Clemson Palmetto Poll-SC: Biden 35, Steyer 17, Sanders 13, Buttigieg 8, Warren 8

[2016]

Field Dates: Feb 17th to Feb 25.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I think a double digit Biden lead looks more likely than a 2-5 point lead.

[2016]

This is probably the worst case scenario for Sanders in terms of Biden's margin but he will not fail to be viable and I don't think there's any chance that Steyer finishes ahead of him.

Biden should win a state like this by at least 25% in a competitive race with Sanders.

They conducted the Poll February 17 to February 25. Enough said! These Polls over an 8-Day Period are having huge Problems. That's why I don't put too much stuck in Q-Pac Polls as well.

By comparison: The Palmetto Poll in 2016 which showed Clinton winning 64-14 was done Feb 20-25.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Field Dates: Feb 17th to Feb 25.

LOL! 

JUNK EEEEEEET!

[Mehmentum]

Field Dates: Feb 17th to Feb 25.

But muh narrative that Sanders is collapsing in SC after winning Nevada!

[2016]

I think a double digit Biden lead looks more likely than a 2-5 point lead.

I think it will be something in between. If it's below 5 Points I would be shocked, if it's above 15 Points and Sanders not viable at 13 % I would also be shocked.

I'd say: Biden low end 7-8 Points (like the Eastern U. Poll is predicting), high end 12-13 Points.

[Ronnie]

If the result looks like this, which we shouldn’t rule out because Clemson was the only pollster that got it right in 2016, then I don’t think Bernie will be the nominee.  It would signal that he’s getting shut out across the Deep South, making it really hard to even come close to racking up a majority of pledged delegates.

[ElectionsGuy]

0% chance Steyer comes in 2nd.

If the result looks like this, which we shouldn’t rule out because Clemson was the only pollster that got it right in 2016, then I don’t think Bernie will be the nominee.  It would signal that he’s getting shut out across the Deep South, making it really hard to even come close to racking up a majority of pledged delegates.

The only reason that was the case it because every poll underestimated Hillary's margin in 2016. That's like saying we should trust Trafalgar because they nailed Pennsylvania and Michigan in 2016.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Crosstabs: http://newsstand.clemson.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/2020-Palmetto-Poll-Results.pdf

Wait... TWO-THIRDS aged 55 and up?

HAHAHAHAHA omg...

[Eraserhead]

If the result looks like this, which we shouldn’t rule out because Clemson was the only pollster that got it right in 2016, then I don’t think Bernie will be the nominee.  It would signal that he’s getting shut out across the Deep South, making it really hard to even come close to racking up a majority of pledged delegates.

You're aware he's headed towards a landslide victory in California, right?

[2016]

Crosstabs: http://newsstand.clemson.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/2020-Palmetto-Poll-Results.pdf

Wait... TWO-THIRDS aged 55 and up?

HAHAHAHAHA omg...

SC 2016 EXIT POLL per CNN
17-24: 7 %
25-29: 8 %
30-39: 13 %
40-49: 16 %
50-64: 38 %
65+: 19 %
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/SC/Dem

If you combine 50-64 and 65+ you got 57 % of the Electorate being 50 years and older so it's not unreasonable.

Clemson has clearly been operating the their Model based on the '16 Exits.

So the Question is: Will 2020 have the same or rougly the same Electorate as it did in '16? If YES Biden wins big, if it's a younger Electorate we will have a much tighter Race.

Sanders need to drive young People or middle aged Voters to the Polls.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Yeah uhhhh I doubt this poll given that 65+ are that high when in 2016 and 2012 they were around 19%

[ElectionsGuy]

Crosstabs: http://newsstand.clemson.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/2020-Palmetto-Poll-Results.pdf

Wait... TWO-THIRDS aged 55 and up?

HAHAHAHAHA omg...

SC 2016 EXIT POLL per CNN
17-24: 7 %
25-29: 8 %
30-39: 13 %
40-49: 16 %
50-64: 38 %
65+: 19 %
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/SC/Dem

If you combine 50-64 and 65+ you got 57 % of the Electorate being 50 years and older so it's not unreasonable.

Clemson has clearly been operating the their Model based on the '16 Exits.

So the Question is: Will 2020 have the same or rougly the same Electorate as it did in '16? If YES Biden wins big, if it's a younger Electorate we will have a much tighter Race.

Sanders need to drive young People or middle aged Voters to the Polls.

This poll shows 64% 55+ while the 2016 exits show 57% 50+, so that's no small discrepancy. I would say the other major thing about the age of the poll is only 3% are 25 and under (which is undoubtedly going to be Bernie's strongest group).

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Crosstabs: http://newsstand.clemson.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/2020-Palmetto-Poll-Results.pdf

Wait... TWO-THIRDS aged 55 and up?

HAHAHAHAHA omg...

SC 2016 EXIT POLL per CNN
17-24: 7 %
25-29: 8 %
30-39: 13 %
40-49: 16 %
50-64: 38 %
65+: 19 %
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/SC/Dem

If you combine 50-64 and 65+ you got 57 % of the Electorate being 50 years and older so it's not unreasonable.

Clemson has clearly been operating the their Model based on the '16 Exits.

So the Question is: Will 2020 have the same or rougly the same Electorate as it did in '16? If YES Biden wins big, if it's a younger Electorate we will have a much tighter Race.

Sanders need to drive young People or middle aged Voters to the Polls.

This poll shows 64% 55+ while the 2016 exits show 57% 50+, so that's no small discrepancy. I would say the other major thing about the age of the poll is only 3% are 25 and under (which is undoubtedly going to be Bernie's strongest group).

43% aged 65 and older compared to 19% in 2016.

Enough said.  It’s junk.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I don't doubt this being the final margin or numbers, but it makes more sense to me when you swap Steyer & Sanders.

I'd consider it good for Sanders if he can stay viable. But this is pretty much the best-case scenario I was thinking of for Biden

[2016]

Crosstabs: http://newsstand.clemson.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/2020-Palmetto-Poll-Results.pdf

Wait... TWO-THIRDS aged 55 and up?

HAHAHAHAHA omg...

SC 2016 EXIT POLL per CNN
17-24: 7 %
25-29: 8 %
30-39: 13 %
40-49: 16 %
50-64: 38 %
65+: 19 %
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/SC/Dem

If you combine 50-64 and 65+ you got 57 % of the Electorate being 50 years and older so it's not unreasonable.

Clemson has clearly been operating the their Model based on the '16 Exits.

So the Question is: Will 2020 have the same or rougly the same Electorate as it did in '16? If YES Biden wins big, if it's a younger Electorate we will have a much tighter Race.

Sanders need to drive young People or middle aged Voters to the Polls.

This poll shows 64% 55+ while the 2016 exits show 57% 50+, so that's no small discrepancy. I would say the other major thing about the age of the poll is only 3% are 25 and under (which is undoubtedly going to be Bernie's strongest group).

Yep, the whole Poll seems a bit fishy. While Biden is well liked in the African American Community he ain't as liked as Clinton or Obama.

[Xing]

65% female also seems pretty high.

[RI]

65% female also seems pretty high.

A little bit, but not that much. Was 61% female in 2016.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

0% chance Steyer comes in 2nd.

If the result looks like this, which we shouldn’t rule out because Clemson was the only pollster that got it right in 2016, then I don’t think Bernie will be the nominee.  It would signal that he’s getting shut out across the Deep South, making it really hard to even come close to racking up a majority of pledged delegates.

The only reason that was the case it because every poll underestimated Hillary's margin in 2016. That's like saying we should trust Trafalgar because they nailed Pennsylvania and Michigan in 2016.

I don't think he will, but there is more than a 0% chance. He's made inroads amongst African Americans, far more than Sanders, and AAs make up 2/3 of the electorate here.

That said, I think Biden wins by 10-12% in the end.

[ON Progressive]

65% female also seems pretty high.

That doesn’t seem too unreasonable for the Deep South tbf (largely because of ex-felon disenfranchisement)

[2016]

65% female also seems pretty high.

That doesn’t seem too unreasonable for the Deep South tbf (largely because of ex-felon disenfranchisement)

But they have Young Voters only at 3 % when it was 7 % in 2016 and Clinton having a lot of momentum by winning the Nevada Caucuses.

[President Johnson]

Uncle Joe ahead big time and Bernie third would be fatanstic. But I'm not buying it for now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Uncle Joe ahead big time and Bernie third would be fatanstic. But I'm not buying it for now.

There are other polls that show Biden ahead by 5 pts

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Well, this would be a disaster for Sanders if true, but I feel that's unlikely.

You could also argue that Bernie badly under performed in his own backyard in the NH primary. Only getting 25% of the vote, and beating Pete by 1%. NV was a caucus, which favors ideologues and benefited Bernie. There are no more caucuses left in the major states, only primaries. Bernie might do even worse in SC.

[NOVA Green]

My theory on what the Biden camp is thinking strategically for the rest of the month:
- Win South Carolina, hopefully big
- That provides a great couple day news cycle that his campaign is back on track and he's the main alternative to Sanders
- Wins Alabama (big), Arkansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.
- Improves enough in California to not get shut out of the delegates.
- Win Mississippi (big) and Missouri (maybe Michigan)
- Surpass Bloomberg in Florida, win Ohio (maybe Illinois)
- Win Georgia (big)

That's pretty much sums up my thought on the pathway for Biden to at least make it a 50-50 shot for a toe-to-toe matchup against Sanders.

At this point it's pretty clear that the Sanders 2020 Coalition is a bit different than that of 2016 and that Biden faces his own challenges.

One can surmise that even if other candidates drop out that Bernie will still see his share of support rise, although Joe might gain at a better clip *if* Sanders is not able to recoup the rural and small town voters back as heavily as Biden in places like Downstate IL etc....

National DEM PRIM polls by region still look problematic for Biden in the Midwest & NE/Central Atlantic regions, although arguably there is a better chance for recovery than in the Western United States, where quite frankly Biden's voter base is extremely limited....