Lisa Madigan if she wants it. I think she beats Rauner by about 7-10 points. If she doesn't run, however, Bill Daley or maybe Cheri Bustos might try running. Either would defeat Rauner.
Rumor has it that if she does not want it, Treasurer Frerichs may pursue it. Bustos is more likely to succeed Durbin as Senator. Daley may make a run for it, but he's a poor candidate.
I would also agree that Bustos will most likely wait for Durbin to retire and then run for senate instead.
She could likely clear a primary, perhaps with the exception of Bill Daley because he kind of does what he wants. Frerichs will not run if Madigan runs.
She would win in the general for sure, barring extreme circumstances. For whatever reasons, Illinois Pubs and many Dems dislike Mike Madigan but not his daughter, despite her essentially being a product of him (literally and figuratively). Those family members of mine that are Republicans dislike Mike strongly but vote for Lisa every time she is on the ballot.
That would change after some attack ads. Dems have got to have better people to run than Madigan. She is well-liked by Republicans in the state due to some good work she's done as AG (such as some major trust-busting), much as Secretary of State Jesse White is, but that'd change very quickly if she ran for governor. Republicans (and Madigan's primary opponents) would cry nepotism and corruption faster than you can say "Madigan", and in a state where we've had four recent governors go to prison (including Rod Blagojevich, who is still there), that'd go a long way, even if none of it were true.
Plus, she seems uninterested in the mudslinging that would accompany such a campaign. She would make a better fit for the Senate or a future Democratic president's cabinet.
If there is a Democratic president in 2018, I look for the election that year to be a bigger wave than 2010 or 2014, in which case Rauner could well survive this thing and may even be favored depending on the circumstances and who the Democrats nominate. He'll need to chart a path unlike what Scott Walker and Rick Snyder (and even Tom Corbett) did since he has Democratic supermajorities in both houses of the General Assembly against him. So far, he's really done all right.
One big thing to consider: 2018 is a big election in Illinois because of redistricting in 2020. A Rauner reelection would mean the end of the Madigan gerrymandering in the state legislative districts and the tumbling down of the entire working structure of the Illinois House and Senate Democrats as we know it. Rauner will no doubt run on this theme.
I can't even predict who'll end up winning that race, but I have to believe that (even though their leaders are an aging group and they underrepresented in every part of Illinois except the Chicago area) out of supermajorities in both houses of the Assembly and several statewide offices (and a sizeable majority in the US House delegation), Illinois Democrats ought to be able to find someone better than the daughter of the highly unpopular House Speaker, even if she is currently the state Attorney General.
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