How West Virginia has turned to a GOP stronghold? (user search)
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  How West Virginia has turned to a GOP stronghold? (search mode)
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Author Topic: How West Virginia has turned to a GOP stronghold?  (Read 17811 times)
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
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« on: December 03, 2015, 11:26:28 AM »

I've written about the unpleasantness of WV in other threads and here I go again.

Current WV politics are driven by desperation, lies and ego.

Well, the history books will talk about coal because that is what WV in the 20th Century is all about.

A few facts:

--WV is the only state with fewer people than in 1950.  There are really two WV.  The Eastern panhandle which mines no coal and is part of the I-81 corridor/Wash exurbs.  The population there has gained 125,000 since 1950 and has gone from 3% of the state to 10%.  The rest of the state has lost 280,000 people. 

--WV was one of the youngest states in 1950 and now is the third oldest (behind Florida and Maine) http://www.be.wvu.edu/bber/pdfs/BBER-2014-04.pdf

--It ranks at the top or in the top three of states in the following categories:

Disability
Drug Overdose deaths (by far)
Adults who self medicate daily
Smoking
Obesity
Fewest Adults with college degree
Accidental deaths

WV lack of health and their age results in a death rate 15% higher than the next state.  Despite having the 6th highest teen birth rate, the overall birthrate for WV is below average (the only state in the top 10 teen births to pull off that feat).  Again, there are two WV as the East Panhandle is younger and healthier, it has 750 more births than deaths, while the rest of the state has 2500 more deaths than births.

Their current workforce looks like this:



I don't have separate numbers for East panhandle, but they are younger and have fewer disability cases than the national average meaning that the rest of WV is even worse than it looks in that graph above. 

Let turn to geography.

WV has a very difficult terrain to maintain infrastructure.  Many, many coal towns have been completely abandoned after the coal ran out.  Because of the terrain and the transitory nature of coal towns much of the infrastructure built tended to be bare minimum.  The infrastructure that has survived is stretched across fewer people to pay for it's maintenance  or upgrading to modern standards.  Think of Detroit if it were stretched across mountains and hollows.

Coal mining jobs in WV peaked just before 1950 at around 120,000 were at 22,000 in 2008 and have dropped to around 16,000 this year.  Coal jobs have declined for many reasons, technology, Wyoming coal, natural gas, more than one environmental movement (who can forget acid rain).  There has never been a lack of a villain.   So, WV has been combating declining coal jobs for seven decades now.  Of course, their number one weapon for several decades was Sen. Robert Byrd and he dragged in anything he could for WV, not just much needed money for roads or water systems, but an FBI crime lab, a NASA facility, more than one Naval facility (think about that) so many federal prisons that almost 11,000 residents of the state (for census purposes) are federal prisoners.

But Senator Byrd is gone and there is no one with the fraction of the clout or skill to replace him and in fact one of the naval facilities recently closed (and despite a local politician's efforts, was not converted into a prison). 

As for private development.  Well, WV has very difficult terrain, an iffy infrastructure complicated by terrain,  an old, disabled, declining work force with a wide variety of health issues.  also, an educational attainment level that limits the state to more basic industries and jobs.  Again the Eastern Panhandle is the exception due to it not being like the rest of the state and being located along a vibrant corridor.

It's easy to see why they cling so fanatically to coal and in my next post I'll explain why that ain't gonna work, and why those that tell them otherwise (pretty much every politician in the state) are steaming bags of inks.
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DINGO Joe
dingojoe
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« Reply #1 on: December 06, 2015, 11:04:28 AM »

Don't know when I'll get around to a full post on just how inks coal in WV is but this is a little teaser



Something happened at the end of the 20th Century and last decade that suddenly made gas power plants the thing to build.

Florida makes for a fascinating case study.  In 2001 it actually got more electric power from coal than NG, by 2009 it was getting twice as much from NG than coal, by 2012 it was getting 3X from NG and now is closing in on 4X.  FP&L is actually buying a coal plant in the state so they can shut it down and get out of a long term purchase contract they had with the plant.  Not because of any environmental issue, but because they could save money even when taking into account the cost of buying the plant.

http://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2015/08/27/jacksonvilles-cedar-bay-coal-power-plant-to-bought.html

Florida will get about 18% of their electric from coal this year. Of the coal Florida does still use, it's about as likely to come from Colombia than WV at this point.
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DINGO Joe
dingojoe
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« Reply #2 on: December 28, 2015, 01:13:32 AM »
« Edited: December 28, 2015, 03:48:38 AM by The Unbearable Invicibility of Hillary Clinton »

It was always a Dixiecrat state, but Robert C Byrd kept it in the Democratic column, and so did Jay Rockefeller.  It voted for Carter, LBJ, JFK, Truman & Clinton. It became a GOP, after Byrd.
Yeah at the state level WV became GOP after Byrd died.

It's still not "GOP" at the state level.

Yes it is. The GOP has both chambers of the state legislature now.

And they've done wonders with the place.

Again, the story of WV is coal and whatever Byrd could drag into the state.  Without that it's just a place to take care of the elderly, disabled and drug addicts until they die.
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DINGO Joe
dingojoe
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« Reply #3 on: December 28, 2015, 10:56:47 PM »

It was always a Dixiecrat state, but Robert C Byrd kept it in the Democratic column, and so did Jay Rockefeller.  It voted for Carter, LBJ, JFK, Truman & Clinton. It became a GOP, after Byrd.
Yeah at the state level WV became GOP after Byrd died.

It's still not "GOP" at the state level.

Yes it is. The GOP has both chambers of the state legislature now.

And they've done wonders with the place.

Again, the story of WV is coal and whatever Byrd could drag into the state.  Without that it's just a place to take care of the elderly, disabled and drug addicts until they die.

That's a good way to keep losing elections. Idk if you're a Democrat or not, but folks in the national party deride Red-state blue-collar Americans and then wonder why they lose. Surprise!

Well, I pretty much routinely vote D, and while my job is that of a pencil pusher, I have knowledge of the work and even some interaction with those who work at the port, the railroads, offshore on oil and gas rigs, and at power plants.  Given my location (New Orleans), I have never been in an actual working coal mine, but I have enough knowledge to know it's as tough if not tougher than any of those jobs (actually working at a NG power plant is pretty easy).

As for who I'd vote for if I were in an Appalachian coal state, I don't care if their name is Manchin or Caputo, or Bevin or Conway, or the worst of all McConell, they are all huge bags of excrement, and not cow or pig from which something can grow, but magical excrement from which nothing will grow.  As for the other assorted local politicans is doesn't matter if they are D or R (or frequently Ds who switch to Rs) they are the same.  Instead of dumb and dumber they are coal and coaler..

The core of the issue for WV and adjacent coal regions in KY and VA are that they are obsolete.  First they lost jobs to technology, then to other coal regions, and then to natural gas in conjunction with technology all at the same time, their coal has been played out, seams are thinner or further down.  Have they ever faced the reality that their economic competitiveness has them staring at the abyss?  Why should they when they can just bleat "Obama" and "war on coal".  Look at the post further up which shows the age of power plants by fuel type.  Did they ever wonder why so many NG plants were built in the decade before Obama was elected and why so many were in regions that were burning CAPP coal? (there was a break thru in NG electric generation technology called combined cycle)  Did they take note of fracking and the Marcellus (and now Utica) NG basins right in their own backyard and now Virginia, PA, NJ, Del and Ohio (but not WV) building NGCC power plants?  It's all been very methodical and economically  logical for the states doing this.

There is a whole other story involving metallurgical coal which is used for steel making and historically more lucrative and able to employ more miners per ton (though scarcer) but that story also has had a recent unpleasant turn having to do with Chinese demand sharply declining after a boom and once again leaving Appalachia (including Alabama this time) out of the money

Also, for all the rants about renewables taking jobs from coal miners, wind and solar have a tiny footprint in the regions that historically get Appalachian coal.  As predicted by the musical "Oklahoma", the Great Plains dominate wind generation and California and the Southwest dominate solar.  They certainly have cut into Western and Powder River Basin coal but that's another story.

Getting back to WV, it's gone from one of the youngest states in 1950 to the 3rd oldest now (and if you exclude the East Panhandle which has nothing to do with coal 2nd oldest).  The oldest state is of course Florida which attracts an endless supply of healthy and wealthy elderly something you won't find in WV.  WV has the highest rate of people on disability of any state and it has the highest rate of people dying by drug overdose.  Because of it's age and unhealthiness it has the highest death rate of any state by a wide margin.  Hence my remark which you responded to.  Sometime the truth hurts and none of the cowardly bags of elected excrement are  willing to talk about truth  (well, Kessler at least broaches the subject).  A governor's race between Justice and Cole would  basically a death sentence for the state and even an honest governor and state lege would be facing pretty hefty odds.

I know Obama had proposed a financial package to try and address the problem of attracting jobs to a region no employers are interested in, but the Rs in Congress chose to ignore it (even with all the goodies included in the great compromise), and Hillary has proposed an even bigger package, but I don't know why the Rs would go for that either.  I don't know how effective it would be, but in the interim, each year that goes by the region will get older, poorer, probably more drug addled and more dead.

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