When will the GOP win again?

[Hope For A New Era]

I'm a bit too fond of these cycle theories.

When 2020 looked like 1980, I would have said 2032, but now 2020 seems to be looking a lot more like 1896 than 1980. So...2036?

[Hope For A New Era]

I'm a bit too fond of these cycle theories.

When 2020 looked like 1980, I would have said 2032, but now 2020 seems to be looking a lot more like 1896 than 1980. So...2036?

You think the GOP is going to lose one fewer election in a row than it did after literally being blamed for the Great Depression?

When you take into account the fact that Democrats have won the popular vote in 7 of the last 8 elections, and that Texas is likely to flip during this decade and make the EC map extremely favorable to Democrats, yes.

Maybe if there's a D EV win/PV loss, there will finally be bipartisan support for abolishing the Electoral College. And the Democrats can unilaterally disarm themselves. Again.

[Hope For A New Era]

I'm a bit too fond of these cycle theories.

When 2020 looked like 1980, I would have said 2032, but now 2020 seems to be looking a lot more like 1896 than 1980. So...2036?

You think the GOP is going to lose one fewer election in a row than it did after literally being blamed for the Great Depression?

When you take into account the fact that Democrats have won the popular vote in 7 of the last 8 elections, and that Texas is likely to flip during this decade and make the EC map extremely favorable to Democrats, yes.

Maybe if there's a D EV win/PV loss, there will finally be bipartisan support for abolishing the Electoral College. And the Democrats can unilaterally disarm themselves. Again.

The fastest growing demographic in the nation and in Texas is trending Republican. Are Democrats likely to win statewide in Texas once this decade? Sure, I'll make that bet given the sheer number of statewide races taking place within the next 10 years. It is likely to remain a Republican-leaning state for some time, though, and I don't think it'll flip in a presidential election until Democrats get a significantly better national environment than 2020's (which itself is unlikely until the next GOP administration).

We don't know if the Hispanic R vote this year is a trend or a one-time event.

Even if it is a trend, they're still a D-leaning demographic, just less so, and Texas suburbs are still growing and Demifying at an extreme rate.

[Hope For A New Era]

I'm a bit too fond of these cycle theories.

When 2020 looked like 1980, I would have said 2032, but now 2020 seems to be looking a lot more like 1896 than 1980. So...2036?

Nah it looks more like 1892 than 1896

Likable, friendly, and "safe" establishment candidate running "front porch campaign" defeats fiery populist who drives massive rural support. There is major change in coalitions. Turnout is extremely high. Popular vote margin is a bit over 4 points.

Pretty clearly 1896.

[Hope For A New Era]

I'm a bit too fond of these cycle theories.

When 2020 looked like 1980, I would have said 2032, but now 2020 seems to be looking a lot more like 1896 than 1980. So...2036?

Nah it looks more like 1892 than 1896

Likable, friendly, and "safe" establishment candidate running "front porch campaign" defeats fiery populist who drives massive rural support. There is major change in coalitions. Turnout is extremely high. Popular vote margin is a bit over 4 points.

Pretty clearly 1896.

Ehh McKinley coalition didn’t change much from previous republican era coalition, he just refreshed it for a new generation.

The 1892 comparison works as democrats who had spent the 1880s making gains in republican urban areas and the demographic changes throughout the decade seemed to favor the democrats as well but in 1888 the democrats were defeated in a surprise defeat but in 1892 it looked liked democrats could finally get their chance to realign the electorate but a closer than expected victory exposed vulnerabilities.

Then in 1896 republicans were able to finally make break through with immigrant groups , plus the populist left took over the party from the Bourbon(today “neoliberal” wing) of the party but were unable to make gains with industrial workers while seeing their gains in the cities evaporate and led to a domiant republican era .

Similarly today the more “neoliberal wing” of the party seems in control but it’s pretty clear that a huge part of their base is desperate to change it and 2024 could be your 1896 where a left wing populist grabs control of the Democrats and it results in them unable to make any gains with working class voters but results them in collapsing in trending suburban areas leading to a republican led realignment.



Also turnout in 1892 was insanely high too

Good points. I guess we'll find out which it is in 2024.

[Hope For A New Era]

I'm a bit too fond of these cycle theories.

When 2020 looked like 1980, I would have said 2032, but now 2020 seems to be looking a lot more like 1896 than 1980. So...2036?

Nah it looks more like 1892 than 1896

Likable, friendly, and "safe" establishment candidate running "front porch campaign" defeats fiery populist who drives massive rural support. There is major change in coalitions. Turnout is extremely high. Popular vote margin is a bit over 4 points.

Pretty clearly 1896.

Ehh McKinley coalition didn’t change much from previous republican era coalition, he just refreshed it for a new generation.

The 1892 comparison works as democrats who had spent the 1880s making gains in republican urban areas and the demographic changes throughout the decade seemed to favor the democrats as well but in 1888 the democrats were defeated in a surprise defeat but in 1892 it looked liked democrats could finally get their chance to realign the electorate but a closer than expected victory exposed vulnerabilities.

Then in 1896 republicans were able to finally make break through with immigrant groups , plus the populist left took over the party from the Bourbon(today “neoliberal” wing) of the party but were unable to make gains with industrial workers while seeing their gains in the cities evaporate and led to a domiant republican era .

Similarly today the more “neoliberal wing” of the party seems in control but it’s pretty clear that a huge part of their base is desperate to change it and 2024 could be your 1896 where a left wing populist grabs control of the Democrats and it results in them unable to make any gains with working class voters but results them in collapsing in trending suburban areas leading to a republican led realignment.



Also turnout in 1892 was insanely high too

Good points. I guess we'll find out which it is in 2024.

Thanks, of course though it could turn out that neither 2020 or 2024 where 1896 in which case we would have to start thinking of 2008 or 2016 being the realigner

Another thing that has just occurred to me - just as the two parties split into conservatives and progressives in the 1890s, we are now seeing both parties split into populists and "the establishment." I imagine at some point in the not-too-distant future we may start seeing populists in both parties working with each other more than with their respective party establishments.

One thing that comes to mind is the "move federal things out of Washington" idea. Hawley introduced a bill to that effect in 2019, and it's something that I can see people like AOC getting behind as well.