British Local Elections, May 2024

[Oryxslayer]

I'm sure we'll be able to go into more details when things get closer (and if there's no coinciding GE) however the year is likely be transformative despite the limited number of elections. In many of the 1/3 councils this is the 2021 "Johnson-Wave" class of councilors up. The shear overexposure compared to even a average year means there are a lot of incoming Tory losses. In many places it is this class that has maintained conservative control, even as they lost seats and seen reversal waves for Labour. A few examples:

Harltepool and it's by-election were the capstones of 2021. After Labour swept 9/12 seats up in 2023 (and were 2 votes away from 10/12) things essentially tied between the governing Conservatives + Indies versus Labour. And the class now up is 7 Con, 3 Indie, 2 Lab.

Thurrock had to declare bankruptcy under the pandemic-era Tory leadership. This led to Labour making 5 gains and going 9/16 despite it being a difficult set of seats up. It's presently under a Tory minority of 23 to 19 Labour and 7 Indies of various colors. The 2024 class is 11 Con, 4 Lab, 2 Indie.

Dudley is interesting because If the near-identical 2022 and 2023 elections were to have decided council control then things would be tied or near-tied. But the 23-3 Tory sweep in 2021 keep things safely in their hands. Boundary changes mean not just the 2021 class but every councilor is up, potentially allowing for even more dramatic changes.

The Dudley situation is similar in nearby Reddich, Cannock Chase, and Nuneton, Nuneton notably had no election in 2023 so the council is still absurdly Tory, even though that electoral foundation has likely collapsed.

Then in Tamworth where Labour had that surge in 2023, every councilor up is a Tory or ex-Tory.



I'll also mention that, like you said, the Police Commissioners are posts nobody cares about in normal circumstances. But precisely because nobody cares about them they are good generic ballot tests. In 2021 the Tory wave allowed them to push into normally Labour turf. Now we'll be able to see how deep are the Tory losses.

[Oryxslayer]

I think the issue for the Greens in Bristol is that there are still Conservative seats held after 2021. Like Brighton last year, Labour should probably be looking to these as opportunities. Which means the Greens would need to make significant gains as well.

On paper I think the best place for the Greens is Stroud, barring some local issue I don't know about (or them coming from nowhere like in Lewes or East Herts last year). All seats up, Greens have minority control, lots of Tory seats to lose, and local Labour seems to have issues.

[Oryxslayer]

Bradford

Lab 53, Con 15, Green 8, Lib Dem 5, independents 9. The latter are in various factions: 4 are the "Bradford Independent Group", two of whom were elected as Labour and two as Independent; 2 are the "Bradford South Independents", elected as Conservatives in 2021; 2 are just "Independent", one elected as Labour and one as a Conservative; 1 is an "Ilkey Independent" (sic) who was once a Conservative but was most recently elected as an Independent.

Anyway, lots of those Independent seats are up for election: the Ilkey Independent, both Bradford South Independents and one of the Bradford Independent Group. The Tories are defending three seats in wards they lost last year.  I suspect that Independents may do quite well here, but not well enough to threaten Labour's majority.

Bradford here gets at what I would call the second commonality of this small class of local elections: Labour infighting/dissatisfaction. (The other common theme is Tory losses from 2021 overexposure, who could have guessed) There's a surprising amount of councils up which have seen abnormal levels of Labour defections to Independents, sometimes with the Indies forming a new majority with other parties. Burnley is the most striking example. In there, Bradford, and a number of other places the defections are cause of the official Labour party response to the war in Gaza. The defectors in those situations are mostly Muslim. In others though the dividing issues are older and more local.

How the electorate responds to this type of infighting is uncertain. Oftentimes when councilors defect and lose the official label versus a dominant party - and Labour right now is going to be very dominant in these areas - the official candidates just retake their seats. These defections though are coordinated locally, and the issues fueling them may be reflected by the electorate. The Gaza defectors in particular no doubt hope that Muslim-majority wards care about that singular issue even at the local level where things are more complex.

[Oryxslayer]

Guess I will start with a more general analysis here. If anyone has local knowledge of scandal or conflict that isn’t instantaneously apparent, please comment in, cause that can change these things.

All Up:

North Tyneside: 48 Lab – 6 Con – 6 Indies (18 Lab – 3 Con in 2023)

Partial:

Gateshead: 17 Lab – 5 LD [Council: 49 Lab – 17 LD] (15 Lab – 7 LD in 2023)

Hartlepool: 7 Con – 2 Lab – 3 Indies [Council: 17 Lab – 12 Con – 1 Other – 6 Indies] (9 Lab – 2 Con – 1 Indie in 2023)

Newcastle-upon-Tyne: 18 Lab  - 6 LD – 2 indies [Council: 48 Lab – 23 LD – 7 Indies] (14 Lab  - 10 LD – 3 indies in 2023)

South Tyneside: 14 Lab – 2 Greens – 1 Con – 1 Indie [Council: 38 Lab – 9 Greens – 1 Con – 6 Indies] (11 Lab – 4 Greens – 3 Indies in 2023)

Sunderland: 12 Lab – 6 Con – 4 LD – 1 RefUK – 2 Indies [Council: 47 Lab – 13 Con – 12 LD – 1 RefUK – 2 Indies] (17 Lab – 5 LD – 3 Con in 2023)




Current councilors Up. In North Tyneside, where boundary changes force everyone up, the oldest class is given priority.



2023 Results in these wards.

It’s natural to start in the Northeast since the council’s there make a point of reporting first. However, these contests are not that interesting. While there technically are enough Labour seats up that they can lose control in all five Tyneside and Wear councils, in practice this is a statistical impossibility. There are enough super-safe wards that control is not seriously in danger anywhere. Labour was dominant here even during their bad years, and this is not a bad year. However, Labour would be fortunate to be net neutral or positive when it comes to total councilor numbers in the subregion. In four of the five councils Labour either lost a handful of seats or remained stagnant in the comparable year of 2023. Those losses went to the Lib-Dems in Gateshead and Newcastle, the Greens in South Tyneside, and various independents everywhere. Repetition though is not a guarantee: Lib-Dem gains in Gateshead were supposedly off immediate council policy that year, and the Greens in 2023 put significant effort into South Tyneside.  

The one exception to the story of single-digit losses in the five Tyneside and Wear councils is Sunderland. As will become more apparent elsewhere, this is the 2021 class of councilors up for reelection, and the 2021 local elections were a Tory wave that pushed Labour well below their floor in many areas. Especially since now the environment has reversed. Local issues previously emerged for Sunderland Labour at the same time as the Conservatives were surging post-Brexit, leading to numerous losses in every direction. Though by the time the council could fall to NOC, in 2022, these issues had reversed. In 2023 they made gains and the 2024 class is even more exposed to Labour advances than 2023. The one thing to note is that while Labour made gains of the Torys and other parties, they so far failed to take a ward that fell to the Lib-Dems. In fact, the Lib-Dems have also gained at the Conservative’s expense. These factors allowed the Lib-Dems to become the second largest party in Sunderland after 2023, but defections mean they once more are looking to take back this position.

Hartlepool is the final northeastern council up in 2024 and it’s entirely different from the other 5. The council fell to NOC in 2019 and since then was governed by right-wing Independents and the Conservatives. Labour defied the odds won a landside in 2023, winning 9/12 wards and were 3 votes away from winning 10/12. This tied the council at 18 Labour to 18 Conservatives and Indies. A subsequent defection put Labour at 17, but the overall coalition math remains the same. This class of councilors has 10 of the 18 coalition members up. A Labour result not even half as good as 2023 will give them control, and the 2024 environment looks very much like 2023. Labour therefore should by Very Likely to take control.

[Oryxslayer]

Two weeks is enough, especially given that no Tory has any chance of actually winning there.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1770950610294055007?t=4LRqklW1Ejyki3Ol...

They instantly went to the default.

[Oryxslayer]

These elections are going to be brutal for the Conservatives. Sky News will be extremely fun to watch.

they dont have that much seats to begins with this time

Weren’t these seats last up in 2021 when they made gains?

Yes. Even if May 2nd turned out to be a decent night for the Tories (which it won’t), they’d still be going backwards (sometimes significantly) because their 2021 results were so good.

This is importantly true, I think some early prognostications have them losing half of their seats up.

However,  it think what the initial post I'd getting at is that there are not that many seats up. There's about 2600 seats up according to my count, which seems like a lot until you compare it to 2023s 8000 and 2022s 6800.

[Oryxslayer]

Both Midlands

Consolidating the Midlands here cause when it comes to councils there is almost nothing in the East Midlands up this cycle.

All Up:

Cannock Chase: 18 Con – 18 Lab – 5 Green (9 Lab – 4 Green – 4 Con in 2023)

Dudley: 42 Con – 26 Lab – 1 LD – 3 Indies (13 Lab – 12 Con in 2023)

Nuneaton and Bedworth: 27 Con – 5 Lab – 2 Green (last in 2022)

Redditch: 16 Con – 12 Lab – 1 LD (6 Lab – 4 Con in 2023)

Worcester: 13 Lab – 11 Green – 7 Con – 4 LD (5 Green – 4 Lab – 2 LD in 2023)

Partial:

Coventry: 12 Lab – 6 Con [Council: 37 Lab – 15 Con – 2 Greens] (13 Lab – 4 Con – 1 Green in 2023)

Lincoln: 5 Con – 5 Lab – 1 LD [Council: 20 Lab – 9 Con – 4 LD] (8 Lab – 2 LD – 1 Con in 2023)

Northeast Lincolnshire: 11 Con – 1 LD [Council: 27 Con – 9 Lab – 3 LD – 3 Indies] (7 Con – 5 Lab – 2 Indies – 1 LD in 2023)

Rugby: 9 Con – 3 LD – 2 Lab [Council: 20 Con – 12 Lab – 10 LD] (6 Con – 5 Lab – 3 LD in 2023)

Sandwell: 17 Lab – 4 Con – 3 Indies [Council: 60 Lab – 8 Con – 4 Indies] (22 Lab – 2 Con in 2023)

Solihull: 10 Con – 5 Green – 2 Indies [Council: 29 Con – 12 Greens – 6 LD – 4 Indies] (10 Con – 4 Greens – 3 LD in 2023)

Tamworth: 7 Con – 3 Indies [Council: 14 Con – 9 Lab – 7 Indies] (8 Lab – 2 Con in 2023)

Walsall: 12 Con – 3 Lab – 5 Indies [Council: 37 Con – 12 Lab – 11 Indies] (13 Con – 7 Lab in 2023)

Wolverhampton: 15 Lab – 5 Con [Council: 47 Lab – 13 Con] (All up in 2023)





Current councilors Up. When boundary changes force everyone up, the oldest elected councilor is given priority in a ward.





2023 Results in these wards. When all councilors were up, the best performing councilor is given priority in a ward.

For many reasons the Midlands to me an outsider seems the region of unknown battlegrounds. Many councils either are too close to easily expect a winner based on past data, control is dependent on the politics of cooperation and coalitions, or both. Most of these councils cover GE battlegrounds, incentivizing the parties to use these contests as trail runs for later in the year. Perhaps when things get closer to voting a clearer picture will emerge.

Perhaps then it would be better to start with the situations that need limited explanation. Coventry seems to be rather stagnant these days, with the four western Conservative wards unlikely to change hands, and the same for many eastern Labour ones. Competition will likely focus on the few marginal wards, including the two Tory held wards of Cheylesmore and Sherbourne that Labour won in 2023, and Holbrook where the Greens already hold 2/3 seats. In Lincoln Labour face local headwinds over canceling the city’s past Christmas market and having lost their party and council leader of almost 25 years. However, they still are positioned to go on the offense against Tory overexposure from 2021, even if there may be some losses to the Lib-Dems. Labour mathematically can’t lose control in Sandwell or Wolverhampton. If anything, there are opportunities for growth in both, despite some wards having decent Muslim populations and Sandwell previously being among the most indebted councils and requiring intervention.
 
On the other side of the spectrum, Solihull and Walsall should be safely in Conservative hands – albeit for different reasons. Solihull is one of the few places that bucked the national trend in 2023. At the time the local Tories saw this success as the consequence of an extremely localized campaign. A divided opposition (that still persists in 2024 with Green defectors up) though no doubt also played a part. With numerous safe wards and the mayoral contest potentially the Conservative base a reason to turn out, Solihull will likely stay Blue. Walsall on paper should be a Labour target. In practice they failed to make the gains necessary in 2022 and 2023 to seriously rival Tory strength in the northern wards. Now half the Labour caucus, including its former leader, have gone Independent over the national party’s response to Gaza. These councilors are mostly Muslim and are responding to the wishes to their constituents. In this council though, these defections only lock in the Tory majority.

Voters are likely to give Labour a new majority in both Cannock chase and Redditch. Electorally the two are in the same situation. Both saw large Labour gains in 2023. In Cannock Chase this allowed Labour to enter an arrangement with the Greens, in Redditch this left the Tories hanging on by a thread. In both cases half the remaining Tory councilors were elected during the 2021 wave: 9/18 in Canncok Chase (10/19 if we include a defector to Labour), 8/16 in Redditch. In both cases this class is now up for re-election with all other councilors thanks to boundary changes. In both cases Labour repeating their 2023 results on the new lines will wipe away many of the 2021 Tories and given them a majority.

The Tories have governed Rugby uninterrupted for over 20 years, either in a majority or minority. What has changed since the last time Labour led is the sorting of opposition voters and growth in the urban areas. In 2023 the council tied at 21 seats each between the Tories and the Lib-Dems. The Conservatives then proceeded to lose a ward in a December by-election to the Lib-Dems, leaving them in a minority. On paper Labour should take the three wards of Admirals and Cawston, Coton and Boughton, and Newbold and Brownsover – they won all three in 2022 and 2023. This will put the council at 17 Conservatives, 15 Labour, and 10 Liberal-Democrats. Both Labour and the Lib-Dems have a few reach targets; if they get these then Labour could become the largest party here for the first time in 23 years. Either way, a Labour and Lib-Dem coalition seems likely.

Tamworth was the site of a massive and surprising Labour surge in 2023, with them winning eight of the ten wards and then building off this foundation to win the Westminster By-Election. This, however, was not enough to take power since Labour’s preceding results were so poor. The 2021 wave intake was all Conservative, and while some have defected, Labour is starting from nothing. Repeating 2023 will give Labour a majority, but can Labour repeat their success? Many blamed former reprehensible MP Chris Pincher for the poor Tory brand here, and now he’s gone. If Labour misses the majority and just become the largest party, will the ex-Tory Independents let them oust the Conservative minority in favor of a Labour one?

Worcester voters made Labour the largest party and elected no Conservatives in 2023. This allowed Labour and the surging Greens to form a coalition administration. Now after boundary changes, every councilor is up, prompting many questions. Will the Tories get wiped away once more? The ward changes are mostly neutral on this front – it will be their own failures that potentially doom them. Who will be the largest party? The two coalition partners are now rivals for leadership. It is the Greens that are surging, but the new lines and potential Tory losses are more likely to benefit Labour based on past results.

Northeast Lincolnshire looks better for Labour than it is. Yes, the party has targets, but it has fallen a long way since Brexit. Rural Lincolnshire voting patterns have crept in and this is one place the Tories have made Leave voters their own. The one piece of good news is that the Great Grimsby constituency doesn’t contain these problem wards, but these outlying wards are the anchor for Tory control. If Labour, the Lib-Dems, and independent factions repeat 2023 they will tie the council 21-21. Can Labour do better than 2023 and break the Tory majority? Can they then get everyone to prefer them forming an administration rather than the Conservatives?

Dudley is electorally close. All councilors are up on new ward lines, albeit these lines barely changed from their predecessors. In 2023 and 2022 Labour and the Conservatives each won 12 of the wards. However, Labour then lost a seat in a By-Election to the Lib-Dems. All this is to say that Labour should make significant gains off the 2021 wave class of councilors, but the benchmark is 36 Conservative – 35 Labour – 1 Lib-Dem. This would be a Tory minority. So again, Labour must improve on their 2023 wave to take control. The Lib-Dems are trying to work with various Independents to defeat Tories in some of wards Labour struggle in, but the party has limited expectations. This is both a GE battleground and one of the biggest prizes in the local elections, so expect a lot of resources and attention to go towards the Black Country.

The biggest mystery is Nuneaton. Even as the parliamentary seat slipped away from Labour last decade, the party still cleaned up locally. Then in 2018, 2021, and 2022, the Conservatives swept the council almost in totality. There were no 2023 elections here. Boundary changes mean every seat is up. Like in Tamworth last year, Labour is starting very close to their floor. Though if Labour have already shown they can sweep (in some cases old) bellwethers like Tamworth, Reddich, Cannock Chase, and Swindon, Nuneaton voters should behave similarly – right?

[Oryxslayer]

To be fair, it already has benefited them in a limited way, when the Tories won the mayoralty in Bedford on massive vote spilt even though history shows Labour and the Lib-Dems there mostly team up against the Conservatives in past runoffs.

This cycle though I would be surprised if the system changes gave them anything that they wouldn't have won on the prior system, unless results are extremely tight. The electorate is just going to be that anti-Conservative. Maybe in some places like Bristol things get weirder than under two-rounds cause of perceived fptp consolidation.

 

[Oryxslayer]

How do people think Labour will do Lincoln and Coventry? Labour lost one seat to the Green in Coventry last year and two to the Liberal Democrats in Lincoln.

 Could Lincoln go to no overall control?

So you want a bit more info than what I provided above? Both don't really seem competitive, because remember - this is the 2021 Tory Wave class even in the Labour areas - but...

Coventry: The Greens took Holbrook ward in 2022 on a fairly large swing from Labour to get initial foot in the door. They targeted the ward again in 2023 and got a second seat, but this time by 2%. So it's no guarantee they can go 3/3 - Labour fought hard against them in 2023 and were disappointed they lost the seat. It's not a guaranteed loss. Maybe the Greens will come from nowhere in other wards, but that is their target.

On the Conservative side they hold the wards of Cheylesmore and Sherbourne here, wards Labour won in 2023. Those are targets. The four west wards seem safer for the Conservatives, even with the odd Labour councilor elected for Westwood ward in 2022, so them falling would be an improvement for Labour on 2023.

Lincoln: Look at the seats up. Labour only need to hold 2 of their 5 seats to retain control. 4 of the 5 up they hold every councilor in the three classes, and previously won by not-so-insignificant margins. Obviously a local wave can sweep them out, but barring that control is safe.

Even though local Labour have seemingly made a feew missteps, this again is a year they have more targets than defense. I found a quote of the local Conservative leader saying that they do not expect to outrun the national headwinds. Labour won the four Tory wards of Birchwood, Hartsholme, Minster, and Moorland in 2023, and 2 of those 4 in 2022.

The Lib-Dems have better prospects. The party has been gaining ground over the past few years in the eastern corner and that second Glebe ward they won in 2023 will probably flip. They however are starting below 10% everywhere else. If there is actually any noticeable local backlash, they will probably be gaining votes everywhere, but might only see flips in those same Tory wards from before.

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

I know there was a lot of backlash in Lincoln due to the canceling of the Christmas market.

I mean local backlashes absolutely could be a thing, we just don't know right now if there will be an electoral impact. That will manifest closer to E-Day when people have reports from doorsteps. The issue with a hypothetical local wave is that taking 100% of their seats when Labour are up by so much nationally and playing on favored turf is just extremely hard. For comparison Labour came finished first in half the Slough wards last year, and held a large chunk of turf in Stockton but failed to make seemingly easy advances. The Lib-Dems would likely be the beneficiary of a potential local wave, but the gains would start manifesting among 'homeless' Tory voters first looking for better options. In the end, it's the 1/3 yearly class system that makes such instant changes hard.

[Oryxslayer]

The entire Labour group on Pendle council have left the party, a few days before nominations close for this year's election.

why did they leave?

The official complaint is national party direction conflicting with local views.

The real semi-unspoken reason is likely the same reason that certain Labour councilors in other northwest councils have chosen to defect in the past months - Gaza. I think almost every Labour councilor in Pendle has a Muslim background, and all represent the southern wards where this population is prevalent and is going to make their voice heard.

This isn't the first time something like this has happened. Nearly the exact same thing happened in adjacent Burnley, just several months back. All the councilors with Muslim backgrounds went Indie, breaking Labour's minority admin, then formed an administration on their own with the Greens and Lib-Dems.


Like I said further back, these coordinated defections are one of the questions for the local elections. Nobody can excuse the councilors right now for following their own views or constituents. That is local politics. But this is foreign policy. Local councilors really have no influence on such things. And Labour are still going to be punching above their weight in May. Defectors here and elsewhere would have failed and just proven they can be ignored if Labour just walks back right into most of these wards. Alternatively, if Muslim voters want these type of councilors, they have the opportunity to kick out Labour in certain other areas for similar candidates.

Which brings me to the next point. Underlying everything is the question of access to local power. In these northwest councils the defectors can keep their positions without the party label, just cause of the council math. In other places, like Walsall, Labour has no chance at taking power so the councilors can defect without changing their status. But in places like say Rochdale where defections would not change the calculus of the Labour majority, and would just be councilors removing themselves from the decision process, this has not occurred. But voter behavior should be the same in theory, whether that will lead to Labour holding/retaking the wards on reduced majorities or losing ground to Muslim independents.

[Oryxslayer]

Important to remember, like in Pendle and several other councils, the 10 Labour defectors in Oxford are cause of Labour's Gaza policy. Unlike Pendle and the Northwest though half of said defectors seem to lack Muslim backgrounds and are likely more motivated by the student angle on the issue. Also, Oxford is not like certain other councils where this has played out. While there is a decent (8.7% according to the 2021 Census) Muslim population - which is why there is representation on the council - this is far below and not comparable to other councils where this divide has played out.

Given all these factors and how poor student turnout usually is for local elections, there is less ambiguity then in Pendle, Walsall, Burnley, or elsewhere. Labour returning to their wards is much easier to imagine and maybe even likely. In contrast to those other places though it is also easier to imagine the overall electorate turning on Labour in favor of another party, say both Labour and ex-Labour losing both old and new ground to the Greens.


More interesting IMO when it comes to defectors is Stroud and Hastings. Stround has saw mass Labour defections in 2022 seemingly initially prompted by the national parties choice of parliamentary candidate. But in doing so they let the Greens into power and now several years later a good Green campaign could take their seats. Meanwhile in Hastings the council delegation was seemingly divided and rivalrous from the start. The biggest group of defectors still came cause of Gaza, but Hastings has a miniscule Muslim population and the defectors were not Muslim. Gaza was just an excuse for other issues, rather than the other way around. The question is whether these longer-term fratricideal issues will matter to voters.

[Oryxslayer]

Let us also not forget that the 2017 local elections took place before May choose to blow herself up. They were one of the many points of evidence at the time that calling an election had been the right decision politically. In raw percentage terms the results of that election were just as good for the Tories as 2021.

So even though Street and Houchen eventually became actors with their own profiles, it's hard to not conclude that both were products of a wave environment, and then secured reelection in part cause of another wave environment.

[Oryxslayer]

East of England

All Up:
Basildon: 26 Con – 10 Lab – 1 Others – 5 Indies (6 Con – 6 Lab – 1 Others – 1 Indie in 2023).

Brentwood: 18 Con – 17 LD – 2 Lab (8 LD – 4 Con – 1 Lab in 2023).

Castle Point: Council: 8 Con – 31 Others in two groups – 1 Indie (7 Others – 6 Others – 1 Con in 2023). 

Epping Forest: 34 Con – 13 Others – 5 LD – 2 Greens – 4 Indies (14 Con – 3 LD – 1 Indie in 2023)

Harlow: 21 Con – 12 Lab (6 Lab – 5 Con in 2023)

North Hertfordshire: 19 Lab – 15 LD – 15 Con (8 LD – 5 Lab – 3 Con in 2023)

Stevenage: 24 Lab – 9 Con – 6 LD (9 Lab – 2 Con – 2 LD in 2023)

Partial:

Broxbourne: 9 Con – 1 Lab [27 Con – 3 Lab] (9 Con – 1 Lab in 2023)

Cambridge: 8 Lab – 5 LD – 1 Green [Council: 24 Lab – 12 LD – 4 Greens – 1 Con – 1 Indie] (10 Lab – 4 LD – 2 Greens in 2023)

Colchester: 7 Con – 5 Lab – 5 LD [Council: 19 Con – 16 LD – 14 Lab – 2 Greens] (6 Con – 6 LD – 4 Lab – 1 Green in 2023)

Ipswich: 9 Lab – 4 Con – 1 LD – 3 Indies [Council: 33 Lab – 9 Con – 3 LD – 3 Indies] (12 Lab – 3 Con – 1 LD in 2023)

Norwich: 6 Lab – 4 Greens – 1 LD – 2 Indies [19 Lab – 13 Greens – 3 LD – 4 Indies] (7 Lab – 5 Greens – 1 LD in 2023)

Peterborough: 14 Con - 2 Lab – 1 LD – 3 Others – 2 Indies [Council: 22 Con – 14 Lab – 8 LD – 2 Greens – 10 Others in 2 groups – 4 Indies] (8 Con – 6 Lab – 4 LD – 2 Green – 1 Other in 2023)

Rochford: 5 Con – 1 LD – 1 other – 6 Indies [Council: 12 Con – 8 LD – 1 Green – 7 Others – 11 Indies] (5 Con – 4 LD – 3 Others – 1 Indie in 2023)

Thurrock: 11 Con – 4 Lab – 2 Indies [Council: 23 Con – 19 Lab – 7 Indies] (9 Lab – 4 Con – 3 Indies in 2023)

Southend-on-Sea: 11 Con – 3 Lab – 1 LD – 2 Indies [Council: 22 Con – 16 Lab – 4 LD – 1 Green – 8 Indies] (7 Lab – 5 Con – 1 LD – 1 Green – 3 Indies in 2023)

St. Albans: 15 LD – 2 Con – 1 Green [Council: 48 LD – 4 Con -  3 Greens – 1 Indie] (15 LD – 2 Greens – 1 Con in 2023)

Three Rivers: 7 LD – 4 Con – 1 Lab – 1 Indie [Council: 21 LD – 12 Con – 3 Lab – 2 Greens – 1 Indie] (8 LD – 4 Con – 1 Lab – 1 Green in 2023)

Watford: 8 LD – 4 Lab [Council: 27 LD – 9 Lab] (9 LD – 3 Lab in 2023]

Welwyn Hatfield: 14 Con – 2 LD [Council: 22 Con – 14 LD – 12 Lab] (6 Lab – 6 LD – 4 Con in 2023)



Current councilors Up. When boundary changes force everyone up, the oldest elected councilor is given priority in a ward.



2023 Results in these wards. When all councilors were up, the best performing councilor is given priority in a ward.

The Liberal Democrats and localist alliances are a force in many councils here, so it is often not appropriate to just talk about a one versus one election. I think it is best therefore to start with where things are duopolistic, and then move on to places where things are more complicated.

The Conservatives govern 7 of 20 councils up for election in the East of England, and only two are safe. They mathematically cannot lose Broxbourne and it would be a shock if voters chose something other than the consistent-for-a-decade result of Conservative taking 9 wards and 1 for Labour. The situation is similar in adjacent Epping Forest, even though all seats are up under new lines. There is no established opposition to the Conservatives in most wards. The largest force is a resident association that confines itself solely to Loughton, where it presently holds and should retain every seat available. The Greens surged in neighboring North Hertfordshire under a similar electoral situation in 2023, but right now there is little evidence of repetition. Additionally, when the Greens launched their campaign in Bristol they focused on urban issues and mentioned urban councils, not Essex.

Labour for its part cannot mathematically lose control of Ipswich, and statistically are very unlikely have anything to fear in Stevenage where all councilors are up under new lines. In Ipswich the small Tory delegation even has issues internally with defections, one going Indie and then choosing to stand under ReformUK rather than as an Indie. The non-Labour groups are even here noticeably overexposed compared to 2023 and 2022 thanks to the 2021 wave, so Labour gains seem likely.

Labour should easily take control in Thurrock. Beyond the issues faced by the Conservatives nationally, Thurrock is still plagued by the debt of almost £500 million built up over several years of failed investments. The Conservatives did face a significant backlash in 2023 over their mismanagement, but the insulated 2021 Tory wave allowed them to keep their majority. Only that majority became a minority after defections over budget disagreements surrounding the councils’ economic woes. The peculiar nature of how the rotation system, with some wards up in one year but not the next, means that Labour just repeating their direct results from 2023 would only get them a minority. But they have a wider field of targets than just former victories, some which had no election in 2023, so making six gains or more for a majority is not that unlikely.

Harlow is simpler than Thurrock. All councilors are up on new ward lines. The Tories have held power ever since they swept ten wards to Labour’s one in 2021. That class is now up along with everyone else. This is one of the places where Labour would have lost if everything was up in 2022 but won based on the 2023 results. The ward changes are rather significant in certain areas, and depending on if and how voters split their ballots council control could end up decided by a single seat.

Then there is Basildon, which is also all up under new lines. It remains divided by the A127. Basildon town south of the road is mainly Labour versus Conservative, whereas Billericay and Wickford north of the road are much more Conservative. In the past Lib-Dems had a base of support in the north, but now their only challenge comes from the Wickford localists in the 3 – becoming 2.5 – Wickford wards. The presence of independent counselors complicates matters. Labour are not going to become the largest party in Basildon barring something extremely shocking. Every councilor being up though does allow for the possibility of undoing the poor 2021 result and the sub-par 2022 one, breaking the majority and potentially allowing for a coalition depending on the Wickford Group’s results and opinions.

When it comes to Liberal Democrat controlled councils, they mathematically cannot lose control in Watford and St. Albans. Labour is the opposition in the former and the Tories the most prominent group in the latter. Neither council presently appears poised for a massive change in composition from the present Lib-Dem dominance. The third council in the region with a Lib-Dem majority is Three Rivers, controlled in various forms by the Lib-Dems for several decades. While their majority is slim, it has proven itself to be solid, with the nationalized 2015 being the only recent time any real number of seats changed hands. Dickinsons ward though will probably go Green, like it did in 2022 and 2023.
 
The final simple council is Brentwood, where all the councilors are up after boundary changes. It is currently under a Lib-Dem Labour coalition, but the Tories are the largest party by one seat. The Lib-Dems won the most seats in 2022 and then swept in 2023 but could not knock out the Tories since half their councilors came from the 2021 wave. Now they are up.

Now for the complex councils. Cambridge and Norwich are similar in that the Conservatives have little voice and politics is tri-cornered between the Labour, the Lib-Dems, and the Greens. Both are places in 2023 where Labour lost a few wards and the Greens made net gains. In Cambridge this was backlash to their Congestion Changes plan, now halted. In Nowich this seemingly was just the Greens slowly consolidating their base as in the past. The one major difference though is that while both cities elected a Labour majority in 2023, Norwich Labour lost 4 councilors to defections and now has a minority. While these councilors did defect at the same time as others across the country cause of Gaza, they stressed their choices were more multifaceted and that they had more issues with the national leadership than just this singular policy decision. Either way, two of the defectors are up and if Labour matches 2023 (lose Wenson ward to the Greens, take back the two defectors) they will regain the majority by 1. These two councils though are both places where activist disappointment could lead to currently unexpended Green gains.

Colchester is a three way between Labour, the Lib-Dems and the Tories. Unlike the subsequent councils though, the situation in Colchester is stagnant. The Tories have mostly been kicked out of the urban wards, and until the national mood or local distribution of power changes, Labour and the Lib-Dems will still work together. Right now, the Lib-Dems lead. Since most of the tight wards in 2023 were between Labour and the Lib-Dems though, there is a small possibility of two net Labour gains making them the coalition’s leader. An interesting story to follow is that both the Labour and Lib-Dem’s selected GE candidates are standing as councilors for reelection in May.

All councilors are up thanks to boundary changes in North Hertfordshire. Currently the council is a Labour-led coalition with the Lib-Dems. Labour has the most to gain from all councilors standing: most of the 2021 Tory wave councilors are in Letchworth wards won by Labour in 2022 and 2023. Though holding every current ward after some less-than favorable changes, denying the Lib-Dems ground, and netting seven seats to take the majority is a difficult albeit not impossible proposition.

Welwyn Hatfield to the immediate south is a similar situation on paper, in practice power is likely to shift. The Conservatives are the largest group, but the Lib-Dems lead a coalition administration with Labour. Both of these things though are the product of 2021. In 2022 and 2023 both Labour and the Lib-Dems each won the six wards to the Conservative’s four, with every ward voted the exact same both years. In 2021 though the Tories swept 14 or 16 wards. If 2022 and 2023 repeat themselves the council ties at 18 councilors each for the Lib-Dems and Labour, followed by 12 Tories. Which would be a complex situation. Complicating matters is the Greens, who at their launch stated they wanted to target wards in Welwyn Hatfield.

Southend-on-Sea is a mostly dichotomous council, but the Lib-Dems, the Greens, and Indies all have a presence. Over the last decade the council has bounced between administrations backed by the two leading parties. 2023 for example saw Labour net one seat versus the Tories and top the overall vote, but the reshuffling within the other groups allowed the Conservatives to form their own administration. This displaced Labour’s coalition that had governed since 2019. Like so many other places thought, the 2021 wave is what protects the Tories. If the 2022 or 2023 results were repeated Labour would pick up 4 wards, and the Tories lose 5 to 6. Labour could very easily become the largest party (I don’t think this has ever happened here, the Lib-Dems were the beneficiaries of the 90s environment) and form a minority administration.

In terms of complexity, Peterborough stands out among councils up this cycle. Two localist groups, Independents, and both the Lib-Dems and Greens have decent cohorts. The Conservatives only hold their position as the largest group with about 35% of councilors after mass defections and suspensions almost a year ago. This majority is really only held in place cause the Tories won 14 of 20 wards during the 2021 wave. Labour may make gains and become the largest party for the first time in 25 years thanks to the Tory infighting, but further fragmentation would be a better description of the likely council outcome.

Finally, there is the two councils dominated by alternative groupings. In Rochford there is a divide between the Residents association and the Independents, but both still work with the Lib-Dems against the Tories. Among the councilors up the Independents are overrepresented, with the Localists and Lib-Dems underrepresented compared to past results. So the Conservatives could very well make gains. They got kicked out in 2023 though off a local backlash to local issues, and that could keep the Tories from threatening the coalition.

In Castle Point almost every councilor is in a localist group: either the well-established Canvey Island Independent Party who hold most seats on the island and want their own council, and The People's Independent Party which formed after 2022 and won all but one ward on the northern mainland in 2023. Even here in safe Tory territory the localists thanked their victory to disappointment with the national government. Since all the remaining Conservative councilors are up thanks to boundary changes, the PIP could theoretically win a majority off repeating their mainland sweep. Or they could lose control to a Tory rebound off local issues.

[Oryxslayer]

The overall numbers on council candidates:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1777387585918165502?t=IaPFrsSszniA8O1z...

And the Police Commissioners:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1777355066929750038?t=4goP71YajOUX6K1_...

[Oryxslayer]

So I posted about this data-focused Twitter thread in the main GE thread, but I'm going to mention it here as well. Obviously local elections are not national ones, and there are more viable tickets. However,  the polling analysis found that any losses among activist left voters were overwhelmingly drowned out by other votes, and the activists were not exactly dropping off in droves cause the "time for change" drive is so strong.  He also goes on to mention a 10% drop in Labour support in Muslim areas, which is large but they still lead.

Locally,  this would suggest that Labour have little to be afraid of. Students and young activist types have horrible local election turnout rates, and only losing 10% among Muslims will give them most of the defector wards back. But local context and campaigns targeting that context matters,  which may allow for things to diverge from the data.

https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1778706279147397598?t=oNXlk0a3tcOzhX9sFX-d8w...

https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1778707803894436157?t=fNf226Wiyqg1wCK36nNFBQ...

[Oryxslayer]

Estimated declaration times for council local results, which will go into the weekend. Here's a copy of the list, with anything immediately interesting bolded. Overall, I would say the timetable favors Hartlepool, Rushmoor, Southend, or some combination becoming the "Labour surge" narrative setter:


Overnight May 3:


– 1.30 am: Hartlepool, Rochford, Sunderland, Cumbria P&C

– 2 am: Bolton, Gosport, Ipswich, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, North East Lincolnshire, South Tyneside, Wigan

– 2.30 am: Chorley, Eastleigh, Fareham, Hart, Oldham, Portsmouth, Rushmoor, Southend-on-Sea, Avon & Somerset P&C

– 2.45 am: Exeter

– 3 am: Hull, Lincoln, Sefton, Tameside, Thurrock, Lincolnshire P&C

– 3.15 am: Reading

– 3.30 am: Colchester, Gateshead, Harlow, Redditch, Stockport

– 4 am: Peterborough, Plymouth

– 4.30 am: Southampton

– 8.30 am Winchester


May 3 Evening:


– 12 pm: Blackburn with Darwen, Walsall, North East Mayor

– 12.30 pm: Broxbourne, Havant, Tees Valley Mayor

– 1 pm: Cannock Chase, Castle Point, Manchester, Preston, Watford, Welwyn Hatfield, Gwent P&C, North Wales P&C, Nottinghamshire P&C

– 1.30 pm: Burnley, Sheffield, West Oxfordshire, Humberside P&C

– 2 pm: Basildon, Brentwood, Hyndburn, Knowsley, Nuneaton & Bedworth, Rossendale, East Midlands Mayor, Cambridgeshire & Peterborough P&C, Hampshire P&C, Suffolk P&C

– 2.30 pm: Crawley, Rochdale, Solihull

– 3 pm: Barnsley, Hastings, Kirklees, Maidstone, Three Rivers, York & North Yorkshire
Mayor, Bedfordshire P&C, Dyfed-Powys P&C, Norfolk P&C, Surrey P&C

– 3.30 pm: Halton, Milton Keynes, Sandwell, Trafford, Leicestershire P&C

– 4 pm: Adur, Bury, Calderdale, Cheltenham, Epping Forest, Pendle, St Albans, Swindon, Tamworth, Tunbridge Wells, Woking, Wokingham, Essex P&C, Lancashire P&C, Northamptonshire P&C, South Wales P&C, Staffordshire P&C

– 4.30 pm: Dudley, Leeds, Northumbria P&C

– 5 pm: Basingstoke & Deane, Bradford, Cambridge, Coventry, Oxford, Rotherham, Runnymede, Tandridge, Worthing, Cleveland P&C, Devon & Cornwall P&C, Durham P&C, Gloucestershire P&C

– 5.30 pm: Rugby, Wolverhampton, Worcester

– 5.45 pm: Cherwell

– 6 pm: Mole Valley, North Hertfordshire, Reigate & Banstead, Stevenage, Derbyshire P&C, West Mercia P&C

– 6.30 pm: Bristol, Elmbridge

– 7 pm: Dorset, Wakefield

– 8 pm: West Lancashire

– 10 pm: Gloucester


Saturday May 4:


– 12 pm: Liverpool City Mayor

– 1 pm: Hertfordshire P&C

– 1.30 pm: London Mayor (results by district)

– 2 pm: South Yorkshire Mayor, Thames Valley P&C

– 2.30 pm: Warwickshire P&C, West Midlands P&C

– 3 pm: Norwich, West Midlands Mayor, Cheshire P&C, Dorset P&C

– 3.15 pm: West Yorkshire Mayor

– 3.30 pm: Merseyside P&C

– 4 pm: North Tyneside, Stroud, Warrington, Greater Manchester Mayor, Wiltshire P&C

– 7pm Salford Mayor


Sunday May 5:


– 3 pm: Kent P&C

– 3.30 pm: Sussex P&C

– 5 pm: Salford

[Oryxslayer]

How do they make the estimate for when a council will be declared?

They have some kind of information on when counting is due to begin, I would presume.

Each council sets their time based on any number of influencing factors, and then the press eventually creates an aggregate so they know what to talk about and where to look at what time.

[Oryxslayer]

How is the weird east of England mayoral looking? The boundaries really confuse me

Well the boundaries are simple: all the contiguous East Midlands that was willing to join such a deal. Lincolnshire is setting up arrangements for their own combined mayor presently, so they are out. Leicestershire (and Rutland) wanted in, but Leicester city and especially local mayor Sir Peter Soulsby seemingly put his foot down firmly against the deal. Since both the city and the shire needed to join as a pair, they are out. And even if Northamptonshire wanted in they now would be disconnected.

In terms of results...should be strongly for Labour in this environment right? Though that's just a top-down perspective, maybe things are better for Bradley or worse for Ward locally, but nothing comes up under a brief news search.

[Oryxslayer]

Southwest and Hampshire

All Up:

Bristol: 25 Green – 23 Lab – 14 Con – 5 LD – 3 Indies (last in 2021)

Cheltenham: 30 LD – 5 Con – 2 Green – 2 Others – 1 Indie (last in 2022)

Dorset: 43 Con – 27 LD – 5 Green – 2 Lab – 4 Others – 1 Indie (last in 2019)

Gloucester: 21 Con – 14 LD – 2 Lab – 2 Indies (last in 2021)

Stroud: 18 Con – 14 Green – 4 Lab – 3 LD – 12 Indies (last in 2021)

_______________________________________________________________

Fareham: 24 Con – 4 LD – 3 Indies (last in 2022)

Havant: 30 Con – 4 Lab – 2 LD – 1 Green – 1 Indie (5 Con – 2 Lab – 2 LD – 1 Green in 2023)

Partial:

Exeter: 8 Lab – 2 Con – 1 Green – 2 Indies [Council: 24 Lab – 6 Greens – 4 Con – 3 LD – 2 Indies] (7 Lab – 3 Greens – 2 LD – 1 Con in 2023)

Plymouth: 9 Con – 6 Lab – 1 Green – 3 Indies [Council: 33 Lab – 15 Con – 2 Green – 7 Indies] (15 Lab – 1 Con – 3 Indies in 2023)

Swindon: 14 Con – 5 Lab [Council: 32 Lab – 23 Con – 1 LD – 1 Indie] (16 Lab – 2 Con – 1 LD in 2023)

_______________________________________________________________

Basingstoke and Dean: 11 Con - 2 Lab – 2 LD – 2 Others – 1 Indie [Council: 23 Con – 10 Lab – 9 LD – 1 Green – 8 Others – 3 Indies] (6 Con – 5 Lab – 3 LD – 3 Others – 1 Indie in 2023)

Eastleigh: 11 LD – 1 Con – 1 Indie [Council: 35 LD – 1 Con – 3 Indies] (12 LD – 1 Indie in 2023)

Gosport: 9 LD - 4 Con – 1 Lab [Council: 16 LD – 10 Con – 2 Lab] (all up in 2022)

Hart: 6 Con – 3 LD – 2 Others [Council: 11 LD – 11 Con – 10 Others – 1 Indie] (4 LD – 4 Others – 2 Con – 1 Indie in 2023)

Portsmouth: 6 LD – 5 Con – 1 Lab – 2 Indies [Council: 18 LD – 8 Con – 8 Lab – 4 Others – 4 Indies] (7 LD – 2 Lab – 3 Others – 1 Con – 1 Indie in 2023)

Rushmoor: 11 Con – 2 Lab  [Council: 23 Con – 14 Lab – 2 LD] (8 Lab – 4 Con – 1 LD in 2023)

Southampton: 13 Lab – 2 Con – 1 LD – 1 Indie [Council: 37 Lab – 9 Con – 3 LD – 1 Green – 1 Indie] (all up in 2023)

Winchester: 8 LD – 6 Con [Council: 30 LD – 12 Con – 2 Greens – 1 Indie] (13 LD – 2 Con – 1 Green in 2023)

There really isn’t that much up this round in the Southwest, so Hampshire is also getting thrown in to break up the size of the Southeast.





Current councilors Up. When boundary changes force everyone up, the oldest elected councilor is given priority in a ward.



2023 Results in these wards. When all councilors were up, the best performing councilor is given priority in a ward. Additionally, the map looks different cause many of these councils were not up in 2023.

The Biggest prize in the region, perhaps one of the largest in the country this year, is Bristol. But this means more than enough has already been said about the contest, so this will be short. It’s mainly a fight between the Greens and the Labour incumbents. The Greens launched their national campaign here but doing so focused more on housing than the environment. Labour are tarnished by the outgoing (and final) city mayor. On paper though Labour have more upside, with the Greens historically confined to the city centre where they hold most but not all wards. Whereas Labour could maintain power through taking voters and seats from the other groups on the council, like in Brighton last year, while also benefiting from a favorable national environment.

Outside of Bristol, Labour’s three other councils should be safe. Nominally if they lose every councilor than all three councils can fall, but realistically that will not happen. A majority of the Tory councilors are up in all three, previously brought in by the 2021 wave, a wave felt noticeably more in Swindon and Plymouth than Exeter. Labour got their own 2023 wave in Plymouth and Swindon, taking almost every ward and flipping both councils. The former was thanks to poor Conservative greenspace policies wreaking destruction on their caucus and prompting a local backlash, whereas the latter benefited from extreme Labour campaign resource allocation. So, while a repetition of the overwhelming 2023 Labour wave here may be difficult, numerous gains off the overexposed Conservatives are still likely. In Exeter the Greens could make gains of Labour like in 2023, even as Labour makes gains of the Tories and the formerly Labour independents.

Similarly, Cheltenham should be safe for the Liberal Democrats, even though every seat is up cause of minimal boundary changes. One must look back almost two decades to find a time when the Tories had control, 2.5 for a Blue majority. The Lib-Dems won 18 of 21 wards in 2022 when the council last had election, and that was before the total Tory collapse.

Dorset is another (close to) straight fight between the Tories and the Lib-Dems, only this time the Tories are starting with a weak majority of 4 over the combined opposition. The council was last up in 2019, when the region amalgamated from several smaller predecessors. Those predecessors were not the best territory for the Lib-Dems, with the 90s being the last time they held power in most of them. The fragile state of the Conservatives other parts of the southwest, including the more urban but adjacent Bournemouth though suggests this should be an easy Lib-Dem flip.

Gloucester was one of the first stops for Sunak on the local and shadow-GE campaign, even as local Tories fear a wipeout-level disaster. All Councilors were last up in 2021 when the Tories won a wave-boosted majority and reduced Labour to 3 seats. This, complimented by a subsequent defection, made the Lib-Dems the largest opposition. Looking back though the Lib-Dems have traditionally been confined to the wards in their side of the city, with Labour targeting the rest and forming the most recent non-Tory majority 25 years ago. With the current environment being more anti-Tory than pro-Labour how the seats fall remains uncertain. Labour could rebound, the Lib-Dems could advance from their strong initial position, or things could fragment in all directions.

Then there is Stroud. The Tories won a plurality here in 2021, but Labour were able to reforge the coalition with the growing Green group that had been working since 2012. Then almost all their councilors defected: 10 in reaction to a poor choice of GE candidates (imposed?) by the national party here, 1 in further response to Gaza. The new administration would be led by the Greens, with some of the ex-Labourites and Lib-Dems. With the Tory brand in disarray nationally, and Labour brand potentially in chaos locally, this could be an opportunity for big Green gains, as recognized by their statements during the Bristol launch party. A potentially resurgent Labour coming back to their previously held (and additional Tory) wards through the favorable national environment, is the main threat - potentially boosted by local issues surrounding the council’s Local Plan for development.



Now to Hampshire, Labour has only two straight-fight councils here, and they already hold one. Southampton Labour’s position is so dominant, after last year’s all-up boundary change election, that as long as they hold 1 seat up this year they maintain control. One might even say they are very slightly overexposed in this class: these are the third-place finishers from 2023 and therefore the spot most likely to be held by a beneficiary of ticket-splitting.

Rushmoor Labour meanwhile are going offensive for potential control, and maybe even the majority - something they have never won before. After Labour nearly swept the council in 2023 they now hold the most seats the party has had since before Blair. Opposing them this time is the overexposed 2021 Tory wave class, which is why such a flip is possible. If 2023 is repeated Labour make 6 gains for a majority of 1. Labour additionally failed to take St John's and West Heath Wards by 14 and 27 votes respectively, so their target list is theoretically even larger.  But even if they miss this mark the two and potentially a new third Lib-Dem councilor gives them more than enough leeway for minority control. With its early deceleration time during the midnight count, Rushmore may be the council that sets the theme for election results commentary.

The Lib-Dems similarly already hold all the Hampshire straight fight councils between them and the Conservatives. The Lib-Dems have enough councilors to maintain control in both Eastleigh and Winchester before any results are declared. This fact is potentially important in Eastleigh, where a large council debt became apparent this year, and there is the potential for a local backlash in contrast to the national environment. Lib-Dem gains through are still possible in Winchester.

Compared to the previous two, it wouldn’t take much for the Lib-Dem’s to lose control of Gosport. They won a majority by 1 seat when all councilors were up in 2022 under new lines. This majority was built off voters in two wards splitting their tickets and giving the Lib-Dems the second seat, even though the Tories won the first. So in theory control could fall from majority to minority. In practice, since there doesn't appear to be any local controversy, the Lib-Dems should maintain the majority and could make one or two gains through the anti-Tory national environment.  

Portsmouth deserves special mention because of the peculiar situation. There are enough seats up for the Lib-Dems to make their long-standing minority a majority, but that’s unlikely to happen. The Conservatives are still losing seats in droves: they only held 1 and 2 seats in their former northern stronghold during 2023 and 2022 respectively. These losses though are flowing to the localist Portsmouth Independent grouping, and Labour -  who are also making limited gains off the Lib-Dems. The 5 Tory seats up this year is over half their remaining delegation, so the potential losses will be significant. Especially given whose parliamentary seat they are in. But unless the Lib-Dems also lose a significant number of seats they will still lead the minority.

Two councils adjacent to Portsmouth are more friendly to the Tories, or as much as any normal Conservative area can be in this environment. Both Havant and Fareham councils are all up after boundary changes. Both have in recent years returned near-total Tory slates. However, Havant in 2023 offered a peculiar set of results. The lack of opposition meant Tory losses went in every direction, but they still held onto a band of seats in the west of the council. If repeated with every councilor up the Tories would end up with a large minority, but given their overall dominance here a small majority with large losses seems more likely. This is perhaps what could also happen in Fareham, though with a greater Lib-Dem presence. The last Fareham election was in 2022, when the Tories won landslides in both councils, so no direct precedent to look for. And again, the results could have national significance given who the MP for Fareham presently is...something that actually could end up potentially effecting voter behavior like in Stratford-on-Avon in 2023.

Independent groups play a key roll in Hart and Basingstoke councils. In Hart the Community Campaign Localist group is strong in the southeast around Fleet and Crookham, the Lib-Dems strong in the towns north of Farnborough, and the Tories still strong in western wards. This has been the situation since the localist group emerged in 2012, with change only previously happening when the localists switched partners. Despite this impasse, the Tories hold several seats won by the Lib-Dems or CC in 2023, so they could still fall back further. Basingstoke and Dean meanwhile is governed by a Frankenstein coalition of everyone against the Tories, which took over in 2023. The largest opposition group, the Labour contingent from mostly Basingstoke town, however are not formally part of the localist-led mess. This will likely change since it is Labour who have the potential for the most gains off the 2021 Troy wave councilors in said urban town wards, especially since they are looking to build campaign infrastructure here for the GE. A new administration will likely need to be formed, whether that be with a larger Labour and Lib-Dems or with the Independents turning to the Tories.

[Oryxslayer]

I see no evidence that local Tories fear a wipeout in Gloucester. The local Labour Party is probably the most incompetent in the whole country (in a competitive area).

Well see there's the type of thing that I can't tell from a bids eye view, so thank you. But I will note that the 'wipeout' thing is real: Here's the local source I found of the council fearing the environment will pull them under.

[Oryxslayer]

Is it possible BBC or Sky News will report results of local by elections in councils where there isn’t a scheduled election?

Maybe if the result does something important to local power or the national narrative? I don't think so. However,  the twitter reporters which do cover local contests year round (BritainElects for example) will have the results of solitary by-elections in non-participating councils.

[Oryxslayer]

any chance Labour can gain Sheffield?

Theoretically possible but rather unlikely given the number of councillors who left their group this year. Even if that hadn't been the case it would have been touch and go.

My impression is that the Greens and especially the Lib-Dems have enough wards locked down that the city can never leave NOC barring a change in local preferences. 

Buy does it actually matter when all 3 are kinda working together?

[Oryxslayer]

My impression is that the Greens and especially the Lib-Dems have enough wards locked down that the city can never leave NOC barring a change in local preferences. 

They have very few seats locked down. What they do have is a large number of seats that have been very marginal at some point in the last few years but never actually flip to Labour.

TY. Cause on paper Labour overall - not counting the classes and whatnot and before the defections - the path to a majority seemed so narrow that its just far more likely to bet against Labour given all the moving parts against them. Good to hear things lean a bit more towards fluidity than calcification.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1781626600510951928?t=zJ55QbSmSTbxO8LE...

A interesting result,  given that Houchen has faced so many issues in in recent times. Maybe these two Tory mayors retained more appeal than we thought...or these polls have an issue accounting for the electorate given it's reduced size and how regular voters cycle in and out of it depending on the environment.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1781625491755057624?t=2buZN59JdXXoEZ4j...