How West Virginia has turned to a GOP stronghold?

[Stan]

West Virginia was a stronghold of Democrats. Also in Republican landslides like in 1988 or 1980 Democratic candidates won the state. But in 2000 George W. Bush won the state. And from that year West Virginia turns Republican. Obama has lost in every single county of WV in 2012.

Why this change of the electorate of West Virginia?

[Bigby]

WV is repulsed by these factors in the new Democratic coalition:

1. Environmentalism
2. Urban appeal over rural appeal
3. Cultural Populism vs Elitism
4. Social Liberalism

Those are the big reasons for why WV has flipped.

[TDAS04]

Coal has been big.  

Also, what Bigby said. 

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Obama is black.

[Hydera]

Obama is black.

So Gore and Kerry lost WV because they were white?

[H. Ross Peron]

Declining turnout-I recall seeing in a chart that West Virginia had the biggest turnout decline of state in the Union. For reference see this article: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/22/opinion/sunday/who-turned-my-blue-state-red.html?_r=0

[Asian Nazi]

The rise (during and after the New Deal Era) and collapse (since the 1980s) of labor unions as a social and political force has played a predominant factor in changing West Virginia's political alignment over time.  Now, West Virginia has always been a culturally conservative place.  It separated from Virginia in order to stay in the Union (making it a Republican state), but then became a conservative Democrat bastion during the Reconstruction Era as it resisted what it viewed as overreach by the federal government.  Then, over time, it slowly transitioned into a conservative Republican state once again.  It was the New Deal Era and the rise of labor unions that made it such a strong Democratic state from 1932 onwards. 

In the recent past, these unions played a central role in the lives of West Virginians for their members, the families of their members, and the communities that the members lived in.  Once the unions collapsed as a force in West Virginia, there was little reason for culturally conservative West Virginians to back a Democratic Party which had little values in common with them.  Some switched to the Republican Party, but many stopped voting altogether without unions bringing them to the polls, which is why turnout has collapsed in the state. 

The state Democratic Party managed to hold on a bit better, but the social and political realignment of the region seems to be getting to them too.  The Republicans just took the State Legislature for the first time in 80+ years and looks set to take the governorship next year.  It wouldn't shock me if the West Virginia Democratic Party goes the way of the Tennesse Democrats in a decade or so.

[Badger]

Coal. Next question ?

[Hydera]

Declining turnout-I recall seeing in a chart that West Virginia had the biggest turnout decline of state in the Union. For reference see this article: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/22/opinion/sunday/who-turned-my-blue-state-red.html?_r=0

blargahaha blargaga blarha turnout blah blah blah


Im starting to get sick of hearing this word.


Complaining about turnout as why democrats didnt win is not just overused but absurd.

[Asian Nazi]

Declining turnout-I recall seeing in a chart that West Virginia had the biggest turnout decline of state in the Union. For reference see this article: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/22/opinion/sunday/who-turned-my-blue-state-red.html?_r=0

blargahaha blargaga blarha turnout blah blah blah


Im starting to get sick of hearing this word.


Complaining about turnout as why democrats didnt win is not just overused but absurd.

People simplifying it to "coal" or "hurr durr negroes" is even dumber though.  These trends started long before coal became an issue or the Democrats ran a black man and while these things possibly exacerbated the situation, acting acting like it's the be all and end all of the discussion is ignorant.

[H. Ross Peron]

Declining turnout-I recall seeing in a chart that West Virginia had the biggest turnout decline of state in the Union. For reference see this article: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/22/opinion/sunday/who-turned-my-blue-state-red.html?_r=0

blargahaha blargaga blarha turnout blah blah blah


Im starting to get sick of hearing this word.


Complaining about turnout as why democrats didnt win is not just overused but absurd.

Care to actually explain?

[DS0816]

West Virginia was a stronghold of Democrats. Also in Republican landslides like in 1988 or 1980 Democratic candidates won the state. But in 2000 George W. Bush won the state. And from that year West Virginia turns Republican. Obama has lost in every single county of WV in 2012.

Why this change of the electorate of West Virginia?

Barack Obama being black was part of it. But, I also think the realigning of the map and re-branding of the two major parties (that Republicans used to be more liberal and are now more conservative; that Democrats used to be more conservative and are now more liberal) is even more a compelling reason.

The following states which voted for both the 1992 and 1996 elections of previous Democratic president Bill Clinton, but haven't carried for the party since, are: Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia.

I don't think this is any coincidence.

Today those six states combine for 48 electoral votes. (Down from 50 in 2004 and 2008.) Since half of them come from the Old Confederacy, Barack Obama pretty much made up for their losses by having carried, in both 2008 and 2012, Florida and Virginia.

Bill Clinton missed Florida in 1992. I cannot count that state for him with both elections. And, even though it is not from that same area of the country, Obama, but not Clinton, carried Colorado in both his elections. Florida and Virginia combined for 40 electoral votes in 2008. They're now combined for 42. Add Colorado's 9 electoral votes…and the loss of those states, which include West Virginia, are electorally sustainable for the Democrats.

[Hydera]

Declining turnout-I recall seeing in a chart that West Virginia had the biggest turnout decline of state in the Union. For reference see this article: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/22/opinion/sunday/who-turned-my-blue-state-red.html?_r=0

blargahaha blargaga blarha turnout blah blah blah


Im starting to get sick of hearing this word.


Complaining about turnout as why democrats didnt win is not just overused but absurd.

Care to actually explain?

Obama's approval in the state is an average of 33.5% against a 62% disapproval.

Obama got 35.45% of votes in the state in 2012.


The idea that any state can be won if only there was higher turnout!!! is stupid considering that Obama has a 62% disapproval in the state. 

[Rockefeller GOP]

West Virginia was a stronghold of Democrats. Also in Republican landslides like in 1988 or 1980 Democratic candidates won the state. But in 2000 George W. Bush won the state. And from that year West Virginia turns Republican. Obama has lost in every single county of WV in 2012.

Why this change of the electorate of West Virginia?

Barack Obama being black was part of it. But, I also think the realigning of the map and re-branding of the two major parties (that Republicans used to be more liberal and are now more conservative; that Democrats used to be more conservative and are now more liberal) is even more a compelling reason.

The following states which voted for both the 1992 and 1996 elections of previous Democratic president Bill Clinton, but haven't carried for the party since, are: Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia.

I don't think this is any coincidence.

Today those six states combine for 48 electoral votes. (Down from 50 in 2004 and 2008.) Since half of them come from the Old Confederacy, Barack Obama pretty much made up for their losses by having carried, in both 2008 and 2012, Florida and Virginia.

Bill Clinton missed Florida in 1992. I cannot count that state for him with both elections. And, even though it is not from that same area of the country, Obama, but not Clinton, carried Colorado in both his elections. Florida and Virginia combined for 40 electoral votes in 2008. They're now combined for 42. Add Colorado's 9 electoral votes…and the loss of those states, which include West Virginia, are electorally sustainable for the Democrats.

Most people here are knowledgable enough to not entertain your kindergarten-level fantasy idea that "the Republicans used to be the liberals and the Democrats used to be conservative!!"  Anyone using "liberal" or "conservative" to describe politics pre-1896 at the absolute earliest is being suspect, and it is objectively true that the GOP delegation as a whole has been to the right of the Democrats every year since then.  The maps have changed for other much more complex reasons.  Sorry, your formulas are a complete waste of time.

[H. Ross Peron]

Declining turnout-I recall seeing in a chart that West Virginia had the biggest turnout decline of state in the Union. For reference see this article: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/22/opinion/sunday/who-turned-my-blue-state-red.html?_r=0

blargahaha blargaga blarha turnout blah blah blah


Im starting to get sick of hearing this word.


Complaining about turnout as why democrats didnt win is not just overused but absurd.

Care to actually explain?

Obama's approval in the state is an average of 33.5% against a 62% disapproval.

Obama got 35.45% of votes in the state in 2012.


The idea that any state can be won if only there was higher turnout!!! is stupid considering that Obama has a 62% disapproval in the state. 

I don't think anyone's saying West Virginia would be Democratic solely by virtue of higher turnout but the party would immeasurably be strengthened by it-I doubt Obama would have won it in 2012 but we'd see Democrats like Nick Rahall still in office. Keep in mind that the poorest voters are probably the least likely to be polled or to respond to them and that they may very well simply disapprove of Obama in the "plague on both your houses" sense or because of lack of political engagement.

[TJ in Oregon]

The decline in turnout is because the Democratic Party became toxic there and not the other way around. Also, Obama was no blacker in 2012 than he was in 2008 when an addition 65,000 West Virginians voted for him. Coal is obviously the main factor in the dropoff there but there are many others that have been discussed here already (Bigby summarizes it well).

[Potus]

A couple of things are at work.

It would be incredibly difficult to overstate the influence coal's decline has had on West Virginia's politics. West Virginia Democrats never actively disavowed their national party on the coal issue. The UMW didn't necessarily collapse with the mines, but their organization collapsed because they continued to support national Democrats in direct contrast to what benefits coal and their members. The UMW essentially committed suicide, with an overwhelming percentage of its members being retirees who are losing their benefits to bankruptcy.

Cultural issues are also an incredible, incredible rightward pressure on voters. The assumption for a long time has been that WV Democrats are cultural conservatives. That's certainly what they ran on. But they made these pro-life promises for so long that unrest began around 2008 in the country churches with folks asking why, after electing all people that say they're pro-life , are abortions legal in the ninth month courtesy of the taxpayer. This sort of 'why aren't you delivering?' mentality began to shift the organizational power toward the Republicans.

It's also important to highlight that Democrats couldn't touch the traditional Republican base. The upper middle class on up has always been a strongly Republican constituency. The Democrats couldn't compete there. There were also certain parts of the state which were Republican before the state began to move. There has always been a powerful sense of political inertia, meaning that communities favor incumbents so they all line up with the incumbent power. Chinks in the incumbency armor favor Republicans and they have been occurring at an ever increasing rate.

While the politics on the ground has resulted in much of the movement toward the Republican Party, the Democratic leadership has essentially kissed Appalachia goodbye. Think of who controls the Democratic Party: folks whose only political ideology is social liberalism. They're views on society and culture are derived from liberalism. They're views on work and money are informed by social liberalism. This creates a permanent disdain for Appalachian people.

How many times have liberals mockingly called West Virginia a taker state voting against their own government-dependent interests because they're dumb and racist? Every time they discuss my people. The economic promise of the Democratic Party used to be about work, unions, and stopping the government from screwing the working man. Today, the economic promise of the Democratic Party is of wielding government power to screw over the rich to give out free things. Republicans in WV used to be a very patrician party. Today the Republicans will say, 'We care about your work. We want to prevent government from screwing you over in the form of EPA regs. We don't like the union much but we do support your cultural values.'

You must also consider the type of work done by the old members of the Democratic majority. They mined coal in the south, cut timber in the middle, and worked steel in the north. Everyone was sore after a day of work. The first Democratic message resonated with these guys. The second one, not so much. Try justifying taxing those guys to provide free stuff to those who don't work. I can't tell you how many times I've heard, 'I don't have a high school diploma but I can keep my family fed, what's their excuse?'

TLDR; The Democratic Party left us. They don't care about us. We finally realized that.

[Eomer]

IIRC, a news anchor said on Election Night 2000 that Gore couldn't win the election if he couldn't win West Virginia.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Robert C Byrd who was there as Dem Maj Leader during 70's under Carter and there as Appropriations Ranking Dem under Clinton kept WVa as a Dem state. When Gore and Kerry were nominated, Byrd torch wasnt passed to anymore Dems until Manchin, who is a blue dog. Since then, NH and Iowa and NM has replaced WVa as Dem strongholds. NH was more conservative when WVa was a blue dog state, under Sununus.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IIRC, a news anchor said on Election Night 2000 that Gore couldn't win the election if he couldn't win West Virginia.

The Nadar vote cost Gore NH, if he picked Bob Graham, FL would have went into recount and Graham would have helped in NH.

[TDAS04]

The rise (during and after the New Deal Era) and collapse (since the 1980s) of labor unions as a social and political force has played a predominant factor in changing West Virginia's political alignment over time.  Now, West Virginia has always been a culturally conservative place.  It separated from Virginia in order to stay in the Union (making it a Republican state), but then became a conservative Democrat bastion during the Reconstruction Era as it resisted what it viewed as overreach by the federal government.  Then, over time, it slowly transitioned into a conservative Republican state once again.  It was the New Deal Era and the rise of labor unions that made it such a strong Democratic state from 1932 onwards. 

Interesting, I was wondering why West Virginia voted the way it did pre-New Deal.  It may surprise some people that it was never part of the Solid South (not even during the New Deal), but then again, Civil War Unionism explains its early Republican inclinations (even though it didn't stay Republican like East Tennessee).

[DS0816]

Over the last six United States presidential elections of 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012, the average number of states carried between two-term presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama were 29.

If the nation's presidential elections are going to continue on a path in which approximately 20 states will be refraining from being willing to carry for a presidential winner, due mainly to strong partisan opposition, then you have to be (or get) realistic with what to write off. And write off more than willingly.

West Virginia, and those other states I mentioned in my previous thread response, is one of those few states which carried for both of Bill Clinton's elections but not once—twelve and sixteen years after Clinton—for his Democratic successor, Barack Obama.

Well, time along with some states' voting electorates moved. More than moved.

Barack Obama had a reroute, to some notable extent, in his 2008 Democratic path with winning the Electoral College. And, given everything noted here (including all these theories specifically concerning the people of the state of West Virginia), I don't think seeing winning Democrats (on a continuing pattern with 20 states not carrying) making do without West Virginia is regrettable. The state backed plenty of losing Democrats when the Republicans were the ones more liberal (and the Democrats more conservative). It's actually better for the policies of the 2008-going-forward Democrats, when they don't get a 40-state landslide, to let states like West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, and former prominent bellwether Tennessee—which adjusted their "partisan voting index" to leaning more decisively to the Republicans (they now are the more conservative of the two major parties)—fall to the opposition than to try to go back to the past for the sake of, maybe, winning about half these states in a presidential election in which, maybe, sees two-thirds of the nation's states carry for a winning Democrat.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

A couple of things are at work.

It would be incredibly difficult to overstate the influence coal's decline has had on West Virginia's politics. West Virginia Democrats never actively disavowed their national party on the coal issue. The UMW didn't necessarily collapse with the mines, but their organization collapsed because they continued to support national Democrats in direct contrast to what benefits coal and their members. The UMW essentially committed suicide, with an overwhelming percentage of its members being retirees who are losing their benefits to bankruptcy.

Cultural issues are also an incredible, incredible rightward pressure on voters. The assumption for a long time has been that WV Democrats are cultural conservatives. That's certainly what they ran on. But they made these pro-life promises for so long that unrest began around 2008 in the country churches with folks asking why, after electing all people that say they're pro-life , are abortions legal in the ninth month courtesy of the taxpayer. This sort of 'why aren't you delivering?' mentality began to shift the organizational power toward the Republicans.

It's also important to highlight that Democrats couldn't touch the traditional Republican base. The upper middle class on up has always been a strongly Republican constituency. The Democrats couldn't compete there. There were also certain parts of the state which were Republican before the state began to move. There has always been a powerful sense of political inertia, meaning that communities favor incumbents so they all line up with the incumbent power. Chinks in the incumbency armor favor Republicans and they have been occurring at an ever increasing rate.

While the politics on the ground has resulted in much of the movement toward the Republican Party, the Democratic leadership has essentially kissed Appalachia goodbye. Think of who controls the Democratic Party: folks whose only political ideology is social liberalism. They're views on society and culture are derived from liberalism. They're views on work and money are informed by social liberalism. This creates a permanent disdain for Appalachian people.

How many times have liberals mockingly called West Virginia a taker state voting against their own government-dependent interests because they're dumb and racist? Every time they discuss my people. The economic promise of the Democratic Party used to be about work, unions, and stopping the government from screwing the working man. Today, the economic promise of the Democratic Party is of wielding government power to screw over the rich to give out free things. Republicans in WV used to be a very patrician party. Today the Republicans will say, 'We care about your work. We want to prevent government from screwing you over in the form of EPA regs. We don't like the union much but we do support your cultural values.'

You must also consider the type of work done by the old members of the Democratic majority. They mined coal in the south, cut timber in the middle, and worked steel in the north. Everyone was sore after a day of work. The first Democratic message resonated with these guys. The second one, not so much. Try justifying taxing those guys to provide free stuff to those who don't work. I can't tell you how many times I've heard, 'I don't have a high school diploma but I can keep my family fed, what's their excuse?'

TLDR; The Democratic Party left us. They don't care about us. We finally realized that.

Elitism has hammered the Democrats in many such places, and it has only worsened their appeal as they have dropped much of what used to make them so appealing to appeal to their new voters and the former Republicans who have joined them in places like the Northeast. Adding to the problem is that the Democrats don't think they need these states anymore, which means it likely will not change anytime soon.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Census keep shifting in TX, FL, NV, CO & AZ in which werr safe R holds in what are considered the Goldwater West and Dems are excelling in them & will win the House omce 2020 census is taken

[Frodo]

West Virginia (and other states like it) began turning Republican when the Democratic Party started emphasizing human-induced climate change as an issue worthy of national and international attention. 

And started tailoring policies towards that effect.