Lending more credibility to Keystone Phil's anecdotes.

[Keystone Phil]

I'll just use this thread for random anecdotal evidence...

I visited my Grandparents tonight. My Grandmother was telling me about a certain someone she is friendly with who stopped to talk to her at a local diner. All I'll say about this certain someone is that he or she is a major Democratic ward leader here in the NE Philly and this person also holds elected office.

The person asked my Grandmother, "So be honest. Who do you want?" My Grandmother told her that she's for McCain. The Democratic ward leader responded, "I wish there were more people like you."

Interesting. Anecdotal evidence that Dem ward leaders in North Philly wanted to make a deal with the McCain campaign, hoping to be kingmakers by delivering Dem votes for him, but there weren't enough people like your grandmother to make it work. Sounds like that guy was happy to find someone who agreed with him and had heard "Obama" too many times.

First off, it's NE Philly. Secondly, it's not necessarily a "him." Finally, the ward leader may be looking to the polls too much (which explains the "I wish there were more people like you" line).

Funny that we're talking about that ward leader. That ward leader is the Democratic ward leader of my ward. And that has to do with what I saw today...

As I was leaving mass, I saw an Obama canvasser walking around. I decided to take a drive and noticed several of them walking around. They were bringing people in by vans. I went home and noticed that they had hit my area (and got up a few signs. I think McCain still has the edge in my division but it's close). That type of stuff only motivates me. I dropped 95% of my precinct (which is rather big by Philly standards) with McCain door knockers in an hour and a half with the help of a friend. We then went out to the Montco HQs and helped out there a bit. The reason why this is connected to that ward leader is because the Obama folks must know that they're not getting any help from the leader/committeepeople. That's a problem.

[NOVA Green]

I'll just use this thread for random anecdotal evidence...

I visited my Grandparents tonight. My Grandmother was telling me about a certain someone she is friendly with who stopped to talk to her at a local diner. All I'll say about this certain someone is that he or she is a major Democratic ward leader here in the NE Philly and this person also holds elected office.

The person asked my Grandmother, "So be honest. Who do you want?" My Grandmother told her that she's for McCain. The Democratic ward leader responded, "I wish there were more people like you."

Interesting. Anecdotal evidence that Dem ward leaders in North Philly wanted to make a deal with the McCain campaign, hoping to be kingmakers by delivering Dem votes for him, but there weren't enough people like your grandmother to make it work. Sounds like that guy was happy to find someone who agreed with him and had heard "Obama" too many times.

First off, it's NE Philly. Secondly, it's not necessarily a "him." Finally, the ward leader may be looking to the polls too much (which explains the "I wish there were more people like you" line).

Funny that we're talking about that ward leader. That ward leader is the Democratic ward leader of my ward. And that has to do with what I saw today...

As I was leaving mass, I saw an Obama canvasser walking around. I decided to take a drive and noticed several of them walking around. They were bringing people in by vans. I went home and noticed that they had hit my area (and got up a few signs. I think McCain still has the edge in my division but it's close). That type of stuff only motivates me. I dropped 95% of my precinct (which is rather big by Philly standards) with McCain door knockers in an hour and a half with the help of a friend. We then went out to the Montco HQs and helped out there a bit. The reason why this is connected to that ward leader is because the Obama folks must know that they're not getting any help from the leader/committeepeople. That's a problem.

Any of that have to do with the "street money" situation? Will it help in NE Philly to actually have some local boots on the ground, rather than people bused in from NJ and NY?

[Keystone Phil]

Any of that have to do with the "street money" situation? Will it help in NE Philly to actually have some local boots on the ground, rather than people bused in from NJ and NY?

Some of it is connected to the street money problem. However, please recall that the ward leader I mentioned is also an elected official. This person's district (except for some black areas) is not an Obama area at all and yes, it's based mostly on race. Plus, Obama is just not the same type of Democrat as this person.

Yes, it always helps to have the local people on the ground. Obama relying on people outside of the area shows the obvious disconnect. Plenty of Democratic commiteepeople want nothing to do with Obama and that includes not voting for him and, in some situations, helping McCain.

[Barack Hussian YO MAMA!!!!]

Phil... I like you... but I just can't agree with you on PA.

It's not a 100% futile effort for McCain to be in PA because there could be other factors that tighten the race nationally... but if he is siphoning resources to PA when Obama has a significant lead in the polls while starving places like Florida and Virginia, he loses the election.

Again, it could tighten... there's time... and at this point he doesn't have anything to lose by focusing on PA rather than defending FL and VA (offense is always a better game when you have nothing to lose)... but still, I'm pretty optimistic that it wont.

yeah but Mccain doesn't have any real options but to play in PA, in all likely hood he is not going to hold on to all the Bush states even if some how some way he gets back in this race, he needs to win in a state like PA, unless he won't win. 

[Brittain33]

Yes, it always helps to have the local people on the ground. Obama relying on people outside of the area shows the obvious disconnect. Plenty of Democratic commiteepeople want nothing to do with Obama and that includes not voting for him and, in some situations, helping McCain.

I would never dispute your statements about what you've seen and heard. I am sure that there are local Democratic leaders in Northeast (sorry) Philly who decided earlier in the year not to help the Obama campaign, probably hoping to tip the state to McCain if the race were close and they got backup from voters, and who as of now see no reason to change their minds even though McCain won't win the state, so are sitting on their hands. So Obama's bringing his own people in. 

I've seen this dynamic in statewide races in Massachusetts, so I won't deny it. Some times it works, as in '98. Some times it never gets off the ground, as in '06.

The question is, and I think the question always has been when you've mentioned the political situation in NE Philly, so what? How many votes are we talking about here, total? Can you put a number on it?

We've got the polls. I think the fact that these people aren't going public with their lack of support, and that this guy is disappointed more people aren't like your grandmother, indicates that the machine is not functioning the way a machine moved in the 1950s in Chicago, where it could really deliver the votes. The biggest thing these guys can do is sit on their hands and quietly support McCain.

As you've said, the result is that Obama has had to invest extra resources in the area and make an end run around the establishment. This is not ideal. In the long run, though, I have to say, big whoop. It's still better than making no contacts at all. Obama does not lack for money and he absolutely does not lack for volunteers from the northeast who need somewhere useful to go. These people are going to door-to-door and make the case for Obama.

If all of the voters there are in touch with the organization and against Obama, we'll see that on Election Day. However, I think that it takes a leap of faith to go from this local political scrum you're discussing to actual banked votes for McCain over Obama beyond what the polls are showing.

I'd like to hear you put a number on this, based on the Kerry totals. How much is Obama going to underperform Kerry in Northeast Philly in terms of a winning margin? What wards define northeast Philly, what were the numbers in '04, and what is your best guess how they will turn out in '08? I'm really curious, sincerely, because you know the area and all I have is my bird's eye view of state polls and whatever I can look up in an almanac for city-wide results.

[NOVA Green]

Any of that have to do with the "street money" situation? Will it help in NE Philly to actually have some local boots on the ground, rather than people bused in from NJ and NY?

Some of it is connected to the street money problem. However, please recall that the ward leader I mentioned is also an elected official. This person's district (except for some black areas) is not an Obama area at all and yes, it's based mostly on race. Plus, Obama is just not the same type of Democrat as this person.

Yes, it always helps to have the local people on the ground. Obama relying on people outside of the area shows the obvious disconnect. Plenty of Democratic commiteepeople want nothing to do with Obama and that includes not voting for him and, in some situations, helping McCain.

Do you think Obama will be forced to spend street money if PA internals start tightening to the 4-5 point range by the end of next week? Although if there is as much antipathy towards Obama in a few of these wards you are talking about, including amongst local elected Dem officials, would it even help?

[Politico]

I find it hard to believe racist Democrats in NE Philly will vote McCain, who voted with Bush over 90% of the time. I'd say they are far more likely to not vote for anybody at the top of the ballot than they are to vote for McCain.

[Keystone Phil]

Do you think Obama will be forced to spend street money if PA internals start tightening to the 4-5 point range by the end of next week? Although if there is as much antipathy towards Obama in a few of these wards you are talking about, including amongst local elected Dem officials, would it even help?

I don't think it matters at this point. The disconnect has always been there. Talking away street money just made it worse.

I find it hard to believe racist Democrats in NE Philly will vote McCain, who voted with Bush over 90% of the time. I'd say they are far more likely to not vote for anybody at the top of the ballot than they are to vote for McCain.

Not voting for anyone for President is almost just as awesome for McCain. I'll take it.

[J. J.]

Okay, I saw something like that too in North Phila.  They were out yesterday and today.  The Caucasian populating of my neighborhood quadrupled during that time.  This is a heavily Democratic and black area.   They are not using the locals.

[Politico]

I find it hard to believe racist Democrats in NE Philly will vote McCain, who voted with Bush over 90% of the time. I'd say they are far more likely to not vote for anybody at the top of the ballot than they are to vote for McCain.

Not voting for anyone for President is almost just as awesome for McCain. I'll take it.

Things are so bad in the country today I say even rabid racists are most likely to hold their nose and vote Obama as opposed to voting for McCain or other/nobody.

Almost every single eligible black voter in Philadephia is going to vote Obama. That will make up for any lost votes among racist Democrats. I still suspect Obama will do at least as well in Philly as Gore did, which is more than enough to give him the state.

[Keystone Phil]

Okay, I saw something like that too in North Phila.  They were out yesterday and today.  The Caucasian populating of my neighborhood quadrupled during that time.  This is a heavily Democratic and black area.   They are not using the locals.

J.J., in all honesty, that doesn't matter there. At all. Obama is going to have insane turnout in North Philly and the other black areas. Go to the neighborhood immediately south of Temple. Almost literally every house has at least one Obama sign on their front lawn or in their window.

[Keystone Phil]

I obviously will be very busy this weekend with McCain stuff. I did a few lit drops today and was very well received. The best comment came from a guy who claimed to be a "union official." He said he was for McCain but said, "Don't tell anyone I said that."

As I mentioned elsewhere, the Obama people had people everywhere but we at least cancelled out their work in the areas that I hit. The McCain campaign also had loads of people out as well. I'll be doing more tomorrow and some Monday late into the night.

[cinyc]

What does Biden's last rally being held in Marconi Plaza tell you about the race in Philadelphia?

[Keystone Phil]

What does Biden's last rally being held in Marconi Plaza tell you about the race in Philadelphia?

Nothing really. It's a heavily populated area of a swing state very close to his home state. Though, the Obama campaign is certainly worried about South Philly. McCain is going to do well down there and that's going to hurt them. Again, I don't think this is the reason why they're having Biden's final rally there though.

[Keystone Phil]

I can't believe that I forgot the funniest part of the day!

I had to head down to the NE Philly HQs to pick up some new McCain door hangers for Election day GOTV. The HQs is right off of Frankford and Cottman Avenues - the Times Square of NE Philly. Standing on the sidewalk in our Times Square are a bunch of McCain volunteers with tons of signs. The reception was awesome but that's not the point; the point is who was waving these signs. There were about four people there that were Democrats for McCain. One of them was a Jewish boy from NJ, a Jewish guy from the south and two girls from NY. Oh...yeah...two black girls. They were all Hillary people so I was thrilled to see them come out for McCain. I, of course, had to yell "Party Unity My Ass!" They loved it. They also claimed that CNN was there minutes before I arrived. I highly doubt that but if anyone saw anything on CNN about NE Philly, let me know.

[J. J.]

Okay, I saw something like that too in North Phila.  They were out yesterday and today.  The Caucasian populating of my neighborhood quadrupled during that time.  This is a heavily Democratic and black area.   They are not using the locals.

J.J., in all honesty, that doesn't matter there. At all. Obama is going to have insane turnout in North Philly and the other black areas. Go to the neighborhood immediately south of Temple. Almost literally every house has at least one Obama sign on their front lawn or in their window.

Those people that vote will, but how many people will vote?  Committee people can turn out some votes, and they are not on board.

[NOVA Green]

I can't believe that I forgot the funniest part of the day!

I had to head down to the NE Philly HQs to pick up some new McCain door hangers for Election day GOTV. The HQs is right off of Frankford and Cottman Avenues - the Times Square of NE Philly. Standing on the sidewalk in our Times Square are a bunch of McCain volunteers with tons of signs. The reception was awesome but that's not the point; the point is who was waving these signs. There were about four people there that were Democrats for McCain. One of them was a Jewish boy from NJ, a Jewish guy from the south and two girls from NY. Oh...yeah...two black girls. They were all Hillary people so I was thrilled to see them come out for McCain. I, of course, had to yell "Party Unity My Ass!" They loved it. They also claimed that CNN was there minutes before I arrived. I highly doubt that but if anyone saw anything on CNN about NE Philly, let me know.

Get laid tonight?

Just kidding, but congrats on the enthusiasm... it's been quite a few years since I felt energetic enough to actually participate in campaigning, and honestly I appreciate your drive (even though you are on the wrong side on this one

[Keystone Phil]

Okay, I saw something like that too in North Phila.  They were out yesterday and today.  The Caucasian populating of my neighborhood quadrupled during that time.  This is a heavily Democratic and black area.   They are not using the locals.

J.J., in all honesty, that doesn't matter there. At all. Obama is going to have insane turnout in North Philly and the other black areas. Go to the neighborhood immediately south of Temple. Almost literally every house has at least one Obama sign on their front lawn or in their window.

Those people that vote will, but how many people will vote?  Committee people can turn out some votes, and they are not on board.

The black committee people will be individually invested in seeing Obama win. It's a totally different story from their white colleagues.

[J. J.]

Okay, I saw something like that too in North Phila.  They were out yesterday and today.  The Caucasian populating of my neighborhood quadrupled during that time.  This is a heavily Democratic and black area.   They are not using the locals.

J.J., in all honesty, that doesn't matter there. At all. Obama is going to have insane turnout in North Philly and the other black areas. Go to the neighborhood immediately south of Temple. Almost literally every house has at least one Obama sign on their front lawn or in their window.

Those people that vote will, but how many people will vote?  Committee people can turn out some votes, and they are not on board.

The black committee people will be individually invested in seeing Obama win. It's a totally different story from their white colleagues.

I'm not entirely sure.  No one likes getting dissed.  Not making the payoffs is being dissed.

Obama has sent out an urgent e-mail for volunteers in PA.

I hope to have turnout numbers by 3:00 PM.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wonder if J. J. does what some of my co-workers do for logging cases, keep a list of commonly used phrases or case summaries on desktop and just copy and paste them in when necessary. He basically does the same thing with his posting (the 3:00 PM thing here, that "after you the deluge" thing, "Sweet Sarah Palin" a few months ago, the FL and MI spam back during the primaries, etc.) Of course my co-workers are just saving time while he's wasting since I doubt anyone takes it seriously.

[J. J.]

I wonder if J. J. does what some of my co-workers do for logging cases, keep a list of commonly used phrases or case summaries on desktop and just copy and paste them in when necessary. He basically does the same thing with his posting (the 3:00 PM thing here, that "after you the deluge" thing, "Sweet Sarah Palin" a few months ago, the FL and MI spam back during the primaries, etc.) Of course my co-workers are just saving time while he's wasting since I doubt anyone takes it seriously.

No, the "Sweet Sarah Palin," BTW was not complementary.

Weren't you one of those numerous people talking about "landslide" territory and the "double" digit lead in PA? 

I did a robo-call telling me where to vote today, from the Obama Campaign (well, it was paid for by Democratic State Committee).  I am saying that the local party people seen to be going out of their way not to campaign for Obama.  I still expect a high turnout in my immediate are and a high Obama vote, but using the locals can run up the numbers.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wonder if J. J. does what some of my co-workers do for logging cases, keep a list of commonly used phrases or case summaries on desktop and just copy and paste them in when necessary. He basically does the same thing with his posting (the 3:00 PM thing here, that "after you the deluge" thing, "Sweet Sarah Palin" a few months ago, the FL and MI spam back during the primaries, etc.) Of course my co-workers are just saving time while he's wasting since I doubt anyone takes it seriously.

No, the "Sweet Sarah Palin," BTW was not complementary.

I never said it was. In your typical fashion you completely ignored the point of my post by cherry-picking a minor sub-point.

Weren't you one of those numerous people talking about "landslide" territory and the "double" digit lead in PA? 

No, other than mentioning the simple fact that he did have a double digit lead a week or so ago. I never said it would be landslide (bank it, I'd bet anything I've never used that word in relation to Pennsylvania.)

[J. J.]

I wonder if J. J. does what some of my co-workers do for logging cases, keep a list of commonly used phrases or case summaries on desktop and just copy and paste them in when necessary. He basically does the same thing with his posting (the 3:00 PM thing here, that "after you the deluge" thing, "Sweet Sarah Palin" a few months ago, the FL and MI spam back during the primaries, etc.) Of course my co-workers are just saving time while he's wasting since I doubt anyone takes it seriously.

No, the "Sweet Sarah Palin," BTW was not complementary.

I never said it was. In your typical fashion you completely ignored the point of my post by cherry-picking a minor sub-point.

It's not minor, since I was referring to something that I thought was cynical in the McCain campaign.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not in relation to PA, but the "landslide" territory, natyionally.  Do you think the race has tightened in both PA and the US in general?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's some counter-anecdotal evidence.

The woman I just canvassed with has a son who lives in Pennsylvania in Bryn Athyn, basically a religious Swedenborgian community as her family is Swedenborgian, even though he like all of her kids is a Democrat. This place usually votes very Republican since they tend to be much more socially conservative than the Swedenborgians here. But he claims many of them are now leaning toward Obama and much more Democratic.

OMG ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE!

[J. J.]

Here's some counter-anecdotal evidence.

The woman I just canvassed with has a son who lives in Pennsylvania in Bryn Athyn, basically a religious Swedenborgian community as her family is Swedenborgian, even though he like all of her kids is a Democrat. This place usually votes very Republican since they tend to be much more socially conservative than the Swedenborgians here. But he claims many of them are now leaning toward Obama and much more Democratic.

OMG ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE!

Actually, in the Swedenborgian community, that is not too uncommon.  At least one of the branches has a majority of the members in South Africa and Lesotho.  The South African group is predominantly Zulu (they are super nice people, too) and there are many contacts.  I could see then very easily voting for someone with African ancestry.