Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1195437527194357760

Yeah, playing it smart.

He would be a way stronger candidate than Handel. Sucks to see him out of the race.

Better to keep him healthy for 2022 imo.

McBath will probably have a safer district in 2022. Hard to see him win then.

[Tekken_Guy]

One thing the Alabama situation is making me wonder: suppose, for the sake of argument, the courts rule that 4 Black districts are necessary in Atlanta. What happens then? Would Clyde and possibly Collins be cool with significantly weakening their districts to preserve the gerrymander? Would the GAGOP even consider punting to the courts like Alabama is right now? It's one thing in Alabama because the rest of the state is so red, but you've got to imagine that a special master remap of Atlanta could get dicey fast.

I feel like if the court insisted a redrawing, the Georgia GOP would probably just try to do a map that gets rid of MTG, considering she's not overly popular in the party as a whole.

I feel like MTG would win that 11th.

Can you explain why she’d be favored over Loudermilk?

[Tekken_Guy]

Yeah the GOP is sort of in a tough spot here on all levels.

For the Congressional map, they have a few options:

1. Draw 4 black Atlanta pack seats, at the expense of GA-07. This could be legally problematic, and force a special master to get involved, in which case the entire Atlanta region may become affected and you end up with a 7-7 map.

2. Draw a new black seat in western Atlanta and use the opportunity to lock in a solid 8-6 map. The problem here is which R seat does the GOP eliminate? However, if they're smart they can use it to shore up the current GA-06 and GA-11 to be completely unflippable for Dems this decade.

3. Just ignore the court, but then that forces a special master, which again is bad for them.

What makes this different than Alabama is that the only thing in question was how blue AL-02 would be; the rest of the map was never going to change much. However in GA there's not an easy way to just do a minimal change unpack of GA-13. It's also not obvious which current district would be made into the new black district.

For state legislature, the current gerrymanders don't have all that of a margin for error, especially in the State House. Any creation of new black (and hence new D-leaning districts) is a huge punch to the gerrymander.

Or concede GA-06 in exchange for a super-safe GA-11.

[Tekken_Guy]

What are the odds this new congressional map is enacted?

Guess McBath can just go back home now lol

I would say it's more likely than not the court declares this congresional map as not complying with teh order.

Firstly the district numbers are a bit misleading; 6 is largely a successor to the old 13, and the new 13 is mostly based from GA-07 and shifting GA-04 northwards. What really happened is the old GA-04 and GA-07 were reconfigured to have their black population balance, 6 is not a "new" district.

Then you have the problem that eliminating/cracking the old GA-07 is just replacing a different minority access seat which could be problematic.

There are several potential ways in which this remedial map could be problematic for the GOP in court.

Is it possible Democrats argue that Republicans took advantage of the order and made too many alterations to the white metro seats?

[Tekken_Guy]

What are the odds this new congressional map is enacted?

Guess McBath can just go back home now lol

I would say it's more likely than not the court declares this congresional map as not complying with teh order.

Firstly the district numbers are a bit misleading; 6 is largely a successor to the old 13, and the new 13 is mostly based from GA-07 and shifting GA-04 northwards. What really happened is the old GA-04 and GA-07 were reconfigured to have their black population balance, 6 is not a "new" district.

Then you have the problem that eliminating/cracking the old GA-07 is just replacing a different minority access seat which could be problematic.

There are several potential ways in which this remedial map could be problematic for the GOP in court.

Is it possible Democrats argue that Republicans took advantage of the order and made too many alterations to the white metro seats?

They could, but I think that’s a weaker argument because in order to comply with court order, most of the metro Atlanta seats have to be modified and pushed around quite a bit. It’s not like Alabama where the problem was pretty easily isolated to districts 1 and 2 while the rest of the map stayed very simillar.

Can they argue that the other seats have to roughly maintain their current partisanship? Or is that a partisan gerrymandering case that’s not covered at the federal level?

[Tekken_Guy]

What is median seat in the GA assembly and state senate under the new map?

As I said before, the congressional map was terrible challenge for the Dems. You could see them breaking the GOP gerrymander later in the decade in 6 and 11 but not anymore.

I think there’s still a chance. Those district are only 4 points redder than the outgoing GA-06 and GA-11. Maybe they still break it, or maybe they never were going to in the first place.