Predict It Now: Illinois Gov. 2018

[Mr. Illini]

Who will be governor of Illinois after the Nov. 2018 general election?

Will be interesting to revisit this down the road.

[Mr. Illini]

Lisa Madigan if she wants it. I think she beats Rauner by about 7-10 points. If she doesn't run, however, Bill Daley or maybe Cheri Bustos might try running. Either would defeat Rauner.

Rumor has it that if she does not want it, Treasurer Frerichs may pursue it. Bustos is more likely to succeed Durbin as Senator. Daley may make a run for it, but he's a poor candidate.

[Mr. Illini]

Lisa Madigan if she wants it. I think she beats Rauner by about 7-10 points. If she doesn't run, however, Bill Daley or maybe Cheri Bustos might try running. Either would defeat Rauner.

Rumor has it that if she does not want it, Treasurer Frerichs may pursue it. Bustos is more likely to succeed Durbin as Senator. Daley may make a run for it, but he's a poor candidate.

Very good point. Seeing as you're from IL, I'm sure you are more knowledgeable about IL politics than I am. Would you say the Governor's seat would be easy for Madigan to win if she wanted it, would she be able to clear a primary? I would imagine she would be a very strong nominee and could beat Rauner.
I would also agree that Bustos will most likely wait for Durbin to retire and then run for senate instead.

She could likely clear a primary, perhaps with the exception of Bill Daley because he kind of does what he wants. Frerichs will not run if Madigan runs.

She would win in the general for sure, barring extreme circumstances. For whatever reasons, Illinois Pubs and many Dems dislike Mike Madigan but not his daughter, despite her essentially being a product of him (literally and figuratively). Those family members of mine that are Republicans dislike Mike strongly but vote for Lisa every time she is on the ballot.

[Mr. Illini]

Based on 2010 and 2014 I would predict that Lisa Madigan will not run for Gov in 2018 unless Mike Madigan steps down as Speaker. She's declined twice already for that reason, I see no reason to predict a change in her behavior going forward.

Don't you think that it is a possibility that he will retire though? He is 73 and she is in great position.

[Mr. Illini]

Well, looks like Rauner is going to win again, seeing as Quinn will be his opposition.

After four years of Rauner, even Quinn could beat him.

It's probably true, but I don't want to find out. Madigan or Frerichs must run.

[Mr. Illini]

Madigan isnt running. Mike Frerichs likely wont run if Quinn does. That leaves Vallas and Daley. And both do whatever  they want, it seems.

I strongly disagree and am wondering why you think so.

[Mr. Illini]

Maybe he will, I was just guessing since Quinn cleared the field last time, by getting Daley to dropout. But, either one wil be an improvement over Rauner.

But Quinn was also going into it as the sitting governor, no matter how unpopular.

Now he would be going in as a loser who is coming back for seconds.

[Mr. Illini]

How about Barack Obama? He will be only 57 years old.

It would probably be the biggest piece of cake in the world for him after what he has had to go through the past 7 years. He would probably even enjoy it! But he is just going to want to play golf, go to Bulls games and watch his girls grow up.

He could implement his liberal agenda at the state level without Republican opposition.

And, boy, I'd be outta here.

Bye