2023 Japan Unified local elections

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-10/japan-s-kishida-picks-academic-ueda-to-helm-boj-reports-say

"Kishida Reported to Pick Ueda for BOJ as Amamiya Turns Job Down"

There are all sorts of communication and expectations problems with the appointment of the new head of BOJ.  I think part of the problem is internal LDP disagreements on the issue of monetary policy.  The faction formerly known as the Abe faction is clearly doves (QE today, QE tomorrow, QE forever) while others in LDP are getting worried about a crisis to come if QE does not get wound down.  Because Kishida could not get the LDP on the same page this entire episode has been poorly handled.

[jaichind]

京都市(Kyodo city) assembly election list of candidates so far.  As one can see the main opposition to LDP-KP is JCP although JRP is also growing in strength here.  The regional 京都(Kyodo) party is a Third pole and in theory, should be a natural ally of JPR but they seem to be running candidates against each other and looks like will cut into each other's vote.

[jaichind]

Anti-Vax anti-mask protest in Tokyo today (which I 100% support) seems to feature as their claimed supporters (Trump, Putin, Michael Jackson, Princess Diana, JFK Jr)


This will actually make a difference to me.  After a hiatus since late 2019, I will be making a business trip in April to HK and Tokyo to visit my teams there.  It is just demoralizing to have to put on a mask (as per local law) in the Tokyo office when I meet my team members but that is the law and I will obey it with protest.  And yes, since I did not take the vax I will need to have a PCR test to enter Tokyo.  I have no problem with PRC tests.

[jaichind]

Candidate list so far for 京都(Kyoto) prefecture elections

JRP is not making as big of a push as expected as a result there are more likely walkovers than 2019, especially in rural area which works to the advantage of LDP

[CumbrianLefty]

Anti-Vax anti-mask protest in Tokyo today (which I 100% support) seems to feature as their claimed supporters (Trump, Putin, Michael Jackson, Princess Diana, JFK Jr)

Hmmm, can somebody explain the last two to me?

[jaichind]

Anti-Vax anti-mask protest in Tokyo today (which I 100% support) seems to feature as their claimed supporters (Trump, Putin, Michael Jackson, Princess Diana, JFK Jr)

Hmmm, can somebody explain the last two to me?

I have no idea.  I think they are there because they are "cool"?  I am not sure if these protesters are aware that Russia did have some limited vaccine mandates back in 2021.

[jaichind]

Long time 岩手(Iwate) opposition MLA 高橋元 (Takahashi Gen) who is currently a member of DPP and was first elected in 2007 as a DPJ MLA has joined DIY and will run for DIY for re-election.

[jaichind]

Latest JX PR poll.  Clear shift to the Right since Jan with everyone gaining from CDP RS JCP.  DIY clearly ahead of PNHK as the main anti-system party.

Some of this is a reversion to the mean

LDP       31.7 (+3.4)
KP          5.1  (-0.1)
DIY         1.9 (+0.8 )
PNHK      0.4 (-0.2)
JRP       12.6 (+0.7)
DPP        3.4 (+1.4)
CDP      14.9 (-2.5)
RS         2.0 (-0.3)
SDP       1.1 (+0.2)
JCP        7.3 (-0.4)

[jaichind]

https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA1396W0T10C23A2000000/

JRP leader and current lower house MP from 大阪(Osaka) 馬場伸幸(Nobuyuki Baba) who himself was a member of LDP until 2010 indicated that if a future splint in the LDP occurs JRP will look forward to working with one of the LDP splinter parties.

[jaichind]

https://www.nhk.or.jp/politics/articles/lastweek/95927.html

In the upcoming prefecture assembly elections, it seems, just like the last few election cycles, Rengo will work mostly with DPP but will also promote tactical alliances between DPP and CDP to take on LDP.

[jaichind]

In the upcoming election for 大阪(Osaka) governor it will be the JRP incumbent vs JCP vs a feminist activist 谷口真由美 (Taniguchi Mayumi). 

The local LDP hates the JRP so much most likely they will support the feminist activist 谷口真由美 (Taniguchi Mayumi).   Of course, that will just drive the JRP-LDP marginal voter toward the JRP incumbent and add to his landslide.

It seems there is a split in the Osaka LDP with a good part of the LDP base bolting against voting for a known feminist just to defeat JRP.  It is one thing to take the support of CDP and JCP to defeat JRP but quite another to vote for someone from the woke-Left.  This split would just mean the scale of the JRP landslide just got bigger.

[jaichind]

https://www.sankei.com/article/20230220-2KR5FO4GDVIZRIOWTRFQLK7MII/

Good news for Kishida.  Support for his plan to increase taxes to fund an expansion of the defense budget rises 10.7% to 39.6% in the most recent FNN poll.  This meaningfully reduces his chances of being ousted later this year or needing to push for a midterm election.

[jaichind]

LDP forces are headed for a split in the upcoming 奈良(Nara) governor election.   It seems 高市早苗(Sanae Takaichi) the candidate of the LDP far right in the 2021 LDP Prez election is throwing her weight around in her home prefecture.  She insists on backing a challenger to the pro-LDP incumbent.  The local LDP prefecture caucus is split.  This gives a chance to the JRP candidate to sneak in if the LDP vote is split.  Most likely JCP will run a candidate and get the JCP vote.  It could be the CDP and DPP vote ends up deciding the winner.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval curve is still in the low 30s but slowing moving up

[jaichind]

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20230220/p2a/00m/0na/006000c

"49% want to remove masks more often ahead of rule easing in March: Mainichi poll"

It seems Japan's mask mandates will be gone in mid-March with a near majority planning to stop wearing them.    Excellent, just in time for my business trip to Tokyo in early April.  I have to see if they dropped the vax mandate for travelers so I can skip the PCR test.

[xelas81]

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20230220/p2a/00m/0na/006000c

"49% want to remove masks more often ahead of rule easing in March: Mainichi poll"

It seems Japan's mask mandates will be gone in mid-March with a near majority planning to stop wearing them.    Excellent, just in time for my business trip to Tokyo in early April.  I have to see if they dropped the vax mandate for travelers so I can skip the PCR test.

Poll from Yomiuri suggests opposite.
https://twitter.com/mrjeffu/status/1627329053605654536
https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/election/yoron-chosa/20230219-OYT1T50096/

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anti-Vax anti-mask protest in Tokyo today (which I 100% support) seems to feature as their claimed supporters (Trump, Putin, Michael Jackson, Princess Diana, JFK Jr)

Hmmm, can somebody explain the last two to me?

QAnon has a Japanese off-shoot. That is the best explanation I guess.

[Logical]

The LDP candidate for the Chiba 5th byelection will be Arfiya Eri (英利 アルフィヤ), a half Uyghur woman who worked in the UN and BoJ. She comes from Kono Taro's liberal wing of the LDP and came under fire from the far right when she unsuccessfully ran in the 2022 Upper House election. In 2022 she ran in the national open PR list and only managed to win the 28th place out of 33 LDP candidates. So she's a weak candidate but she'll still likely win because every opposition party is running their own candidate.

[jaichind]

The LDP candidate for the Chiba 5th byelection will be Arfiya Eri (英利 アルフィヤ), a half Uyghur woman who worked in the UN and BoJ. She comes from Kono Taro's liberal wing of the LDP and came under fire from the far right when she unsuccessfully ran in the 2022 Upper House election. In 2022 she ran in the national open PR list and only managed to win the 28th place out of 33 LDP candidates. So she's a weak candidate but she'll still likely win because every opposition party is running their own candidate.

This district is fairly urban (right next to Tokyo) and one of the stronger districts for the JRP in the prefecture so it is almost certain that JRP will want to contest here.  Once that takes place it is very hard for LDP to lose this seat under the current circumstances.

[jaichind]

Anti-Vax anti-mask protest in Tokyo today (which I 100% support) seems to feature as their claimed supporters (Trump, Putin, Michael Jackson, Princess Diana, JFK Jr)

Hmmm, can somebody explain the last two to me?

QAnon has a Japanese off-shoot. That is the best explanation I guess.

I suspect they do not know that Putin is actually pro-Vax and in 2021 there were some cases where Russia had a Vax mandates.  They attach themselves to Putin and Trump mostly for their anti-globalist anti-universalist messages.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anti-Vax anti-mask protest in Tokyo today (which I 100% support) seems to feature as their claimed supporters (Trump, Putin, Michael Jackson, Princess Diana, JFK Jr)

Hmmm, can somebody explain the last two to me?

QAnon has a Japanese off-shoot. That is the best explanation I guess.

I suspect they do not know that Putin is actually pro-Vax and in 2021 there were some cases where Russia had a Vax mandates.  They attach themselves to Putin and Trump mostly for their anti-globalist anti-universalist messages.

Yep.

[jaichind]

Candidate list so far for 千葉(Chiba) prefecture assembly elections.  No sign of JRP coming out in full force here.  CDP clearly the main opposition to LDP-KP.

[jaichind]

A recently passed bill on Unification Church includes a clause about a process where children can get back money donated by their parents to a religious organization.  But this seems to apply only if the children are still dependents of their parents.


I like how they put this clause in there given the situation with Abe's assassin.  Typical mistake of trying to cater a law around a corner case issue that is unlikely to take place again.

[jaichind]

List of 長野Nagano) prefecture assembly candidates.  Outside of urban areas, it seems JCP is the main opponent of LDP.

[jaichind]

https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/society/obituaries/20230302-94573/

"Ryuho Okawa, Founder of Happy Science Dies at Age 66"

Founder of Happy Science and leader of HRP passes away.  I not not sure HRP will survive this.   This is a boon for DIY and PNHK.