Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Mr.Phips]

I was quite busy last week so I just looked at the Virginia results in-depth today, I think there are a few things that stand out about this election worth noting.

Firstly, as I had indicated prior to the election, many of the firms who analyse the early vote like Targetsmart are basically run by dems and their analysis of the early vote is always to rosy for democrats, it was the same case this time, predictions that McAuliffe was winning the early vote by 30% or even 25% turned out to be wrong. In a state with no voter registration by party, analysing the early vote is hard, the only thing that could be gleaned from it was that early voting was higher relative to 2020 in counties that voted for Trump then Biden in Virginia to a modest degree, suggesting a moderate Republican turnout edge.

On turnout, the one piece of conventional wisdom that came true was since democrats like to vote early and Republicans on election day, the higher turnout was on election day relative to overall turnout, the better Youngkin would perform. Since turnout was very high on election day, over 2 million, it suggested Republicans would do well state-wide and they did. As an aside, I find it very funny that people were suggesting in this forum and on twitter that very high turnout on election day was somehow not good for Youngkin even though all the evidence suggested it was due to Republicans preferring to vote more on election day relative to democrats.


Finally, the 2021 election was basically an exact copy of the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections in VA with more or less a uniform shift towards the Republicans. In 2012, Romney lost VA by 4%, he lost Fairfax county by 20%, Fairfax had a partisan lean of D+16 vs the state-wide vote, in 2016 it was D+30 and D+32 in 2020, in this election it was D+32.

The different parts of the Virginia electorate voted identical to 2016 and 2020 in terms of how different groups behaved with a uniform swing towards Republicans. The election suggests there will not be a return to the pre 2016 alignment and the 2016 election represented a new alignment which is durable.

The problem is the 2016 coalition doesn't actually help Dems win anything.  What they need is for the Biden coalition to filter downballot and solve their geography problems through Southern suburbs and small cities more generally.  So far, that just isn't happening.  

The Biden coalition in 2020 was a short term reaction to Trump, much like the Carter coalition in 1976 was a one time reaction to reaction to Watergate.

If that is true, then Dems are screwed for a decade, especially with the Hispanic GOP trend continuing beyond Trump.

2024 will likely produce a GOP supermajority in the senate if they win the presidential race, so it's kind of a must-win for Dems.  I could see the party that loses 2028 being better off in the long run though, between redistricting control, China likely peaking in power, and the social security/medicare situation really coming to a head.  But 2024 is the Republican New Deal if they win.    

If Dems win the Presidential race in 2024, they very likely lose 2028.  

[Chips]

Question:  Has Non-Swing Voter apologized?  They really do owe a lot of posters an apology.  I don't mean that they should apologize for thinking McAuliffe would win, but they should definitely apologize for mocking other posters who suggested McAuliffe might not win, or that it might even be competitive.

He hasn't even been on for a few days now.

[Calthrina950]

Question:  Has Non-Swing Voter apologized?  They really do owe a lot of posters an apology.  I don't mean that they should apologize for thinking McAuliffe would win, but they should definitely apologize for mocking other posters who suggested McAuliffe might not win, or that it might even be competitive.

He hasn't even been on for a few days now.

Non Swing Voter doesn't strike me as the kind of person who would apologize.

[Matty]

Target smart was way off with early vote margin

It was only +19 tmac

https://mobile.twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1457432570229055502

[2016]

Virginia is now 100 % reported per AP. Youngkin won with about 66K!

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Jaaavis/status/1457519117452382209

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/adamgriffin/status/1457627858264788992

And keep in mind that this is just vote-share: margin difference between Warner and McAuliffe would be double those figures.

Some fun examples:
Covington (City): Warner 46%, McAuliffe 32%
Henry County: Warner 41%, McAuliffe 29%
Bristol (City): Warner 36%, McAuliffe 26%
Radford (City): Warner 57%, McAuliffe 45%
Richmond County: Warner 42%, McAuliffe 29%

What's really crazy is that in the hardest-hit areas for Ds, the cities slid just as much - and in several cases, even more than the surrounding, more rural environs (see Bristol vs Washington, Covington vs Alleghany, Danville vs Pittsylvania, Galax vs Carroll & Grayson, Radford vs Montgomery, Salem vs Roanoke County, etc).

[Brittain33]

Do people believe that TMac campaigning in rural western Virginia would have made the difference? I don’t know if it would or not.

[Person Man]

Target smart was way off with early vote margin

It was only +19 tmac

https://mobile.twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1457432570229055502

That’s why it looked good until the polls closed for him. The difference was in the EV.

[Badger]

Honestly….how did Romney only lose loudoun by 4

100,000 new residents or about 25 percent population growth in 10 years. Primarily Hispanics and Asians.

Youngkin did really well with Hispanics tho

Any exit poll claiming Youngkin got above 40 percent with Hispanics is BS. Instead of relying on exit polls we have actual data from majority hispanic areas in NOVA showing around 35-38 Youngkin. Anyway Because Romney only lost Loudoun by four any demographics that is more than 52-48 D will be a net loss for republicans there and contribute to a growing democratic victory margain in Loudoun.

Data shows more than 40% with Hispanics

 Is what "data" are you referencing thing beyond the aforementioned is exit polls and, arguably more accurate, precinct results?

Wouldn’t you agree that the CNN and fox exit polls were both wrong. There’s no way looking at precinct data that Youngkin did worse than Trump with this group. 55% GOP? Still probably sus

 I'm sorry, but I still have no idea what you're basing your data on data on.  Exit polls, but only particular ones?

Precinct data that show shifts towards the GOP. Why don’t democrats stop being in denial about the obvious Hispanics shifts towards republicans? Catholics didn’t stay with democrats forever just like Hispanics won’t either..

OK, yet again, your hypothesis is muddled. As pointed out, precinct data did not show much of a shift of hispanics or at least no greater than voters at large, possibly somewhat less IRC.Is it is still after multiple posts not clear what data you are relying on to stateIs about "obvious" Hispanic shifts any greater than the overall electorate shift

These posts are starting to Is sound a bit more like a political polymic rather than data analysis.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Glenn Youngkin is the last kind of Republican candidate I'd expect to over perform with hispanics - he's basically got that Mitt Romney asthetic.  You need a strongman like Trump to fire up the low info hispanics, not a guy who looks like his mom just knitted him his fleece.  He didn't project strength.

youngkin was basically the perfect fit for college whites in va and he still lost them according to exit polls

i mean, sweet jesus, who does the gop have to nominate to win back these voters?

At this point, it seems like it's a trend happening all over the English-speaking world where college educated white voters are moving left. The recent Canadian Election is a perfect example of this

[Skill and Chance]

FWIW Yougkin's margin of victory just fell under 2%.  He's almost certain to stay above 50% in the end, though (which McAuliffe didn't get in his 2013 win). 

[Chips]

6 subdivisions left that still have votes to count. None of them are big enough to make a huge difference.

[EastwoodS]

Honestly….how did Romney only lose loudoun by 4

100,000 new residents or about 25 percent population growth in 10 years. Primarily Hispanics and Asians.

Youngkin did really well with Hispanics tho

Any exit poll claiming Youngkin got above 40 percent with Hispanics is BS. Instead of relying on exit polls we have actual data from majority hispanic areas in NOVA showing around 35-38 Youngkin. Anyway Because Romney only lost Loudoun by four any demographics that is more than 52-48 D will be a net loss for republicans there and contribute to a growing democratic victory margain in Loudoun.

Data shows more than 40% with Hispanics

 Is what "data" are you referencing thing beyond the aforementioned is exit polls and, arguably more accurate, precinct results?

Wouldn’t you agree that the CNN and fox exit polls were both wrong. There’s no way looking at precinct data that Youngkin did worse than Trump with this group. 55% GOP? Still probably sus

 I'm sorry, but I still have no idea what you're basing your data on data on.  Exit polls, but only particular ones?

Precinct data that show shifts towards the GOP. Why don’t democrats stop being in denial about the obvious Hispanics shifts towards republicans? Catholics didn’t stay with democrats forever just like Hispanics won’t either..

OK, yet again, your hypothesis is muddled. As pointed out, precinct data did not show much of a shift of hispanics or at least no greater than voters at large, possibly somewhat less IRC.Is it is still after multiple posts not clear what data you are relying on to stateIs about "obvious" Hispanic shifts any greater than the overall electorate shift

These posts are starting to Is sound a bit more like a political polymic rather than data analysis.

Prince William county you broken record

[jamestroll]

FWIW Yougkin's margin of victory just fell under 2%.  He's almost certain to stay above 50% in the end, though (which McAuliffe didn't get in his 2013 win). 

Yes this isn't a gop state lol

[wbrocks67]

Latest results with more vote added is

Youngkin +1.9%
Sears +1.6%
Miyares +0.8%

Too bad for Herring, he's only down about 28,000 votes right now.

[Adam Griffin]

Do people believe that TMac campaigning in rural western Virginia would have made the difference? I don’t know if it would or not.

Let's say that he bridged half the gap between his performance and Warner 2020's in just the counties on my map where Warner's vote share was 9 percentage points or higher than McAuliffe's. Youngkin would currently be leading by less than 0.1 point. Given #coattails, Ayala would have a shot and Herring would certainly be winning.

The real question is "could somebody like McAuliffe have an impact if he actually campaigned there?". While he's nowhere close to an ideal candidate for these areas, he absolutely could have moved the needle - and if the same had been done throughout most of rural Virginia where the underperformance was smaller but still far too large to be ignored, then the end result could have been a very close win regardless.

But yeah: when your campaign does next to nothing to mobilize or persuade rural voters, you personally show up virtually nowhere in the rural parts of Virginia overall and you only go west of Roanoke once - to tour a closed school and have a closed meeting with "business and city leaders" - you are absolutely leaving tons of votes on the table.

[jamestroll]

I know who I am supporting in 2025.

Sam Rasoul

[Matty]

Honest question

How on earth did the experts know that miyares was going to win with only 60% of the vote in, while he only won by 0.8%?

That is a stunning level of accuracy on the part of wasserman, etc

Imo, they were way premature on that race call

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

https://www.civisanalytics.com/blog/key-takeaways-from-the-2021-virginia-election/ (source)

This table shows which district-level factors were most associated with shifts since 2019. Higher positive values indicate variables where support for Democrats grew since 2019, and negative values indicate variables where support for Democrats declined since 2019.

% Asian = +0.34, % Hispanic = +0.33, % Suburban = +0.28, % nonwhite suburban = + 0.26, % white suburban = +0.24, % under 35 = -0.10, % black = -0.12, % white = -0.12, % nonwhite urban = -0.26, % Native American = -0.26

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

https://twitter.com/rsgore/status/1455980117558239236

Black voters swinging R by more than Latino or Asian voters in a post-Trump election is what I would’ve expected back in 2017 or 2018.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.civisanalytics.com/blog/key-takeaways-from-the-2021-virginia-election/ (source)

This table shows which district-level factors were most associated with shifts since 2019. Higher positive values indicate variables where support for Democrats grew since 2019, and negative values indicate variables where support for Democrats declined since 2019.

% Asian = +0.34, % Hispanic = +0.33, % Suburban = +0.28, % nonwhite suburban = + 0.26, % white suburban = +0.24, % under 35 = -0.10, % black = -0.12, % white = -0.12, % nonwhite urban = -0.26, % Native American = -0.26

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

https://twitter.com/rsgore/status/1455980117558239236

Black voters swinging R by more than Latino or Asian voters in a post-Trump election is what I would’ve expected back in 2017 or 2018.

Does this suggest that suburban voters were actually less likely to switch than urban ones or rural ones? Or am I reading this incorrectly?

[NOVA Green]

https://www.civisanalytics.com/blog/key-takeaways-from-the-2021-virginia-election/ (source)

This table shows which district-level factors were most associated with shifts since 2019. Higher positive values indicate variables where support for Democrats grew since 2019, and negative values indicate variables where support for Democrats declined since 2019.

% Asian = +0.34, % Hispanic = +0.33, % Suburban = +0.28, % nonwhite suburban = + 0.26, % white suburban = +0.24, % under 35 = -0.10, % black = -0.12, % white = -0.12, % nonwhite urban = -0.26, % Native American = -0.26

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

https://twitter.com/rsgore/status/1455980117558239236

Black voters swinging R by more than Latino or Asian voters in a post-Trump election is what I would’ve expected back in 2017 or 2018.

Not quite sure the source on this.... is it a focus group thing or

As I have stated before suspect it would be really difficult to use precinct results for VA-GOV '21 with all of the Centralized Precincts and EV.....

[jamestroll]

Also important to remember this:

Do not run candidates that excite both myself and Non Swing Voter at the same time.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.civisanalytics.com/blog/key-takeaways-from-the-2021-virginia-election/ (source)

This table shows which district-level factors were most associated with shifts since 2019. Higher positive values indicate variables where support for Democrats grew since 2019, and negative values indicate variables where support for Democrats declined since 2019.

% Asian = +0.34, % Hispanic = +0.33, % Suburban = +0.28, % nonwhite suburban = + 0.26, % white suburban = +0.24, % under 35 = -0.10, % black = -0.12, % white = -0.12, % nonwhite urban = -0.26, % Native American = -0.26

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

https://twitter.com/rsgore/status/1455980117558239236

Black voters swinging R by more than Latino or Asian voters in a post-Trump election is what I would’ve expected back in 2017 or 2018.

Not quite sure the source on this.... is it a focus group thing or

As I have stated before suspect it would be really difficult to use precinct results for VA-GOV '21 with all of the Centralized Precincts and EV.....

Hopefully the law gets changed so that they require all votes to be assigned to precincts.

[Adam Griffin]

*tweet*

And keep in mind that this is just vote-share: margin difference between Warner and McAuliffe would be double those figures.

Some fun examples:
Covington (City): Warner 46%, McAuliffe 32%
Henry County: Warner 41%, McAuliffe 29%
Bristol (City): Warner 36%, McAuliffe 26%
Radford (City): Warner 57%, McAuliffe 45%
Richmond County: Warner 42%, McAuliffe 29%

What's really crazy is that in the hardest-hit areas for Ds, the cities slid just as much - and in several cases, even more than the surrounding, more rural environs (see Bristol vs Washington, Covington vs Alleghany, Danville vs Pittsylvania, Galax vs Carroll & Grayson, Radford vs Montgomery, Salem vs Roanoke County, etc).

I thought I'd redo this on a more granular level, showing 1-point increments rather than 3: