Clemson Palmetto Poll-SC: Biden 35, Steyer 17, Sanders 13, Buttigieg 8, Warren 8

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/kirkbrown_aim/status/1232698365839912965?s=21

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

https://twitter.com/kirkbrown_aim/status/1232698365839912965?s=21

Trash uni poll.  JUNK IT!

[Xing]

While this poll was the closest in terms of the actual margin in 2016 (it had Clinton +50), it did underestimate Sanders's overall support by 12%. It just underestimated Clinton's support as well.

[Holmes]

Yeah these guys were the closest in terms of margin to the actual result in 2016.

[Volrath50]

Well, this would be a disaster for Sanders if true, but I feel that's unlikely.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I think Biden wins here by 10+ points. Sanders probably will finish ahead of Steyer, but this certainly won't be his best state.

[bilaps]

How stupid are people of South Carolina?

[The Free North]

Biden will do better once Steyer loses support.

[2016]

There is no way that Steyer finishes ahead of Sanders and Bernie gets locked out of SC Delegates.

[redjohn]

Great poll for Biden. Hoping Bernie does much better than this, winning 0 statewide delegates would not be a good look.

[brucejoel99]

JOEY!!! THAT'S MY BOY!! HE'S BACK, BAABYYY!!!

[McGee]

Clemson University will revive and modernize its Palmetto Poll by combining social media analytics with traditional polling methods in the statewide public opinion survey. Clemson faculty involved in the Palmetto Poll are already gathering data from political conversation using the university’s Social Media Listening Center in order to inform polling activities around the 2020 Democratic primary and the 2020 presidential election.

By continually monitoring keywords and mentions of primary candidates’ names, the center’s technology allows faculty to monitor general “buzz” around candidates as well as how successfully media coverage has fanned discussion of political topics on social media. Miller said the real power of the center will come as conversation and the topic of the day changes leading up to elections.

“The center is a powerful tool simply because we can augment searches and add new searches on the fly as the conversation changes,” Miller said. “We are also looking forward to engaging with social users and asking them questions directly through each social platform.”

Miller said faculty have addressed the potential unrepresentative samples that social media can provide by developing a sampling framework and statistical technique to generate state-level estimates of public opinion. Miller said this technique will meet or exceed response rates to random digit dialing techniques, which have long been considered the gold standard of public opinion polling.

newsstand.clemson.edu/mediarelations/palmetto-poll-at-clemson-to-utilize-social-media-analytics-in-advance-of-2020-democratic-primary-general-election/

[MT Treasurer]

No smug "B-b-but Biden's Southern firewall " posts in this thread, huh?

Yes, it’s just one poll but definitely not an outlier given PPP's recent poll. If Biden actually wins SC by close to or more than 20 points, this forum will look like Carthage in 146 B.C. I’ll get the popcorn ready.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I wouldn't rule out an outcome along these lines in SC. Based on demographics and absentee voting that has been ongoing, it should be one of the very worst states for Bernie. On the other hand the question is if it really matters if Bernie is up by 15-20 or whatever in CA and doing fine elsewhere outside the deep south.

[😥]

https://twitter.com/kirkbrown_aim/status/1232698365839912965?s=21

Trash uni poll.  JUNK IT!

Poll in which Sanders is lead or is close second = Freedom poll
Poll in which Biden is lead and Sanders is third  = Horrible poll

Also, good poll. Biden will win. Hope this poll and results are identical

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Woot Woot! DEFEAT SANDERS! HOLD THE BIDEN FIREWALL STRONG!

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I wouldn't rule out an outcome along these lines in SC. Based on demographics and absentee voting that has been ongoing, it should be one of the very worst states for Bernie. On the other hand the question is if it really matters if Bernie is up by 15-20 or whatever in CA and doing fine elsewhere outside the deep south.

Biden could close the gap in CA if he wins SC by this much and starts to look viable in the eyes of those who want an alternative to Sanders.

Make no mistake, he won't win CA, but I don't think Sanders wins ALL of their delegates.

[ShamDam]

Biden can win South Carolina by any amount and it would not fundamentally change Sanders's position in the race. It can boost Biden to be a real competitor, but the simple fact is that SC was always going to be one of Sanders's 10 worst states in the nation. He could lose it in a landslide and still win the nomination decisively. It's like Biden losing Colorado -- who care.

It's amazing to see people move the goalposts to claim that Bernie is somehow in trouble if Biden wins one of his best states, instead of Biden being in trouble that it's even remotely in question.

Let's not forget also that by being forced to invest so much in South Carolina to avoid an embarrassing defeat, Biden is woefully unprepared for Super Tuesday, which will be the most decisive day for the entire nomination cycle.

[YE]

I wouldn't rule out an outcome along these lines in SC. Based on demographics and absentee voting that has been ongoing, it should be one of the very worst states for Bernie. On the other hand the question is if it really matters if Bernie is up by 15-20 or whatever in CA and doing fine elsewhere outside the deep south.

Biden could close the gap in CA if he wins SC by this much and starts to look viable in the eyes of those who want an alternative to Sanders.

Make no mistake, he won't win CA, but I don't think Sanders wins ALL of their delegates.

With so many non-election day votes in California and 3 days between SC and ST, it’s hard for the outcome of SC to impact California by that much.

[Holmes]

I wouldn't rule out an outcome along these lines in SC. Based on demographics and absentee voting that has been ongoing, it should be one of the very worst states for Bernie. On the other hand the question is if it really matters if Bernie is up by 15-20 or whatever in CA and doing fine elsewhere outside the deep south.

Biden could close the gap in CA if he wins SC by this much and starts to look viable in the eyes of those who want an alternative to Sanders.

Make no mistake, he won't win CA, but I don't think Sanders wins ALL of their delegates.

Mmm, doubt whatever happens in SC matters here in CA. Especially when so much of the vote will be mailed out by then. It might tip the scales in states like NC though.

[OneJ]

This poll is still an outlier of sorts. Sanders consistently polls in the low 20s in SC and ahead of Steyer for the most part. Even if Biden rebounds in SC is it really believable for Bernie to be polling so low there that he's unviable (or barely clinching it) when just about every other poll including PPP suggests otherwise?

Also, I think it's quite optimistic thinking that SC would automatically turn things around for Biden significantly for ST and beyond.

[NHI]

This poll is still an outlier of sorts. Sanders consistently polls in the low 20s in SC and ahead of Steyer for the most part. Even if Biden rebounds in SC is it really believable for Bernie to be polling so low there that he's unviable (or barely clinching it) when just about every other poll including PPP suggests otherwise?

Also, I think it's quite optimistic thinking that SC would automatically turn things around for Biden significantly for ST and beyond.

Correct

[Eraserhead]

This is probably the worst case scenario for Sanders in terms of Biden's margin but he will not fail to be viable and I don't think there's any chance that Steyer finishes ahead of him.

Biden should win a state like this by at least 25% in a competitive race with Sanders.

[Gass3268]

My theory on what the Biden camp is thinking strategically for the rest of the month:
- Win South Carolina, hopefully big
- That provides a great couple day news cycle that his campaign is back on track and he's the main alternative to Sanders
- Wins Alabama (big), Arkansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.
- Improves enough in California to not get shut out of the delegates.
- Win Mississippi (big) and Missouri (maybe Michigan)
- Surpass Bloomberg in Florida, win Ohio (maybe Illinois)
- Win Georgia (big)

[DrScholl]

And to think that not long ago some people were actually suggesting that Sanders would win South Carolina.