Outside NC redistricting, do any seats flip D-->R?

[David Hume]

At face value this may seem statistically unlikely, but the reverse almost happened in 2020 with only one seat flipping R-->D for non-redistricting reasons; GA-07, a suburban Atlanta seat that is zooming left. The other 2 D flips were ironically from NC redistricting. Republicans were able to hold Clinton won seats many expected to flip like CA-25 and TX-23.

2018 was a blue wave and D was over stretched. 2022 was not.

There are 10 seats where R has at least 20% to flip, and 10 seats where R has at least 10% to flip. The probability of none of them flipping is (0.^10*(0.9)^10=0.037.

[David Hume]

At face value this may seem statistically unlikely, but the reverse almost happened in 2020 with only one seat flipping R-->D for non-redistricting reasons; GA-07, a suburban Atlanta seat that is zooming left. The other 2 D flips were ironically from NC redistricting. Republicans were able to hold Clinton won seats many expected to flip like CA-25 and TX-23.

2018 was a blue wave and D was over stretched. 2022 was not.

There are 10 seats where R has at least 20% to flip. The probability of none of them flipping is (0.^10*(0.9)^10=0.037.

The issue is that those are not completely independent events. If Dems hold PA-07 for instance, their chances in nearby PA-08 are also probably pretty good.

I already considered this by using probabilities like 20% and 10%. Otherwise seats like CA47 and MI07 have about 40% chance to flip.

[David Hume]

At face value this may seem statistically unlikely, but the reverse almost happened in 2020 with only one seat flipping R-->D for non-redistricting reasons; GA-07, a suburban Atlanta seat that is zooming left. The other 2 D flips were ironically from NC redistricting. Republicans were able to hold Clinton won seats many expected to flip like CA-25 and TX-23.

2018 was a blue wave and D was over stretched. 2022 was not.

There are 10 seats where R has at least 20% to flip. The probability of none of them flipping is (0.^10*(0.9)^10=0.037.

The issue is that those are not completely independent events. If Dems hold PA-07 for instance, their chances in nearby PA-08 are also probably pretty good.

I already considered this by using probabilities like 20% and 10%. Otherwise seats like CA47 and MI07 have about 40% chance to flip.

That's still not how probability works; even if you raise the base percentage, you're still treating them as independent events.

One way to think about it is if you give Biden a healthy 60% chance of winning each of the main swing states individually (AZ, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI), by your logic the chance he wins all 6 again is only 5% which is way too low. Likewise for Trump.

I know they are not completely independent. This is just a very rough estimation, since there is no way to know the conditional probabilities like P(AZ|PA) . Using the Biden example, his chance of winning each of them is about 50, since they are not independent, let's raise them to 80%, and the result is 26.2%. Not very high but still notable.