Gay Marriage/Civil Unions in 10 years

[JohnnyLongtorso]

What states will have gay marriage and civil unions in 10 years?

Here's my map. Red = gay marriage, blue = civil unions, gray = neither:

Vermont and New Jersey might have gay marriage too, but there might be less of a push for it due to them currently have civil unions.

No way in hell will Virginia be getting anything in the next 10 years, not without a repeal of the constitutional amendment banning anything with the word "gay" in it.

And considering it's been 10 years since Vermont became the first state to authorize civil unions (due to a court ruling), I don't think there will be a tidal wave of progress in the area of gay rights that you predict. Maybe six or seven states will add civil unions, one or two for marriage if their courts make them.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Also, Delaware's State Senate (16-5 Democratic majority) is considering a bill to ban gay marriage and civil unions. The bill is sponsored by 3 Democrats and 2 Republicans. Not looking too progressive there.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I don't mean to be a pessimist or anything, but even if it passed the Senate, Lynch will not sign it, and there is no way they can override his veto.

Governor Lynch is a centrist, but he's not a slimeball like Douglas. If it was his intent from the start to veto it, he would've said so at the start, like he has with other legislation that passed the House recently. It's more important to work on the state senate now than worry about what he does.

Also, whoever brought up Deleware, told you so.

Yeah, they voted it down, but that's still a long way from voting for civil unions/marriage.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The same-sex marriage bill was voted down in NH committee, with Democrat Deborah Reynolds voting against. That doesn't necessarily mean the bill will fail, since bills don't have to go through committee to be approved in NH, but it probably means the Senate will not take up the bill.

The folks at Blue Hampshire have a whip count going, and it's currently 8 in favor, 13 against (all 10 Republicans and 3 Democrats), and 3 undecided, so barring a miraculous revelation on the part of two Senators, it's not going to pass. Much to Governor Lynch's relief, I'm sure.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It certainly seems like the House isn't the problem in Maine, with a 2-1 Democratic majority; the Senate is a lot closer (20-15), and Baldacci is on the fence.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'm not optimistic at the odds of gay marriage overcoming a "citizen's veto". Maine only upheld an anti-discrimination statute in 2005 by a 45-55 vote.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Looking through the bios for the Nevada state legislators is entertaining, especially now that I know state Senators' hobbies include "Dutch oven cooking" and "Santa Claus collecting".