Would Sanders win Pennsylvania?

[super6646]

I view Trump's win in PA as a bit of a fluke, along the lines of Carter carrying AL and MS in 1976.  It's not going to happen under normal circumstances.  The Democrats have to make PA their top priority, however, along with FL.

His win in Michigan was a fluke by historical standards, but his win in PA certainly was not. The state has trended towards the GOP with time, especially with the burbs remaining competitive, while western PA (with the exception of Pittsburg) having flipped to the Republicans. Romney lost the PV in 2012 by 4 points, but lost PA by about the same margin as Bush back in 2000 (the PV was within half a point that time). So yes, I think Trump could've won PA with Sanders on the ticket, but even if he didn't, the map would probably look far different than it does now (with Trump doing a lot better in the south).

[Coolface Sock #42069]

The people answering "no" here need to realize turnout would've been significantly higher among younger progressives, who effectively boycotted the election over Clinton's nomination--only 45,000 more votes for the Dems would've put them over the top, which isn't a lot in a state with PA's population.

Turnout in Philadelphia was higher in 2016 than 2012.

[Lord Admirale]

Minority turnout would go down, not to mention he lost PA pretty handily in the primary. Suburbanites wouldn't vote for Bernie, so Trump might actually perform better in PA.

[Lord Admirale]

I think yes.

The key area in PA for 2016 was the rural areas, especially the northeast. In that area, the urban centers of Scranton and Wilkes-Barre were won by the Democrats, but the rural areas were won by Republicans by huge margins. This area is dominated by white working-class voters. The final statistics showed that merely matching Obama's 2012 turnout levels in Philadelphia and surrounding areas would not have been enough for Hillary to offset Trump's gains elsewhere in the state.

Sanders would have been able to appeal to white working-class voters and millennial voters better than Hillary did. It is plausible that he could use his appeal to such groups to his advantage to at least revert Northeastern PA to Obama 2012 levels and thus flip PA to the Democrats.

You know who WWC love? An atheist socialist who hates the US and wants to take their money. It's their dream candidate. Oh, wait.

This.

Not to mention, Sanders lost many "WWC counties" to Clinton in the primary. Just look at southwest PA