Rate KS-03

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

New, independent poll shows Welder with a substantial lead in the Democratic Primary.

Welder - 35%
Davids - 21%
Niermann - 15%
The others (Williams, McCamon, Sidie): 12%
Undecided: 17%

Tossup/Tilt R -> Tossup/Tilt DSA

You mean Tossup > Likely R.

And no, this has nothing to do with Welder being left. Welder is from Missouri and has practically zero connections to the area. We are not going to win this district with a carpetbagger from another state.

Carpetbagging has been an issue with many Democratic candidates this cycle (Ann Kirkpatrick being an egregeous example) but it hasn't really brought anyone down yet. I don't expect the same to happen to Welder.

Jon Ossoff?

His residence outside of GA-06 was a temporary residence. He grew up inside GA-06 and had plans to move back.

[ON Progressive]

New, independent poll shows Welder with a substantial lead in the Democratic Primary.

Welder - 35%
Davids - 21%
Niermann - 15%
The others (Williams, McCamon, Sidie): 12%
Undecided: 17%

Tossup/Tilt R -> Tossup/Tilt DSA

You mean Tossup > Likely R.

And no, this has nothing to do with Welder being left. Welder is from Missouri and has practically zero connections to the area. We are not going to win this district with a carpetbagger from another state.

Carpetbagging has been an issue with many Democratic candidates this cycle (Ann Kirkpatrick being an egregeous example) but it hasn't really brought anyone down yet. I don't expect the same to happen to Welder.

Kirkpatrick is at least carpetbagging within the same state. That is not remotely comparable to Welder, who is from a completely different state.

It's not even like Welder is from Kansas City (which wouldn't hurt him since KS-03 is Kansas City suburbs), he's from St. Louis!

[Jeppe]

Welder has no resume aside from a Bernie delegate & he moved from St. Louis to run for this seat. It’d be one thing if he was from Kansas City, but he moved all the way across Missouri to Kansas to run for Congress.

At least Kara Eastman had strong local roots to NE-02 & an actual biography, Welder doesn’t have either of those two things, he’s nothing but an ideological mouthpiece, and candidates should be so much more than that.

Also, that poll is an internal poll. It’s commissioned by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, which supports Welder. Him calling it “independent” is pretty deceptive.

[Virginiá]

I mean, that level of carpetbagging isn't good, but if this cycle is truly a Democratic wave, he could still win regardless of that. That is generally a hallmark of a wave- it washes in a ton of candidates both strong and weak, as the voters are essentially rejecting Trump, not Yoder. The only issue is that if Welder does turn out to be a weak candidate, he'll probably get washed out sometime in the next ~3 cycles, depending on whether Trump loses and/or how well Democrats do downballot in 2020.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lean R for now, but we'll see later.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lean R for now, but we'll see later.

[tmthforu94]

Toss-up -> Lean R if Welder wins. He is a spectacularly bad candidate for this district, which is a shame because some of the other Democratic candidates are strong and would make good representatives.

[ON Progressive]

I think Welder would lose in a wave that's realistic in its size (he'd probably still win in a D+15 wave, but a D+15 wave is almost certainly not happening).

Republicans have a massive wave in 2014, and Scott Brown still lost because he was a carpetbagger across state lines. In fact, NH was the only state where the calculation of "GCB + state partisan lean + incumbency advantage" didn't predict the winning party because he was the only US Senate nominee in a competitive state that was carpetbagging. He only outperformed Romney by about 2-3 points in a red wave in a very elastic state.

Here's some other examples:
2000 NY-Sen: Hillary Clinton (carpetbagged from Arkansas) won by 12 while Gore won by 25, doing worse than Gore by 13 points.

2014 WV-02: Alex Mooney only won a 60-38 Romney district by 4 in a Republican wave year. Moore Capito won the district by 25 for US Senate, so it was underperforming the top of the ticket by 21. In fact, in 2016, Mooney underperformed Trump by 20 as an incumbent!

2008 CA-04: Tom McClintock won by less than 0.5% in a district McCain carried by over 10 points on top of the ballot. McClintock wasn't even carpetbagging outside his state, but he still took a big penalty anyway.

I could go on with even more examples too, but I'll stop there. The fact of the manner is, carpetbagging across state lines is often worth a double digit penalty. Even waves don't prevent this from happening.

The only reason carpetbaggers across state lines sometimes win is because they're running in areas that favour their party big time in the right environment. KS-03 is not blue enough to have this happen, so Welder would almost certainly lose and lose bad.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Carpetbagging hasn't dogged the campaigns of Elissa Slotkin and Tom Malinowski, both of whom are seen as top-tier recruitments by Democrats for their districts. It's an accusation that's going to be thrown against many high-profile Democratic challengers, but I doubt it will stick.

Regardless of whether Welder, Davids or even Niermann wins the primary, this race is at least a Tossup.

[ON Progressive]

Carpetbagging hasn't dogged the campaigns of Elissa Slotkin and Tom Malinowski, both of whom are seen as top-tier recruitments by Democrats for their districts. It's an accusation that's going to be thrown against many high-profile Democratic challengers, but I doubt it will stick.

Regardless of whether Welder, Davids or even Niermann wins the primary, this race is at least a Tossup.

Both Slotkin and Malinowski grew up in their districts though.

Meanwhile, Welder literally has only lived in the district since April and came from 250 miles away from the closest point to the district in St. Louis, Missouri.

Welder would lose by at least 5, and I wouldn't be shocked if he lost by over 10.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Carpetbagging hasn't dogged the campaigns of Elissa Slotkin and Tom Malinowski, both of whom are seen as top-tier recruitments by Democrats for their districts. It's an accusation that's going to be thrown against many high-profile Democratic challengers, but I doubt it will stick.

Regardless of whether Welder, Davids or even Niermann wins the primary, this race is at least a Tossup.

Both Slotkin and Malinowski grew up in their districts though.

Meanwhile, Welder literally has only lived in the district since April and came from 250 miles away from the closest point to the district in St. Louis, Missouri.

Welder would lose by at least 5, and I wouldn't be shocked if he lost by over 10.

Do you really think the difference will matter that much that Welder loses even in the midst of a Democratic wave? He's not running in Trump country, this is a district Clinton won.

If he runs a strong grassroots campaign than it won't matter. He led Yoder by 7 points in a February PPP poll, and I doubt the race has shifted enough for him to lose. And he's not losing the general election in a cycle like 2018.

[ON Progressive]

Carpetbagging hasn't dogged the campaigns of Elissa Slotkin and Tom Malinowski, both of whom are seen as top-tier recruitments by Democrats for their districts. It's an accusation that's going to be thrown against many high-profile Democratic challengers, but I doubt it will stick.

Regardless of whether Welder, Davids or even Niermann wins the primary, this race is at least a Tossup.

Both Slotkin and Malinowski grew up in their districts though.

Meanwhile, Welder literally has only lived in the district since April and came from 250 miles away from the closest point to the district in St. Louis, Missouri.

Welder would lose by at least 5, and I wouldn't be shocked if he lost by over 10.

Do you really think the difference will matter that much that Welder loses even in the midst of a Democratic wave? He's not running in Trump country, this is a district Clinton won.

If he runs a strong grassroots campaign than it won't matter. He led Yoder by 7 points in a February PPP poll, and I doubt the race has shifted enough for him to lose. And he's not losing the general election in a cycle like 2018.

Senator Scott Brown (R-NH) agrees that carpetbagging doesn't lead to losses even in wave elections in purple areas.

[Virginiá]

Ok, well, it's pretty clear there is some disagreement on the exact political penalties carpetbagging causes.

What is Welder's fundraising like?

[Chief Justice Keef]

Carpetbagging hasn't dogged the campaigns of Elissa Slotkin and Tom Malinowski, both of whom are seen as top-tier recruitments by Democrats for their districts. It's an accusation that's going to be thrown against many high-profile Democratic challengers, but I doubt it will stick.

Regardless of whether Welder, Davids or even Niermann wins the primary, this race is at least a Tossup.

Both Slotkin and Malinowski grew up in their districts though.

Meanwhile, Welder literally has only lived in the district since April and came from 250 miles away from the closest point to the district in St. Louis, Missouri.

Welder would lose by at least 5, and I wouldn't be shocked if he lost by over 10.

Do you really think the difference will matter that much that Welder loses even in the midst of a Democratic wave? He's not running in Trump country, this is a district Clinton won.

If he runs a strong grassroots campaign than it won't matter. He led Yoder by 7 points in a February PPP poll, and I doubt the race has shifted enough for him to lose. And he's not losing the general election in a cycle like 2018.

Senator Scott Brown (R-NH) agrees that carpetbagging doesn't lead to losses even in wave elections in purple areas.

Scott Brown wasn't leading in any polls in his race against Shaheen. Welder has led in polls against Yoder. Don't be daft.

[Zaybay]

Carpetbagging hasn't dogged the campaigns of Elissa Slotkin and Tom Malinowski, both of whom are seen as top-tier recruitments by Democrats for their districts. It's an accusation that's going to be thrown against many high-profile Democratic challengers, but I doubt it will stick.

Regardless of whether Welder, Davids or even Niermann wins the primary, this race is at least a Tossup.

Both Slotkin and Malinowski grew up in their districts though.

Meanwhile, Welder literally has only lived in the district since April and came from 250 miles away from the closest point to the district in St. Louis, Missouri.

Welder would lose by at least 5, and I wouldn't be shocked if he lost by over 10.

Do you really think the difference will matter that much that Welder loses even in the midst of a Democratic wave? He's not running in Trump country, this is a district Clinton won.

If he runs a strong grassroots campaign than it won't matter. He led Yoder by 7 points in a February PPP poll, and I doubt the race has shifted enough for him to lose. And he's not losing the general election in a cycle like 2018.

Senator Scott Brown (R-NH) agrees that carpetbagging doesn't lead to losses even in wave elections in purple areas.

NH has one of the best D parties in the world, and has also voted D in 2010 and 2016, largely neutral or R waves in "purple" NH. Scott Brown was a poor candidate and was not able to beat the incredibly popular senator. A carpetbagging is not as much a downer in GEs, its a downer in primaries.

[ON Progressive]

Carpetbagging hasn't dogged the campaigns of Elissa Slotkin and Tom Malinowski, both of whom are seen as top-tier recruitments by Democrats for their districts. It's an accusation that's going to be thrown against many high-profile Democratic challengers, but I doubt it will stick.

Regardless of whether Welder, Davids or even Niermann wins the primary, this race is at least a Tossup.

Both Slotkin and Malinowski grew up in their districts though.

Meanwhile, Welder literally has only lived in the district since April and came from 250 miles away from the closest point to the district in St. Louis, Missouri.

Welder would lose by at least 5, and I wouldn't be shocked if he lost by over 10.

Do you really think the difference will matter that much that Welder loses even in the midst of a Democratic wave? He's not running in Trump country, this is a district Clinton won.

If he runs a strong grassroots campaign than it won't matter. He led Yoder by 7 points in a February PPP poll, and I doubt the race has shifted enough for him to lose. And he's not losing the general election in a cycle like 2018.

Senator Scott Brown (R-NH) agrees that carpetbagging doesn't lead to losses even in wave elections in purple areas.

Scott Brown wasn't leading in any polls in his race against Shaheen. Welder has led in polls against Yoder. Don't be daft.

Literally a single poll with a sample size of only 315 that was commissioned on behalf of a PAC that supports Welder. Also, it's 6 months old. I guarantee Welder's percentages would tank the second "WELDER IS FROM SAINT LOUIS" went on the airwaves.

Also, Brown was the only US Senate candidate in either party that lost despite fundamentals. Like I said earlier, if you do the calculation "GCB + state partisan lean + incumbency advantage" for 2014, Republicans should have won New Hampshire.

Instead, they lost it. Why? Because Brown was a carpetbagger across state lines.

Carpetbagging hasn't dogged the campaigns of Elissa Slotkin and Tom Malinowski, both of whom are seen as top-tier recruitments by Democrats for their districts. It's an accusation that's going to be thrown against many high-profile Democratic challengers, but I doubt it will stick.

Regardless of whether Welder, Davids or even Niermann wins the primary, this race is at least a Tossup.

Both Slotkin and Malinowski grew up in their districts though.

Meanwhile, Welder literally has only lived in the district since April and came from 250 miles away from the closest point to the district in St. Louis, Missouri.

Welder would lose by at least 5, and I wouldn't be shocked if he lost by over 10.

Do you really think the difference will matter that much that Welder loses even in the midst of a Democratic wave? He's not running in Trump country, this is a district Clinton won.

If he runs a strong grassroots campaign than it won't matter. He led Yoder by 7 points in a February PPP poll, and I doubt the race has shifted enough for him to lose. And he's not losing the general election in a cycle like 2018.

Senator Scott Brown (R-NH) agrees that carpetbagging doesn't lead to losses even in wave elections in purple areas.

NH has one of the best D parties in the world, and has also voted D in 2010 and 2016, largely neutral or R waves in "purple" NH. Scott Brown was a poor candidate and was not able to beat the incredibly popular senator. A carpetbagging is not as much a downer in GEs, its a downer in primaries.

NH didn't vote D in 2010, and only went Dem by ~1000 votes in 2016. While NH's Dem Party isn't bad, calling them "one of the best" is incorrect. It makes zero sense to call a state party which controls neither state legislative chamber in a purple state a strong state party (granted, the NH State House will almost certainly fall to the Democrats).

As for why Brown was a poor candidate, I wonder why he was poor. Maybe it had to do with *gasps* the fact he was a former Senator from Massachusetts that was running in New Hampshire?

[Chief Justice Keef]

Carpetbagging hasn't dogged the campaigns of Elissa Slotkin and Tom Malinowski, both of whom are seen as top-tier recruitments by Democrats for their districts. It's an accusation that's going to be thrown against many high-profile Democratic challengers, but I doubt it will stick.

Regardless of whether Welder, Davids or even Niermann wins the primary, this race is at least a Tossup.

Both Slotkin and Malinowski grew up in their districts though.

Meanwhile, Welder literally has only lived in the district since April and came from 250 miles away from the closest point to the district in St. Louis, Missouri.

Welder would lose by at least 5, and I wouldn't be shocked if he lost by over 10.

Do you really think the difference will matter that much that Welder loses even in the midst of a Democratic wave? He's not running in Trump country, this is a district Clinton won.

If he runs a strong grassroots campaign than it won't matter. He led Yoder by 7 points in a February PPP poll, and I doubt the race has shifted enough for him to lose. And he's not losing the general election in a cycle like 2018.

Senator Scott Brown (R-NH) agrees that carpetbagging doesn't lead to losses even in wave elections in purple areas.

Scott Brown wasn't leading in any polls in his race against Shaheen. Welder has led in polls against Yoder. Don't be daft.

Literally a single poll with a sample size of only 315 that was commissioned on behalf of a PAC that supports Welder. Also, it's 6 months old. I guarantee Welder's percentages would tank the second "WELDER IS FROM SAINT LOUIS" went on the airwaves.

1. Again, Leonard Lance made the same attack line against Tom Malinowski in NJ-07 and that hasn't slowed down the latter one bit.

2. If Brown was uniquely bad for his carpetbagging issues despite the 2014 red wave, than Maggie Hassan would've lost to Walt Havenstein in the gubernatorial race and Annie Kuster might've lost to Marilinda Garcia as well in NH-2. But as Zaybay mentioned, the Democratic Party in NH is one of the strongest in the US. Compare that to the Kansas GOP, which is in a historically weak position.

[ON Progressive]

Carpetbagging hasn't dogged the campaigns of Elissa Slotkin and Tom Malinowski, both of whom are seen as top-tier recruitments by Democrats for their districts. It's an accusation that's going to be thrown against many high-profile Democratic challengers, but I doubt it will stick.

Regardless of whether Welder, Davids or even Niermann wins the primary, this race is at least a Tossup.

Both Slotkin and Malinowski grew up in their districts though.

Meanwhile, Welder literally has only lived in the district since April and came from 250 miles away from the closest point to the district in St. Louis, Missouri.

Welder would lose by at least 5, and I wouldn't be shocked if he lost by over 10.

Do you really think the difference will matter that much that Welder loses even in the midst of a Democratic wave? He's not running in Trump country, this is a district Clinton won.

If he runs a strong grassroots campaign than it won't matter. He led Yoder by 7 points in a February PPP poll, and I doubt the race has shifted enough for him to lose. And he's not losing the general election in a cycle like 2018.

Senator Scott Brown (R-NH) agrees that carpetbagging doesn't lead to losses even in wave elections in purple areas.

Scott Brown wasn't leading in any polls in his race against Shaheen. Welder has led in polls against Yoder. Don't be daft.

Literally a single poll with a sample size of only 315 that was commissioned on behalf of a PAC that supports Welder. Also, it's 6 months old. I guarantee Welder's percentages would tank the second "WELDER IS FROM SAINT LOUIS" went on the airwaves.

1. Again, Leonard Lance made the same attack line against Tom Malinowski in NJ-07 and that hasn't slowed down the latter one bit.

2. If Brown was uniquely bad for his carpetbagging issues despite the 2014 red wave, than Maggie Hassan would've lost to Walt Havenstein in the gubernatorial race and Annie Kuster might've lost to Marilinda Garcia as well in NH-2. But as Zaybay mentioned, the Democratic Party in NH is one of the strongest in the US. Compare that to the Kansas GOP, which is in a historically weak position.

1. If you would read my earlier post, you'd recognize that Malinowski GREW UP in NJ-07. That makes the carpetbagging attack way less effective. Welder was born and raised in Iowa, was a Bernie delegate from Missouri, and moved into the district in April.

2. Hassan had been in NH since 1999 at least (and probably even earlier, she worked for Boston law firms since the 80s but a lot of people commute from NH to Boston). She was also an incumbent governor in 2014, and running for a second term (which since NH has 2 year terms made her a favourite anyway).

As for Kuster, she was born and raised in New Hampshire. Calling her a carpetbagger is absurd. Even if it was from NH-01 to NH-02, that's not nearly as blatant as crossing state lines. Especially not really blatant because NH is quite small.

[Zaybay]

Carpetbagging hasn't dogged the campaigns of Elissa Slotkin and Tom Malinowski, both of whom are seen as top-tier recruitments by Democrats for their districts. It's an accusation that's going to be thrown against many high-profile Democratic challengers, but I doubt it will stick.

Regardless of whether Welder, Davids or even Niermann wins the primary, this race is at least a Tossup.

Both Slotkin and Malinowski grew up in their districts though.

Meanwhile, Welder literally has only lived in the district since April and came from 250 miles away from the closest point to the district in St. Louis, Missouri.

Welder would lose by at least 5, and I wouldn't be shocked if he lost by over 10.

Do you really think the difference will matter that much that Welder loses even in the midst of a Democratic wave? He's not running in Trump country, this is a district Clinton won.

If he runs a strong grassroots campaign than it won't matter. He led Yoder by 7 points in a February PPP poll, and I doubt the race has shifted enough for him to lose. And he's not losing the general election in a cycle like 2018.

Senator Scott Brown (R-NH) agrees that carpetbagging doesn't lead to losses even in wave elections in purple areas.

Scott Brown wasn't leading in any polls in his race against Shaheen. Welder has led in polls against Yoder. Don't be daft.

Literally a single poll with a sample size of only 315 that was commissioned on behalf of a PAC that supports Welder. Also, it's 6 months old. I guarantee Welder's percentages would tank the second "WELDER IS FROM SAINT LOUIS" went on the airwaves.

Also, Brown was the only US Senate candidate in either party that lost despite fundamentals. Like I said earlier, if you do the calculation "GCB + state partisan lean + incumbency advantage" for 2014, Republicans should have won New Hampshire.

Instead, they lost it. Why? Because Brown was a carpetbagger across state lines.

Carpetbagging hasn't dogged the campaigns of Elissa Slotkin and Tom Malinowski, both of whom are seen as top-tier recruitments by Democrats for their districts. It's an accusation that's going to be thrown against many high-profile Democratic challengers, but I doubt it will stick.

Regardless of whether Welder, Davids or even Niermann wins the primary, this race is at least a Tossup.

Both Slotkin and Malinowski grew up in their districts though.

Meanwhile, Welder literally has only lived in the district since April and came from 250 miles away from the closest point to the district in St. Louis, Missouri.

Welder would lose by at least 5, and I wouldn't be shocked if he lost by over 10.

Do you really think the difference will matter that much that Welder loses even in the midst of a Democratic wave? He's not running in Trump country, this is a district Clinton won.

If he runs a strong grassroots campaign than it won't matter. He led Yoder by 7 points in a February PPP poll, and I doubt the race has shifted enough for him to lose. And he's not losing the general election in a cycle like 2018.

Senator Scott Brown (R-NH) agrees that carpetbagging doesn't lead to losses even in wave elections in purple areas.

NH has one of the best D parties in the world, and has also voted D in 2010 and 2016, largely neutral or R waves in "purple" NH. Scott Brown was a poor candidate and was not able to beat the incredibly popular senator. A carpetbagging is not as much a downer in GEs, its a downer in primaries.

NH didn't vote D in 2010, and only went Dem by ~1000 votes in 2016. While NH's Dem Party isn't bad, calling them "one of the best" is incorrect. It makes zero sense to call a state party which controls neither state legislative chamber in a purple state a strong state party (granted, the NH State House will almost certainly fall to the Democrats).

As for why Brown was a poor candidate, I wonder why he was poor. Maybe it had to do with *gasps* the fact he was a former Senator from Massachusetts that was running in New Hampshire?

I was talking about the governorship, not the senate. And Brown was a poor candidate not because of his carpetbagging, in fact, many supported him because of this(many Rs in NH are used to be MAs). Instead, it was his lack of knowledge of the state and its issues, as he came off as knowledgeable and stuck up. He failed both debates, and lost much of his "poor working class" charm. Welder, on the other hand, has done well in KS, and knows the problems it faces. Theres a large difference between someone like Morissley, who carpetbagged and is out of touch with the state, and someone like Welder, who actually cares about the issues and understands the problems the people face.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Carpetbagging hasn't dogged the campaigns of Elissa Slotkin and Tom Malinowski, both of whom are seen as top-tier recruitments by Democrats for their districts. It's an accusation that's going to be thrown against many high-profile Democratic challengers, but I doubt it will stick.

Regardless of whether Welder, Davids or even Niermann wins the primary, this race is at least a Tossup.

Both Slotkin and Malinowski grew up in their districts though.

Meanwhile, Welder literally has only lived in the district since April and came from 250 miles away from the closest point to the district in St. Louis, Missouri.

Welder would lose by at least 5, and I wouldn't be shocked if he lost by over 10.

Do you really think the difference will matter that much that Welder loses even in the midst of a Democratic wave? He's not running in Trump country, this is a district Clinton won.

If he runs a strong grassroots campaign than it won't matter. He led Yoder by 7 points in a February PPP poll, and I doubt the race has shifted enough for him to lose. And he's not losing the general election in a cycle like 2018.

Senator Scott Brown (R-NH) agrees that carpetbagging doesn't lead to losses even in wave elections in purple areas.

Scott Brown wasn't leading in any polls in his race against Shaheen. Welder has led in polls against Yoder. Don't be daft.

Literally a single poll with a sample size of only 315 that was commissioned on behalf of a PAC that supports Welder. Also, it's 6 months old. I guarantee Welder's percentages would tank the second "WELDER IS FROM SAINT LOUIS" went on the airwaves.

1. Again, Leonard Lance made the same attack line against Tom Malinowski in NJ-07 and that hasn't slowed down the latter one bit.

2. If Brown was uniquely bad for his carpetbagging issues despite the 2014 red wave, than Maggie Hassan would've lost to Walt Havenstein in the gubernatorial race and Annie Kuster might've lost to Marilinda Garcia as well in NH-2. But as Zaybay mentioned, the Democratic Party in NH is one of the strongest in the US. Compare that to the Kansas GOP, which is in a historically weak position.

1. If you would read my earlier post, you'd recognize that Malinowski GREW UP in NJ-07. That makes the carpetbagging attack way less effective. Welder was born and raised in Iowa, was a Bernie delegate from Missouri, and moved into the district in April.

2. Hassan had been in NH since 1999 at least (and probably even earlier, she worked for Boston law firms since the 80s but a lot of people commute from NH to Boston). She was also an incumbent governor in 2014, and running for a second term (which since NH has 2 year terms made her a favourite anyway).

As for Kuster, she was born and raised in New Hampshire. Calling her a carpetbagger is absurd. Even if it was from NH-01 to NH-02, that's not nearly as blatant as crossing state lines. Especially not really blatant because NH is quite small.

1. That distinction doesn't matter. Both Republicans are saying "THEY DON'T LIVE IN THE DISTRICT" and the line hasn't stuck.

2. That wasn't my point. My point was that if Brown's carpetbagging was a unique problem, we would've seen other GOP candidates win against Democratic incumbents in New Hampshire. But Brown lost to Shaheen by nearly the same amount Havenstein lost to Hassan. The red wave didn't strike in New Hampshire because of the NH Dems' strengths and the NH GOP's weaknesses. There wasn't a red wave that Brown was left out of specifically because of carpetbagging issues.

[kcguy]

2. If Brown was uniquely bad for his carpetbagging issues despite the 2014 red wave, than Maggie Hassan would've lost to Walt Havenstein in the gubernatorial race and Annie Kuster might've lost to Marilinda Garcia as well in NH-2. But as Zaybay mentioned, the Democratic Party in NH is one of the strongest in the US. Compare that to the Kansas GOP, which is in a historically weak position.

The Kansas GOP is in an historically weak position?  Not especially.

Since the days of JFK, the Democrats have gained this seat exactly once, in 1998.  That was the year the GOP seemed to be literally tearing itself apart, with the incumbent Republican governor facing a primary challenge from the state party chair and the freshman congressman in the 3rd district seeming to support the losing side.  Meanwhile the Democrats nominated Dennis Moore, a former Johnson County officeholder with an established track record.  Yard signs for Moore showed up in the same yard as signs for the Republican governor, and Moore managed a narrow 3-point win.  (Rumor has it that when Congressman Snowbarger's loss became known at the Republicans' election night victory party in Topeka, there were mutterings of "Good, he had it coming.")

Republicans may be unpopular this year, even somewhat here in Kansas, but the atmosphere is nothing like that.  Yoder is perceived as a bit of an opportunist, and he doesn't have a lot of friends, but he hasn't made a lot of enemies either.  It's always possible something could happen to make the atmosphere toxic for the GOP--Kris Kobach is on the ballot, after all--but I don't think it's happened yet.  This may be a district that Hillary Clinton won by 1 point, but it's also a district that Mitt Romney won by 8.

Yoder could theoretically lose if all the stars aligned perfectly for the Democrats.  Having someone easy to caricature, like Brent Welder, as their nominee is not an ingredient for the stars aligning perfectly.

(Then again, you can't rule out flukes--I never expected Jim Leach's loss in 2006 or Rick Boucher's in 2010.)

[Virginiá]

The problem for Democrats is that even as badly as a Republican governor has messed up Kansas, and even as big of a drag Trump is on the GOP brand in elections held during his tenure, once Trump leaves, and once Kansas sees some turnover in political control and sane politicians mostly stabilize their finances, Republicans will continue performing decently there. Look at how fast Democrats surged after Trump won in 2016. Before that day, they couldn't seem to stop getting crushed in midterms.

Never underestimate the electorate's ability to snap back to their previous voting habits once the pressure is relieved a bit.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Tossup. Possibly Lean R though if Welder's the D nominee.