European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Zinneke]

Also saw this today:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/996765544459243520
Any other "eco-socialist" parties that could join them? I guess it's doubtful the Portuguese, Greeks and Danes make it in, though...

This must be the Varoufakis project, DiEM25. So his own new party, MeRA 25, will probably run with them as well, but I have no idea whether he will able to win a seat in Greece. I think the Czech Pirates is a part of it, and they would likely do very well. Barcelona mayor Ada Colau has been involved too, but I don't know whether any of the parties backing her could join. Unlike Eurovision, Australia won't take part, so I guess we won't see the Wikileaks Party

Lol, what would this be, the "we used to be famous" group?

Given the Belgian PS looks like it wants to join this movement, yes.

[Ethelberth]

Noise activity. None of the member parties are likely to get people elected. An alliance of unelected politicians. Alternativet and Razem may get elected, but this like Libertas back in History, De Villiers got elected since MPF had enough hardcore supporters to be elected. If the toxicated and AFD go to ENF, Five-star-movement could form a group with these guys.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Doubt it, Varafoukis' schtick is that he is eurofederalist leftist, and the starmen are neither of those things.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Noise activity. None of the member parties are likely to get people elected. An alliance of unelected politicians. Alternativet and Razem may get elected, but this like Libertas back in History, De Villiers got elected since MPF had enough hardcore supporters to be elected. If the toxicated and AFD go to ENF, Five-star-movement could form a group with these guys.

Wait what, you said that Razem would form a group with M5S?

[Ethelberth]

In real life, what party will Kukiz and Razem join?.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

In real life, what party will Kukiz and Razem join?.

Surely Razem would go in GUE and Kukiz in with whatever the FN group is calling itself? (There is also the matter of Korwin's new party...)

[DavidB.]

I think an EFD in which M5S takes over the place is not so unlikely to survive either. There are quite some parties that don't want to be in ENF (too toxic profile with Le Pen, Strache, Wilders, probably Gauland) but aren't particularly enthused by the "soft" ECR either (though ECR without the Tories will be led by PiS, perhaps more attractive to some parties). EFD without UKIP will be both sufficiently euroskeptical and sufficiently vague for these parties. Could see parties like Kukiz and Dutch FVD join them. SD could also stay in if they don't go to ECR. Then add a few small Baltic nationalist parties and you're almost there.

Kataak said that Kukiz isn't particularly interested in "hard nationalism" and neither do they want to leave the EU, so they probably won't join ENF.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Although by Western European standards probably half of the Polish Sejm MP would be considered as hard-line nationalists we must take into consideration that we are talking about Poland and Polish political scene so as nationalists I label only those people who consider themselves as nationalists, National Democrats etc.

Kukiz is very problematic due to few issues:


1) They are not a political party from a formal point of view, rather chain of umbrella organisations for various groups. There is parliamentary club Kukiz'15 and there is also NGO Stowarzyszenie Kukiz'15. Due to name probably you can guess who is the most important person inside all those organisations. All of them are ruled by Paweł Kukiz and generally if someone have problem about cooperation with him usually end not being member of his organisations. We still don't know what will be strategy of Kukiz for EP elections. He is a little bit unpredictable, changing his mind often so as for now we just can only guess.

2) As for now the conliberal (rather focused on economy, low taxes, economic liberty but more flexible than Korwinists) faction is the strongest in the parliamentary club so knowing history of for example Korwin MEPs, Kukiz MEPs might end in various factions similarly. There is some sort of liquidity in group of that particular type of politicians, they in one point of their career might end up in centre-right organisations but also might turn into some sort of nationalist. What is interesting is fact that cooperation with Korwin is not really going well even taking into consideration similar political views (especially in field of economy) with some of the Kukiz MPs. What is more, Korwin groupies are usually not fans of Kukiz.

3) There were indeed nationalists elected from the Kukiz'15 electoral lists but as for now they are mostly outside the Kukiz'15 club. Their strategy from 2015 was successful (sort of Trojan horse tactics where Kukiz list was a Trojan horse) but as for now probably Kukiz as he is more experienced will be more reluctant in making such electoral deals. There were attempts to consolidate those circles which were on one hand somewhere near Kukiz and nationalist concerning political views but it failed and was buried few months ago. As for now the nationalist camp is weakened and disorganized, divided into ca. 4 major camps and 10 farcial organisations (that type of groups of ca. 15 people who have channel on YT which usually is called NATIONAL TV or something and 99% of their activity is some sort of protest, recording it and uploading on youtube) and I doubt any of them at the moment can successfully participate in the EP elections. Even low turnout will not help them if there will be no some political earthquake in Poland or Europe.

4) Kukiz brought to Sejm few MPs which were not politicians, known politicians or were forgotten politicians and they left Kukiz or were kicked out of his treehouse and now they are independent. There is Wolni i Solidarni, political organisation of Kornel Morawiecki (father of current PM of Poland, veteran anti-communist dissident which few years ago was considered as totally irrelevant and even pitiful politician, in presidential elections in 2010 he got only 0,13% of votes and was last, he was continuously failing to get any sort of relevance and political success) which now build his structures and seek to have coalition in local elections with PiS. Such initiatives might influence what Kukiz will do and how will he behave so we must also take into consideration that Kukiz have a lot of so called anti-establishment (not even mentioning that PiS is also anti-establishment while being sort of paralel establishment, Polish stuff which explaining will require another post) and protest parties.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

In real life, what party will Kukiz and Razem join?.

In real life, what party will Kukiz and Razem join?.

Surely Razem would go in GUE and Kukiz in with whatever the FN group is calling itself? (There is also the matter of Korwin's new party...)

I am a member of Razem and this is a matter of some internal debate within the party. The issue is that nobody in the party really wants to join S&D, which is seen as having too moderate a profile and also contains SLD, which is a domestic opponent, but the obvious alternative is GUE and a lot of people are iffy about joining an EP group which includes open Communists and tankies as such an association might damage Razem's domestic electoral prospects. At the moment they are very much hoping that Varoufakis' thing actually takes off and spares them having to choose between S&D and GUE, but if it doesn't (and it is unlikely to), the approach seems to be 'we'll cross that bridge if/when we come to it (if/when we actually win seats)'.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

In real life, what party will Kukiz and Razem join?.

In real life, what party will Kukiz and Razem join?.

Surely Razem would go in GUE and Kukiz in with whatever the FN group is calling itself? (There is also the matter of Korwin's new party...)

I am a member of Razem and this is a matter of some internal debate within the party. The issue is that nobody in the party really wants to join S&D, which is seen as having too moderate a profile and also contains SLD, which is a domestic opponent, but the obvious alternative is GUE and a lot of people are iffy about joining an EP group which includes open Communists and tankies as such an association might damage Razem's domestic electoral prospects. At the moment they are very much hoping that Varoufakis' thing actually takes off and spares them having to choose between S&D and GUE, but if it doesn't (and it is unlikely to), the approach seems to be 'we'll cross that bridge if/when we come to it (if/when we actually win seats)'.

Can't even imagine Razem in one faction with Linke or KSČM, but probably Crabcake was thinking about similarities with Podemos which might help start some sort of cooperation.

[Former President tack50]

In real life, what party will Kukiz and Razem join?.

In real life, what party will Kukiz and Razem join?.

Surely Razem would go in GUE and Kukiz in with whatever the FN group is calling itself? (There is also the matter of Korwin's new party...)

I am a member of Razem and this is a matter of some internal debate within the party. The issue is that nobody in the party really wants to join S&D, which is seen as having too moderate a profile and also contains SLD, which is a domestic opponent, but the obvious alternative is GUE and a lot of people are iffy about joining an EP group which includes open Communists and tankies as such an association might damage Razem's domestic electoral prospects. At the moment they are very much hoping that Varoufakis' thing actually takes off and spares them having to choose between S&D and GUE, but if it doesn't (and it is unlikely to), the approach seems to be 'we'll cross that bridge if/when we come to it (if/when we actually win seats)'.

Can't even imagine Razem in one faction with Linke or KSČM, but probably Crabcake was thinking about similarities with Podemos which might help start some sort of cooperation.

If they really don't want to be seen with Linke or KSCM, but also don't want to join S&D, I guess they could join the G-EFA group even though they aren't an explicitly green party?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

In real life, what party will Kukiz and Razem join?.

In real life, what party will Kukiz and Razem join?.

Surely Razem would go in GUE and Kukiz in with whatever the FN group is calling itself? (There is also the matter of Korwin's new party...)

I am a member of Razem and this is a matter of some internal debate within the party. The issue is that nobody in the party really wants to join S&D, which is seen as having too moderate a profile and also contains SLD, which is a domestic opponent, but the obvious alternative is GUE and a lot of people are iffy about joining an EP group which includes open Communists and tankies as such an association might damage Razem's domestic electoral prospects. At the moment they are very much hoping that Varoufakis' thing actually takes off and spares them having to choose between S&D and GUE, but if it doesn't (and it is unlikely to), the approach seems to be 'we'll cross that bridge if/when we come to it (if/when we actually win seats)'.

Can't even imagine Razem in one faction with Linke or KSČM, but probably Crabcake was thinking about similarities with Podemos which might help start some sort of cooperation.

Actually, Razem do have some ties to Linke (at one point last year I was asked if I was interested in going to Berlin to represent Razem at some conference Linke were hosting, but I declined as I don't speak any German), but it is, again, a fairly controversial issue.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, why not the European Greens for Razem?

Although by Western European standards probably half of the Polish Sejm MP would be considered as hard-line nationalists

I mean, half the Polish Sejm MPs are in PiS...

[parochial boy]

In real life, what party will Kukiz and Razem join?.

In real life, what party will Kukiz and Razem join?.

Surely Razem would go in GUE and Kukiz in with whatever the FN group is calling itself? (There is also the matter of Korwin's new party...)

I am a member of Razem and this is a matter of some internal debate within the party. The issue is that nobody in the party really wants to join S&D, which is seen as having too moderate a profile and also contains SLD, which is a domestic opponent, but the obvious alternative is GUE and a lot of people are iffy about joining an EP group which includes open Communists and tankies as such an association might damage Razem's domestic electoral prospects. At the moment they are very much hoping that Varoufakis' thing actually takes off and spares them having to choose between S&D and GUE, but if it doesn't (and it is unlikely to), the approach seems to be 'we'll cross that bridge if/when we come to it (if/when we actually win seats)'.

Is that really a concern? I mean, how many people could even name a Euro parliamentary group, let alone who is in any of them?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Yeah, why not the European Greens for Razem?

It doesn't seem to be under consideration for several reasons:

1) Many of the people who started Razem defected from the Polish Greens and there is still animosity between the parties, and the Polish Greens, despite their irrelevance, cooperate heavily with the German Greens
2) Razem's stance on nuclear power is an awkward compromise between pro- and anti-nuclear wings of the party

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

In real life, what party will Kukiz and Razem join?.

In real life, what party will Kukiz and Razem join?.

Surely Razem would go in GUE and Kukiz in with whatever the FN group is calling itself? (There is also the matter of Korwin's new party...)

I am a member of Razem and this is a matter of some internal debate within the party. The issue is that nobody in the party really wants to join S&D, which is seen as having too moderate a profile and also contains SLD, which is a domestic opponent, but the obvious alternative is GUE and a lot of people are iffy about joining an EP group which includes open Communists and tankies as such an association might damage Razem's domestic electoral prospects. At the moment they are very much hoping that Varoufakis' thing actually takes off and spares them having to choose between S&D and GUE, but if it doesn't (and it is unlikely to), the approach seems to be 'we'll cross that bridge if/when we come to it (if/when we actually win seats)'.

Is that really a concern? I mean, how many people could even name a Euro parliamentary group, let alone who is in any of them?

I agree, but many in the party fear it would be publicised heavily in an election campaign.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Yeah, why not the European Greens for Razem?

It doesn't seem to be under consideration for several reasons:

1) Many of the people who started Razem defected from the Polish Greens and there is still animosity between the parties, and the Polish Greens, despite their irrelevance, cooperate heavily with the German Greens
2) Razem's stance on nuclear power is an awkward compromise between pro- and anti-nuclear wings of the party

As far as I observe Polish left infobubble between Razem and Greens there is also issue of GMO, but you as a member probably have better knowledge about "ordinary member" views on that issue.

As for the knowledge about EP groups if you would like to do an experiment and try to find people with such knowledge there are bigger chances that you will find them in parties with young electorate like Razem or Korwin than any other parties. So probably this is not that big issue for the typical voter but if controversial alliance in EP have chances to backfire it have much bigger chances to happen in Razem than in other mainstream parties.

Yeah, why not the European Greens for Razem?

Although by Western European standards probably half of the Polish Sejm MP would be considered as hard-line nationalists

I mean, half the Polish Sejm MPs are in PiS...

One thing is narration and what leaders and key people in party are saying and doing and other thing is who ordinary MP is. And often those PiS "backbenchers" are not that much different from for example PO members and not even mentioning PSL. There are various factions in PiS and party is not a monolith.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

As far as I observe Polish left infobubble between Razem and Greens there is also issue of GMO, but you as a member probably have better knowledge about "ordinary member" views on that issue.

I had forgotten the GMO issue, you're right that that might be another potential sticking point.

[TheSaint250]

Besides Macron’s and Varoufakis’s possible groups, are there any other possible new groups?

[Ethelberth]

Varoufakis could be  a subgroup of larger group (like Northern Green Left).  The 25/7 rule is a  major obstacle to form a new group, because it basically needs one big party from three big countries (after UK has left the building).

[Diouf]

Besides Macron’s and Varoufakis’s possible groups, are there any other possible new groups?

Well, potentially the liberal parties could be divided in two. Macron-supporters, social liberals in one group, and then centre-right parties with relatively tough immigration policies in the other (Venstre, VVD, ANO, perhaps FDP?). So that would likely be a new group as well. I'm not sure how realistic it is; there is always a degree of path dependency. And for a fully established party like ALDE, parties will be reluctant to break it up. And there will likely be more power for one big group than two smaller ones. For a number of these parties, there will also be an internal debate about where it belongs in these two groups. The two top candidates for the Danish Liberals, Morten Løkkegaard and Søren Gade, have very contrasting views about whether Guy Verhofstadt's vision is a force for good.

The ECR and the far-right groups could be re-organized with new members and perhaps a new name as well.

[Former President tack50]

Decided to check current legislative opinion polls to see who was winning and see how the map would look like now. Obviously this is mostly just academic, as European elections =/= national legislative elections, we are still 1 year away from the election, etc. But still here it is:



Couldn't find any Bulgarian, Cyprus or Lithuanian polls, so I just took whoever won the most recient legislative election (GERB and DISY for the first 2, both EPP. Union of Farmers for Lithuania, G/EFA)

Also just for fun, with the new apportionment and a US style election the results would be (353/705 to win):

EPP: 219
ALDE: 195
S&D: 131
EFDD: 76
ECR: 73
G-EFA: 11

So it would go to a "contingent election". Since EPP won a lot more countries I guess they'd be the favourites but who knows?

In terms of pan-European results, not much other than the interesting EPP band going from Germany all the way to Greece and Cyprus through the former Yugoslavia. S&D performing well in Scandinavia. Though these takes are even more garbage than the map itself.

[Ethelberth]

In Finland, there has been debate about the Finns joining Swedish Democrats in the same group (whatever would that be). Since Soini left the party, there should be no obstacles for that.

[DavidB.]

In Finland, there has been debate about the Finns joining Swedish Democrats in the same group (whatever would that be). Since Soini left the party, there should be no obstacles for that.

It could still be that SD join ECR (and the Finns). ECR without the Tories is a markedly more right-wing group than ECR with the Tories, especially since PiS will be the largest party (probably by far). At the same time, it would make sense for PS to move one group to the right, to EFD, SD's current group. Ideologically, even a move to ENF would make sense for PS (not so much for SD), but they might want to avoid this for domestic reasons.

[TheSaint250]

It seems like without the Tories ECR and EFDD will be occupying relatively the same space, some to the left and others to the right of the mainstream in each group