-Burke Mountain will be the interesting one, since Van-Mount Pleasant would go NDP if they ran a sign post.
The NDP have held that area while in government, and the NDP have won over more "conservative" riding's in by-elections like Port Moody-Coquitlam and Chilliwack-Hope. in 2013 the vote increased for the NDP vs 2009 while the party lost seats across the province, I feel there is an overall trend in this riding. This riding encompasses the more conservative parts of the city from what i can gather BUT as we saw with the Federal election the suburbs here voted for the Change parties (Liberals and then NDP) Recent polling I saw
http://www.insightswest.com/news/education-and-accountability-among-worst-files-for-bc-government/
from May had the NDP at 43% vs the Liberals at 37% and that was before this scandal. I'm waiting to see who the parties nominate but with the BCNDP just finishing their convention and rather confident now, this will be their target and can to some degree use resources they might have otherwise used in VMP if that riding were more competitive. Maybe even say at this point lean-NDP.

[lilTommy]

Radio-Canada has called all the races except Saint-Henri--Sainte-Anne.

Beauce-Sud (119/169)
PLQ: 51%
CAQ: 32%
PQ: 8%

Fabre (63/158)
PLQ: 46%
PQ: 28%
CAQ: 14%
QS: 6%

Rene-Levesque (100/121)
PQ: 49%
PLQ: 39%
CAQ: 6%
QS: 5%

Saint-Henri--Sainte-Anne (94/193)
PLQ: 37%
PQ: 31%
QS: 21%
CAQ: 6%

Final:

Saint-Henri--Sainte-Anne
PLQ: 38.64%
PQ: 29.89%
QS: 20.73% (beyond good result for them, almost double their best result here of 11%)
CAQ: 5.2%

Rene-Levesque
PQ: 48.97%
PLQ: 38.99%
CAQ: 5.56%
QS: 4.88%

Beauce-Sud (119/169)
PLQ: 55.9%
CAQ: 29.85%
PQ: 6.87%

Fabre (63/158)
PLQ: 43.97%
PQ: 28.63%
CAQ: 14.62%
QS: 6.45%

[lilTommy]

Final:

Saint-Henri--Sainte-Anne
PLQ: 38.64%
PQ: 29.89%
QS: 20.73% (beyond good result for them, almost double their best result here of 11%)
CAQ: 5.2%

I think this SHSA result could have some interesting long-term implications. Quebec Solidaire has already got three seats in Montreal and its no secret that the PQ under a repulsive Berlusconi-type rightwing leader like Peladeau is now a very very hard sell in places like Montreal. QS could successfully target a couple of PQ seats in areas that went NDP federallly such as Rosemont, Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Bourget etc...and pretty soon the PQ will be completely run off of the island of Montreal!

next election, with Quebec's-Berlusconi at the helm the PQ is likely to lose all those mentioned!... This has been QS's path to victory since 2008, slowly eat at PQs left-urban vote. Mercier then Gouin, and then SMSJ, all wins off of the PQ, one seat each election. I think they wrongly focused on Laurier-Dorion, they did come in second but not a close one. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve where they were only 7 points behind the PQ should be their next focus and then Laurier-Dorion and Rosemont, likely to win Hochelaga-Maissonneuve next.
Hatman has a point about voter turnout affecting the results, BUT I can see QS surpass the PQ as second place in SHSA next time.