MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

[Del Tachi]

The comparisons to AL-SEN will undoubtedly continue and are appropriate, but one thing to remember about that race was that Jones had almost four months as the Democratic nominee.  That span of time was crucial for organizations like the DSCC to get organized, fundraise, and advertise on Jones' behalf.  If Presley (or another credible Dem) gets into this race and Espy doesn't step-down, the DSCC's typical position would be to stay out until a Democratic candidate makes the runoff on November 7.  3 weeks definitely isn't enough time for the DSCC to lay the same kind of ground-work they did in AL in 2017.

I'm not really sure if the DSCC would play by the same set of rules since this is such a unique occurrence, but Espy might have screwed the Dems by being the first one in the race. 

[KingSweden]

The comparisons to AL-SEN will undoubtedly continue and are appropriate, but one thing to remember about that race was that Jones had almost four months as the Democratic nominee.  That span of time was crucial for organizations like the DSCC to get organized, fundraise, and advertise on Jones' behalf.  If Presley (or another credible Dem) gets into this race and Espy doesn't step-down, the DSCC's typical position would be to stay out until a Democratic candidate makes the runoff on November 7.  3 weeks definitely isn't enough time for the DSCC to lay the same kind of ground-work they did in AL in 2017.

I'm not really sure if the DSCC would play by the same set of rules since this is such a unique occurrence, but Espy might have screwed the Dems by being the first one in the race. 

This is actually a fair point. I wonder if Presley may avoid wandering in for that reason.

[Doimper]

There's always the possibility of Presley passing on a run and Espy being the only serious Democratic candidate.

[Del Tachi]

And while Espy probably won't get the numbers with White voters that Jones was getting next door, he doesn't need them because Mississippi has a much larger Black electorate that could be especially energized in a McDaniel/Espy runoff.  That coupled with the weird runoff dynamics and the probability that the Senate majority will not be at stake when this race is decided will make for a very interesting match-up.

If Presley was in Espy's position now (only Democrat running), I'd be ready to call this one Likely/Lean D.  But Espy also has a very clear path to win, it's just narrower.

[Alabama_Indy10]

This is an absolutely terrible appointment.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

This is an absolutely terrible appointment.

Honestly, when Presley gets around to declaring, this is Lean D.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I don't think Presley will declare. We have heard no rumors about him running and there is a story out he wants to run for SOS

[Alabama_Indy10]

This is an absolutely terrible appointment.

Honestly, when Presley gets around to declaring, this is Lean D.

I agree

[DrScholl]

Presley wants to run for SoS in 2019.

That wouldn't bar him to run for this special election.

No, but there is no indication that he is interested in the Senate race and his plans seem set on SoS.

[7,052,770]

He's liked several Twitter pleas for him to run. I don't think you do that if you really aren't interested.

[Young Conservative]

Cindy Hyde-Smith can and will beat back Chris McDaniel and ultimately win the seat. From my sources, she’s well liked and intelligent. She has all the credentials needed for a race in MS: religious, conservative, and relatable. Smith is a tried and true conservative who served MS well. Chris McDaniel is an opportunistic pseudo-conservative who cares about himself more than the country.

[7,052,770]

Cindy Hyde-Smith can and will beat back Chris McDaniel and ultimately win the seat. From my sources, she’s well liked and intelligent. She has all the credentials needed for a race in MS: religious, conservative, and relatable. Smith is a tried and true conservative who served MS well. Chris McDaniel is an opportunistic pseudo-conservative who cares about himself more than the country.

Everything you said is true, except I'm not 100% sure on the first sentence. Especially if Andy Taggart stupidly butts into the race and takes Jackson area Establishment Republican votes away from her.

[Young Conservative]

Cindy Hyde-Smith can and will beat back Chris McDaniel and ultimately win the seat. From my sources, she’s well liked and intelligent. She has all the credentials needed for a race in MS: religious, conservative, and relatable. Smith is a tried and true conservative who served MS well. Chris McDaniel is an opportunistic pseudo-conservative who cares about himself more than the country.

Everything you said is true, except I'm not 100% sure on the first sentence. Especially if Andy Taggart stupidly butts into the race and takes Jackson area Establishment Republican votes away from her.

Smith will get her base from rural voters. She’s from a farming community. McDaniel is the one from Jackson.

[Dr. MB]

Cindy Hyde-Smith can and will beat back Chris McDaniel and ultimately win the seat. From my sources, she’s well liked and intelligent. She has all the credentials needed for a race in MS: religious, conservative, and relatable. Smith is a tried and true conservative who served MS well. Chris McDaniel is an opportunistic pseudo-conservative who cares about himself more than the country.

Everything you said is true, except I'm not 100% sure on the first sentence. Especially if Andy Taggart stupidly butts into the race and takes Jackson area Establishment Republican votes away from her.

Smith will get her base from rural voters. She’s from a farming community. McDaniel is the one from Jackson.

I'd think a much higher percentage of rural voters would support McDaniel than Hyde-Smith, especially in the north and south of the state.

[OneJ]

Cindy Hyde-Smith can and will beat back Chris McDaniel and ultimately win the seat. From my sources, she’s well liked and intelligent. She has all the credentials needed for a race in MS: religious, conservative, and relatable. Smith is a tried and true conservative who served MS well. Chris McDaniel is an opportunistic pseudo-conservative who cares about himself more than the country.

Everything you said is true, except I'm not 100% sure on the first sentence. Especially if Andy Taggart stupidly butts into the race and takes Jackson area Establishment Republican votes away from her.

Smith will get her base from rural voters. She’s from a farming community. McDaniel is the one from Jackson.

But McDaniel's base is actually outside of the Jackson area...just look at the 2014 results of the runoff.

[Landslide Lyndon]

He's liked several Twitter pleas for him to run. I don't think you do that if you really aren't interested.

Maybe he likes the attention. It's not like Trump is the only narcissist in American politics.

[7,052,770]

Cindy Hyde-Smith can and will beat back Chris McDaniel and ultimately win the seat. From my sources, she’s well liked and intelligent. She has all the credentials needed for a race in MS: religious, conservative, and relatable. Smith is a tried and true conservative who served MS well. Chris McDaniel is an opportunistic pseudo-conservative who cares about himself more than the country.

Everything you said is true, except I'm not 100% sure on the first sentence. Especially if Andy Taggart stupidly butts into the race and takes Jackson area Establishment Republican votes away from her.

Smith will get her base from rural voters. She’s from a farming community. McDaniel is the one from Jackson.

McDaniel is from Laurel in South Mississippi, which is only a little bit bigger than Brookhaven. McDaniel will do very well in rural areas in the Southern part of the state, and Hyde-smith should win Madison and Rankin counties if they're the only 2 credible Republican candidates.

[Doimper]

Elephant in the room: Are we sure that Presley would even make it to the runoff if he runs? Espy will probably be siphoning off a lot of the black vote.

[gerritcole]

This is an absolutely terrible appointment.

Honestly, when Presley gets around to declaring, this is Lean D.

please visit MS sometime in your life; it's not going dem

[YE]

Elephant in the room: Are we sure that Presley would even make it to the runoff if he runs? Espy will probably be siphoning off a lot of the black vote.

If he is as great of a candidate as hyped on Atlas, he will but if Presley jumps in Espy needs to get the f**k out anyway.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

This is an absolutely terrible appointment.

Honestly, when Presley gets around to declaring, this is Lean D.

please visit MS sometime in your life; it's not going dem

California coastal elites coming at Old Miss again. Y'all don't know Mississippi Values!

[7,052,770]

Elephant in the room: Are we sure that Presley would even make it to the runoff if he runs? Espy will probably be siphoning off a lot of the black vote.

No, I'm not sure of it. I think Espy will get more votes from Clinton-voters than Presley will. To make the runoff with Espy in the race, Presley will have to get a lot of votes in the Northeastern region of the state who didn't vote Hillary. To his credit, he tends to do that in his Public Service Commissioner races:


However, there's no guarantee that this will translate into success in a U.S. Senate race. But it does help that his Republican opponents are both from South Mississippi (and the other potential one is a rich #NeverTrump lawyer from Madison).

In the map I posted a few days ago, I got Presley into the mid-20s by giving him halfway between his typical level and Hillary's % in the Northern part of the state, and just the white Hillary voters + 5% of the Trump vote in the rest of the state.

[Doimper]

Elephant in the room: Are we sure that Presley would even make it to the runoff if he runs? Espy will probably be siphoning off a lot of the black vote.

No, I'm not sure of it. I think Espy will get more votes from Clinton-voters than Presley will. To make the runoff with Espy in the race, Presley will have to get a lot of votes in the Northeastern region of the state who didn't vote Hillary. To his credit, he tends to do that in his Public Service Commissioner races:


However, there's no guarantee that this will translate into success in a U.S. Senate race. But it does help that his Republican opponents are both from South Mississippi (and the other potential one is a rich #NeverTrump lawyer from Madison).

In the map I posted a few days ago, I got Presley into the mid-20s by giving him halfway between his typical level and Hillary's % in the Northern part of the state, and just the white Hillary voters + 5% of the Trump vote in the rest of the state.

The flipside of this is that an Espy vs. Presley vs. McDaniel vs. Hyde-Smith vs. Random Credible Republican jungle is probably the best way to force a D vs. D runoff (though I still wouldn't bet on it). Espy would jack up black turnout, while Presley would steal a few white voters that would've otherwise gone for McDaniel.

[DemocraticKing]

Elephant in the room: Are we sure that Presley would even make it to the runoff if he runs? Espy will probably be siphoning off a lot of the black vote.

No, I'm not sure of it. I think Espy will get more votes from Clinton-voters than Presley will. To make the runoff with Espy in the race, Presley will have to get a lot of votes in the Northeastern region of the state who didn't vote Hillary. To his credit, he tends to do that in his Public Service Commissioner races:


However, there's no guarantee that this will translate into success in a U.S. Senate race. But it does help that his Republican opponents are both from South Mississippi (and the other potential one is a rich #NeverTrump lawyer from Madison).

In the map I posted a few days ago, I got Presley into the mid-20s by giving him halfway between his typical level and Hillary's % in the Northern part of the state, and just the white Hillary voters + 5% of the Trump vote in the rest of the state.

The flipside of this is that an Espy vs. Presley vs. McDaniel vs. Hyde-Smith vs. Random Credible Republican jungle is probably the best way to force a D vs. D runoff (though I still wouldn't bet on it). Espy would jack up black turnout, while Presley would steal a few white voters that would've otherwise gone for McDaniel.

A D v D runoff in MS would be hilarious. This is non-partisan too right?

[Doimper]

Elephant in the room: Are we sure that Presley would even make it to the runoff if he runs? Espy will probably be siphoning off a lot of the black vote.

No, I'm not sure of it. I think Espy will get more votes from Clinton-voters than Presley will. To make the runoff with Espy in the race, Presley will have to get a lot of votes in the Northeastern region of the state who didn't vote Hillary. To his credit, he tends to do that in his Public Service Commissioner races:


However, there's no guarantee that this will translate into success in a U.S. Senate race. But it does help that his Republican opponents are both from South Mississippi (and the other potential one is a rich #NeverTrump lawyer from Madison).

In the map I posted a few days ago, I got Presley into the mid-20s by giving him halfway between his typical level and Hillary's % in the Northern part of the state, and just the white Hillary voters + 5% of the Trump vote in the rest of the state.

The flipside of this is that an Espy vs. Presley vs. McDaniel vs. Hyde-Smith vs. Random Credible Republican jungle is probably the best way to force a D vs. D runoff (though I still wouldn't bet on it). Espy would jack up black turnout, while Presley would steal a few white voters that would've otherwise gone for McDaniel.

A D v D runoff in MS would be hilarious. This is non-partisan too right?

Yup