How many CDs has Biden won?

[S019]

Decided to check a couple in Harris County. Biden won TX-07 by 8.5% and lost TX-02 by 2.3%.

At a glance it looks like Biden lost IL-17 - in the counties fully contained in the district, Joy King leads by 4839 votes, while Trump leads by 17370. The difference between the two (12531) is larger than the difference between Bustos' district wide lead (11326), so assuming Biden isn't doing better than Bustos in the split counties, it would appear Biden has lost the district.

Do you have a source for the TX data, I've been trying to find the data myself?

[S019]

Biden carried TX-24 by 5.4%.

What is the source for this, I'd really like the data for TX especially

[S019]

Biden carried MI-05 by 4%.

https://twitter.com/im_sorry_wtf/status/1327715755572432896

This seat was drawn as a Dem sink, with the fair redistricting maps, Kildee is done for in 2022, especially given he barely outperformed Biden

[S019]

Also given the rules in FL, you can't really cut minority seats once they exist, FL has quite strict rules which need to follow, and eliminating an existing minority seat is a no-no

[S019]

Also given the rules in FL, you can't really cut minority seats once they exist, FL has quite strict rules which need to follow, and eliminating an existing minority seat is a no-no

There are no minority seats eliminated in that map. Murphy is not a minority seat

I was referring to the suggestion of cutting Soto instead of Murphy earlier in the thread

[S019]

GA-11: Trump +14 (Trump +25 in 2016)

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1329978054681235456

PSA to the Republicans angling for 10-4 in GA. These Atlanta-Appalachia seats you keep wanting to draw have swung 10-15 points towards Biden from Clinton '16 alone, and in every single election for the past decade+, metro Atlanta has moved left. Gerrymander at your own risk!

I think the Republicans will probably cede the Gwinnett seat and try to crack Cobb, I'm genuinely not sure if it'll last the decade though.

[S019]

TX is going to be interesting in redistricting because there are so many GOPers to protect, new seats to add. They may have honestly been better off had they lost a couple this year, they can pack Austin but its really hard to see them keeping the whole delegation, adding 2 of the new 3 seats and not losing 5-7 seats if there is a Dem wave in 2026 etc.

In addition they have to decide if TX-15, 28, 34 are worth going for. All 3 are meant as D vote sinks but hard to pack them even more. If they try to make them more R, then that is fewer voters to shore up 10, 21, 25, 31. It's one of the tougher gerrymander calls out there.

Given Nehls and Van Duyne are new and probably among their weaker incumbents, I wouldn't be shocked if they just gave them swing or even leaning blue seats that they might hold for one or two cycles before they flip rather than trying to shore up both for the decade.

[S019]

TX is going to be interesting in redistricting because there are so many GOPers to protect, new seats to add. They may have honestly been better off had they lost a couple this year, they can pack Austin but its really hard to see them keeping the whole delegation, adding 2 of the new 3 seats and not losing 5-7 seats if there is a Dem wave in 2026 etc.

In addition they have to decide if TX-15, 28, 34 are worth going for. All 3 are meant as D vote sinks but hard to pack them even more. If they try to make them more R, then that is fewer voters to shore up 10, 21, 25, 31. It's one of the tougher gerrymander calls out there.

Given Nehls and Van Duyne are new and probably among their weaker incumbents, I wouldn't be shocked if they just gave them swing or even leaning blue seats that they might hold for one or two cycles before they flip rather than trying to shore up both for the decade.

That's wishful thinkings from your part, a more likely scenario is that CDs 7/32 will become D sink and that all the red seats will be shored up.

I mean you can't go for all safe seats in DFW, that metro is bluing and at a quite rapid pace, I think drawing a swingy seat that lasts part of the decade is a better trade off than going all out and risking a dummymander, you can probably get away with just ceding 7 in Houston, but idk, Crenshaw and Nehls might really be pushing it by the end of the decade.